Genoa v Fiorentina

13th2–115th

13:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Genoa		Fiorentina
10	Shots	13
4	Shots on target	3
3	Corners	4
11	Fouls	10
5	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	2
276	Passes	473
37%	Possession %	63%
1.41	xG	0.99

Over 1.5: 75%
Over 2.5: 49%
Over 3.5: 27%
Both score: 54%

Model pick: Fiorentina 39%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.26 – 1.37

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Genoa -0.25

2.68Bet365 · fair 2.45 · qualifies at 2.52+ · 1.39u

Why this price?

Back Genoa -0.25 on the Asian handicap at 2.68 with Bet365 — Genoa must win by more than 0.25 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 39% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 42%; we judge it at 41%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.45. The offered 2.68 implies only 37%, so the price is 9.3% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.39 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Genoa 1.26, Fiorentina 1.37.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Genoa	33.5%	2.98	3.40 Betfair	29.4%	+4.1
Match result	Draw	27.6%	3.62	3.30 BetVictor	30.3%	-2.7
Match result	Fiorentina	38.8%	2.58	2.33 Dafabet	42.9%	-4.1
Total goals	Over 1.5	74.7%	1.34	1.38 Betano	72.5%	+2.2
Total goals	Under 1.5	25.3%	3.95	3.40 Bet365	29.4%	-4.1
Total goals	Over 2.5	49.0%	2.04	2.12 Betano	47.2%	+1.9
Total goals	Under 2.5	51.0%	1.96	1.83 Betano	54.6%	-3.7
Total goals	Over 3.5	27.2%	3.68	3.80 BetVictor	26.3%	+0.9
Total goals	Under 3.5	72.8%	1.37	1.32 Betano	75.8%	-2.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	54.3%	1.84	1.80 Bet365	55.6%	-1.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	45.7%	2.19	2.05 Betfair	48.8%	-3.1

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Genoa v Fiorentina: too close to call

Our model makes Genoa 34% to win this Serie A fixture, with the draw at 28% and Fiorentina at 39%. The goal projection is 1.26 for Genoa against 1.37 for Fiorentina — a slight edge to Fiorentina on expected output. A combined 2.63 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 49% and both teams to score at 54%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 0-1 9%; 1-2 9%; 1-0 8%; 0-0 8%

This season

Season records for Genoa and Fiorentina
Genoa		Fiorentina
11	Played	11
4-1-6	W-D-L	2-3-6
1.18	Pts / game	0.82
1.00	Goals for / game	1.55
1.45	Goals against / game	2.27
45%	Over 2.5	91%
55%	BTTS	82%
18%	Clean sheets	0%
27%	Failed to score	18%
3-1-3	Home record	0-3-3
1-0-3	Away record	2-0-3
L1	Streak	D1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Genoa · Fiorentina

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
11.7	Shots	17.0
3.4	Shots on target	4.6
3.6	Corners	5.1
2.14	Cards	2.57
10.3	Fouls	12.6
42	Possession %	47
0.94	xG	1.53
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
13.3	Shots	15.3
4.0	Shots on target	5.9
5.1	Corners	5.4
2.14	Cards	2.14
12.6	Fouls	12.6
58	Possession %	53
1.13	xG	1.71
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Genoa	Metric	Fiorentina
0.80	Goals scored	1.80 (better)
1.80	Goals conceded	1.60 (better)
1.12	Expected goals (xG)	2.06 (better)
	Big chances
4.50	Shots on target	6.20 (better)
16.75	Total shots	17.60 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
7.00 (better)	Corners	4.40
48.0 (better)	Possession %	46.2
396	Passes	422 (better)
	Tackles
11.00 (better)	Fouls	12.20
3.25	Offsides	1.00 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.00 (better)	Yellow cards	2.25
0.50	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Genoa wins: 1
Draws: 2
Fiorentina wins: 0
Goals / game: 2.33
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 67%

Genoa v Fiorentina2–12026-10-10
Fiorentina v Genoa0–02026-05-10
Genoa v Fiorentina2–22025-11-09

Serie A table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Lazio	11	9	2	0	+16	29	Lazio won 4 of the last 5
2	Inter	11	9	1	1	+15	28	Inter won 4 of the last 5
3	AS Roma	11	8	3	0	+21	27	AS Roma won 4 of the last 5
4	AC Milan	11	7	3	1	+10	24	AC Milan won 4 of the last 5
5	Como	11	7	2	2	+8	23	Como won 4 of the last 5
6	Frosinone	11	6	2	3	+9	20	Frosinone won 3 of the last 5
7	Juventus	11	5	3	3	+3	18	Juventus won 2 of the last 5
8	Bologna	11	5	2	4	+2	17	Bologna won 4 of the last 5
9	Cagliari	11	5	1	5	-5	16	Cagliari won 1 of the last 5
10	Napoli	11	4	3	4	+4	15	Napoli won 1 of the last 5
11	Torino	11	4	2	5	-2	14	Torino won 2 of the last 5
12	Atalanta	11	4	2	5	-3	14	Atalanta won 1 of the last 5
13	Genoa	11	4	1	6	-5	13	Genoa won 3 of the last 5
14	Lecce	11	3	1	7	-10	10	Lecce won 1 of the last 5
15	Fiorentina	11	2	3	6	-8	9	Fiorentina won 1 of the last 5
16	Parma	11	2	2	7	-8	8	Parma won 1 of the last 5
17	Sassuolo	11	2	2	7	-13	8	Sassuolo won 0 of the last 5
18	Monza	11	2	1	8	-8	7	Monza won 1 of the last 5
19	Venezia	11	2	0	9	-13	6	Venezia won 2 of the last 5
20	Udinese	11	1	2	8	-13	5	Udinese won 0 of the last 5