Gangwon FC won 2 of the last 5WLDDW4th1–1Incheon United won 3 of the last 5LWWDW6th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Gangwon FC
Incheon United
16
Shots
7
8
Shots on target
3
7
Corners
1
—
Fouls
—
1
Yellow cards
2
0
Red cards
0
—
Offsides
—
—
Passes
—
64%
Possession %
36%
—
xG
—
34%
33%
33%
1 · Gangwon FCXIncheon United · 2
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
13%
Both score
39%
Model pick
Gangwon FC 34%
Likely score
0-0 15%
Expected goals
0.97 – 0.96
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Gangwon FC
33.8%
2.96
2.30 Dafabet
43.5%
-9.7
Match result
Draw
32.8%
3.05
3.30 Betfair
30.3%
+2.5
Match result
Incheon United
33.4%
2.99
3.45 Betano
29.0%
+4.4
Total goals
Over 1.5
58.3%
1.72
1.47 Betano
68.0%
-9.8
Total goals
Under 1.5
41.7%
2.40
2.75 Bet365
36.4%
+5.4
Total goals
Over 2.5
30.6%
3.27
2.45 Betano
40.8%
-10.3
Total goals
Under 2.5
69.5%
1.44
1.60 Bet365
62.5%
+7.0
Total goals
Over 3.5
13.1%
7.62
4.50 Bet365
22.2%
-9.1
Total goals
Under 3.5
86.9%
1.15
1.20 Bet365
83.3%
+3.5
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
39.1%
2.56
2.00 Bet365
50.0%
-10.9
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
60.9%
1.64
1.80 William Hill
55.6%
+5.4
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Gangwon FC v Incheon United: too close to call
Our model makes Gangwon FC 34% to win this K League 1 fixture, with the draw at 33% and Incheon United at 33%. The goal projection is 0.97 for Gangwon FC against 0.96 for Incheon United — almost nothing to Gangwon FC on expected output. A combined 1.93 goals points to a low-scoring, tight affair, which puts over 2.5 at 31% and both teams to score at 39%. The single most likely scoreline is 0-0 at 15%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Gangwon FC
Metric
Incheon United
0.80
Goals scored
1.40 (better)
0.60 (better)
Goals conceded
0.80
—
Expected goals (xG)
—
—
Big chances *
—
4.50 (better)
Shots on target
4.00
12.50 (better)
Total shots
10.60
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
5.25 (better)
Corners
4.40
57.5 (better)
Possession %
52.0
433
Passes
491 (better)
—
Tackles
—
10.75
Fouls
8.20 (better)
1.75
Offsides
1.20 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.00
Yellow cards
0.20 (better)
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Gangwon FC v 
Incheon United