Getafe v 
Brighton
Match statistics
| Getafe | Brighton | |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Shots | 15 |
| 4 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| — | Red cards | — |
| 3 | Offsides | 1 |
| 292 | Passes | 469 |
| 39% | Possession % | 61% |
| 0.26 | xG | 1.64 |
- Over 1.5
- 72%
- Over 2.5
- 46%
- Over 3.5
- 25%
- Both score
- 48%
- Model pick
- Brighton 55%
- Likely score
- 0-1 13%
- Expected goals
- 0.88 – 1.64
Advised bets
WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 4 of 5Brighton +0.25
Why this price?
Back Brighton +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 1.42 with Bet365 — Brighton starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.
Our model puts the chance at 78% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 75%; we judge it at 76%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.31. The offered 1.42 implies only 70%, so the price is 8.5% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Getafe 0.88, Brighton 1.64.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Getafe | 19.4% | 5.16 | 6.25 Bet365 | 16.0% | +3.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 25.7% | 3.89 | 4.30 Dafabet | 23.3% | +2.4 |
| Match result | Brighton | 54.9% | 1.82 | 1.69 Dafabet | 59.2% | -4.2 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 72.3% | 1.38 | 1.29 Betano | 77.5% | -5.3 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 27.7% | 3.61 | 4.10 Betfair | 24.4% | +3.3 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 46.1% | 2.17 | 1.95 Bet365 | 51.3% | -5.1 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 53.9% | 1.86 | 2.00 Betfair | 50.0% | +3.9 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 24.7% | 4.05 | 3.40 Bet365 | 29.4% | -4.7 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 75.3% | 1.33 | 1.39 Betano | 71.9% | +3.4 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 47.7% | 2.10 | 1.95 Betano | 51.3% | -3.6 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 52.3% | 1.91 | 1.91 William Hill | 52.4% | -0.0 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Brighton favoured against Getafe
Our model makes Getafe 19% to win this UEFA Europa Conference League fixture, with the draw at 26% and Brighton at 55%. The goal projection is 0.88 for Getafe against 1.64 for Brighton — a substantial edge to Brighton on expected output. A combined 2.52 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 46% and both teams to score at 48%. The single most likely scoreline is 0-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 0-1 13%
- 1-1 12%
- 0-2 11%
- 1-2 10%
- 0-0 9%
This season
| Getafe | Brighton | |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Played | 10 |
| 3-3-6 | W-D-L | 7-1-2 |
| 1.00 | Pts / game | 2.20 |
| 0.67 | Goals for / game | 2.60 |
| 1.50 | Goals against / game | 0.70 |
| 33% | Over 2.5 | 50% |
| 33% | BTTS | 20% |
| 17% | Clean sheets | 70% |
| 50% | Failed to score | 10% |
| 3-3-0 | Home record | 4-1-0 |
| 0-0-6 | Away record | 3-0-2 |
| L1 | Streak | W2 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Getafe · Brighton
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 12.1 | Shots | 18.6 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.6 | Shots on target | 4.9 |
| 5.0 | Corners | 6.0 |
| 3.41 | Cards | 2.53 |
| 13.8 | Fouls | 12.0 |
| 38 | Possession % | 58 |
| 0.88 | xG | 1.86 |
| 11 matches | sample | 9 matches |
Conceded
| 15.4 | Shots | 9.8 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.2 | Shots on target | 2.8 |
| 5.5 | Corners | 4.4 |
| 2.80 | Cards | 1.31 |
| 12.8 | Fouls | 9.2 |
| 62 | Possession % | 42 |
| 1.41 | xG | 0.77 |
| 11 matches | sample | 9 matches |
Form comparison
| Getafe | Metric | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| 0.80 | Goals scored | 2.20 (better) |
| 2.80 | Goals conceded | 0.80 (better) |
| 1.01 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.16 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 3.40 | Shots on target | 5.80 (better) |
| 12.40 | Total shots | 22.40 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 6.60 | Corners | 7.40 (better) |
| 40.6 | Possession % | 62.8 (better) |
| 366 | Passes | 550 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 11.40 (better) | Fouls | 13.20 |
| 1.40 (better) | Offsides | 2.75 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 3.00 | Yellow cards | 1.60 (better) |
| 1.00 | Red cards | 0.00 (better) |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Getafe wins
- 0
- Draws
- 0
- Brighton wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 1.00
- Over 2.5
- 0%
- Both score
- 0%
- Getafe v Brighton0–12026-11-05
UEFA Europa Conference League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Lugano | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +7 | 9 | FC Lugano won 3 of the last 3 |
| 2 | Panathinaikos | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +6 | 9 | Panathinaikos won 3 of the last 3 |
| 3 | Twente | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +6 | 9 | Twente won 3 of the last 3 |
| 4 | Monaco | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +6 | 9 | Monaco won 3 of the last 3 |
| 5 | Brighton | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 7 | Brighton won 2 of the last 3 |
| 6 | Brann | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 7 | Brann won 2 of the last 3 |
| 7 | FC Copenhagen | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 7 | FC Copenhagen won 2 of the last 3 |
| 8 | Universitatea Craiova | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 7 | Universitatea Craiova won 2 of the last 3 |
| 9 | Mjallby AIF | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 7 | Mjallby AIF won 2 of the last 3 |
| 10 | St. Truiden | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 7 | St. Truiden won 2 of the last 3 |
| 11 | Ajax | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +6 | 6 | Ajax won 2 of the last 3 |
| 12 | Trabzonspor | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 6 | Trabzonspor won 2 of the last 3 |
| 13 | HNK Hajduk Split | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 6 | HNK Hajduk Split won 2 of the last 3 |
| 14 | SC Freiburg | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 6 | SC Freiburg won 2 of the last 3 |
| 15 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | FK Crvena Zvezda won 1 of the last 3 |
| 16 | Atalanta | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | Atalanta won 1 of the last 3 |
| 17 | SC Braga | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 | SC Braga won 1 of the last 3 |
| 18 | Gent | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 | Gent won 1 of the last 3 |
| 19 | FC Thun | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | FC Thun won 1 of the last 3 |
| 20 | Riga | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Riga won 0 of the last 3 |
| 21 | Borac Banja Luka | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 | Borac Banja Luka won 1 of the last 3 |
| 22 | Lincoln Red Imps FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 | Lincoln Red Imps FC won 1 of the last 3 |
| 23 | FK Jablonec | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 | FK Jablonec won 0 of the last 3 |
| 24 | Aarhus | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 | Aarhus won 0 of the last 3 |
| 25 | FC Nordsjaelland | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 | FC Nordsjaelland won 0 of the last 3 |
| 26 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë won 0 of the last 3 |
| 27 | Kairat Almaty | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -4 | 2 | Kairat Almaty won 0 of the last 3 |
| 28 | CSKA Sofia | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 | CSKA Sofia won 0 of the last 3 |
| 29 | FC Iberia 1999 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 | FC Iberia 1999 won 0 of the last 3 |
| 30 | Getafe | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 | Getafe won 0 of the last 3 |
| 31 | Pafos | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 | Pafos won 0 of the last 3 |
| 32 | Heart Of Midlothian | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 | Heart Of Midlothian won 0 of the last 3 |
| 33 | KuPS | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 | KuPS won 0 of the last 3 |
| 34 | FC Midtjylland | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 | FC Midtjylland won 0 of the last 3 |
| 35 | Inter Club d'Escaldes | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 0 | Inter Club d'Escaldes won 0 of the last 3 |
| 36 | Kauno Žalgiris | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 0 | Kauno Žalgiris won 0 of the last 3 |