Gillingham v 
Newport County
Match statistics
| Gillingham | Newport County | |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Shots | 15 |
| 1 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 17 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 1 | Offsides | 2 |
| 512 | Passes | 248 |
| 67% | Possession % | 33% |
| — | xG | — |
- Over 1.5
- 79%
- Over 2.5
- 56%
- Over 3.5
- 33%
- Both score
- 60%
- Model pick
- Gillingham 39%
- Likely score
- 1-1 12%
- Expected goals
- 1.50 – 1.41
Advised bets
Lost
Free pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Newport County
Why this price?
Back Newport County to win at 3.50 with Bet365.
Our model puts the chance at 35%, which is a fair price of 2.86. The offered 3.50 implies only 29%, so the price is 22.4% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Gillingham 1.50, Newport County 1.41.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 4 of 5Over 3.5
Why this price?
Back over 3.5 goals at 3.61 with Pinnacle — 4 goals or more in the match.
Our model puts the chance at 33%, which is a fair price of 2.99. The offered 3.61 implies only 28%, so the price is 20.6% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.98 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Gillingham 1.50, Newport County 1.41.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Gillingham | 39.0% | 2.57 | 2.10 BetVictor | 47.6% | -8.6 |
| Match result | Draw | 26.0% | 3.84 | 3.65 Betano | 27.4% | -1.4 |
| Match result | Newport County | 35.0% | 2.86 | 4.10 BetVictor | 24.4% | +10.6 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 79.5% | 1.26 | 1.31 Betano | 76.3% | +3.2 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 20.5% | 4.88 | 3.50 Bet365 | 28.6% | -8.1 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 55.8% | 1.79 | 2.00 Betano | 50.0% | +5.8 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 44.2% | 2.26 | 1.87 Betfair | 53.5% | -9.3 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 33.4% | 2.99 | 3.40 Bet365 | 29.4% | +4.0 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 66.6% | 1.50 | 1.31 Betano | 76.3% | -9.7 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 59.5% | 1.68 | 1.83 Betano | 54.6% | +4.9 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 40.5% | 2.47 | 2.00 Bet365 | 50.0% | -9.5 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Gillingham v Newport County: too close to call
Our model makes Gillingham 39% to win this League Two fixture, with the draw at 26% and Newport County at 35%. The goal projection is 1.50 for Gillingham against 1.41 for Newport County — almost nothing to Gillingham on expected output. A combined 2.92 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 56% and both teams to score at 60%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 12%
- 2-1 9%
- 1-2 8%
- 1-0 7%
- 0-1 7%
This season
| Gillingham | Newport County | |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Played | 14 |
| 5-5-4 | W-D-L | 4-6-4 |
| 1.43 | Pts / game | 1.29 |
| 1.43 | Goals for / game | 1.43 |
| 1.36 | Goals against / game | 1.21 |
| 57% | Over 2.5 | 50% |
| 57% | BTTS | 57% |
| 29% | Clean sheets | 29% |
| 29% | Failed to score | 29% |
| 2-3-2 | Home record | 4-3-0 |
| 3-2-2 | Away record | 0-3-4 |
| W1 | Streak | W1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Gillingham · Newport County
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 8.1 | Shots | 14.4 |
|---|---|---|
| 2.3 | Shots on target | 4.0 |
| 3.3 | Corners | 4.7 |
| 3.00 | Cards | 1.86 |
| 15.4 | Fouls | 14.0 |
| 46 | Possession % | 38 |
| 1.31 | xG | 1.44 |
| 7 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Conceded
| 16.0 | Shots | 10.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.9 | Shots on target | 2.6 |
| 5.1 | Corners | 2.4 |
| 2.14 | Cards | 3.00 |
| 10.3 | Fouls | 14.1 |
| 54 | Possession % | 61 |
| 1.70 | xG | 1.21 |
| 7 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Form comparison
| Gillingham | Metric | Newport County |
|---|---|---|
| 2.00 (better) | Goals scored | 1.00 |
| 1.60 | Goals conceded | 0.60 (better) |
| 1.74 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.21 |
| Big chances | ||
| 3.60 | Shots on target | 3.60 |
| 9.20 | Total shots | 11.60 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 3.60 | Corners | 4.60 (better) |
| 48.4 (better) | Possession % | 42.4 |
| 366 (better) | Passes | 293 |
| Tackles | ||
| 11.60 | Fouls | 11.60 |
| 2.60 | Offsides | 2.00 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.80 | Yellow cards | 1.20 (better) |
| 0.33 | Red cards | 0.00 (better) |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Gillingham wins
- 2
- Draws
- 2
- Newport County wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 2.75
- Over 2.5
- 50%
- Both score
- 75%
- Gillingham v Newport County0–02026-10-03
- Gillingham v Newport County3–22026-01-17
- Newport County v Gillingham1–12025-11-01
- Newport County v Gillingham1–32025-09-20
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salford City | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | +10 | 31 | Salford City won 5 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Barnet | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | +10 | 26 | Barnet won 2 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Walsall | 13 | 5 | 7 | 1 | +9 | 22 | Walsall won 2 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Crewe | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 22 | Crewe won 2 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Cheltenham | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 21 | Cheltenham won 2 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Grimsby | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | +6 | 20 | Grimsby won 2 of the last 5 |
| 7 | York | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | +3 | 20 | York won 1 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Gillingham | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 20 | Gillingham won 2 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Accrington ST | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | +6 | 19 | Accrington ST won 2 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Chesterfield | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | +3 | 19 | Chesterfield won 1 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Tranmere | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | +2 | 19 | Tranmere won 2 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Exeter City | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | +2 | 19 | Exeter City won 3 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Swindon Town | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 19 | Swindon Town won 2 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Newport County | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | +3 | 18 | Newport County won 2 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Shrewsbury | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -5 | 18 | Shrewsbury won 2 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Fleetwood Town | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 17 | Fleetwood Town won 2 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Bristol Rovers | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | -6 | 16 | Bristol Rovers won 0 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Oldham | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 15 | Oldham won 2 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Port Vale | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 15 | Port Vale won 3 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Rochdale | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 15 | Rochdale won 0 of the last 5 |
| 21 | Northampton | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -1 | 14 | Northampton won 2 of the last 5 |
| 22 | Rotherham | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | -7 | 12 | Rotherham won 0 of the last 5 |
| 23 | Colchester | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | -7 | 12 | Colchester won 0 of the last 5 |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 9 | Crawley Town won 1 of the last 5 |