Gamba Osaka v 
Kyoto Sanga
Match statistics
| Gamba Osaka | Kyoto Sanga | |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Shots | 14 |
| 7 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
| 3 | Offsides | 3 |
| 379 | Passes | 429 |
| 47% | Possession % | 53% |
| 1.28 | xG | 1.35 |
- Over 1.5
- 76%
- Over 2.5
- 51%
- Over 3.5
- 29%
- Both score
- 54%
- Model pick
- Gamba Osaka 47%
- Likely score
- 1-1 12%
- Expected goals
- 1.58 – 1.14
Advised bets
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Gamba Osaka -0.5
Why this price?
Back Gamba Osaka -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 1.92 with Bet365 — Gamba Osaka must win by more than 0.5 goals.
Our model puts the chance at 47% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 65%; we judge it at 58%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.73. The offered 1.92 implies only 52%, so the price is 10.8% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Gamba Osaka 1.58, Kyoto Sanga 1.14.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 24.0% | 4.16 | 4.60 BetVictor | 21.7% | +2.3 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 51.0% | 1.96 | 1.70 Bet365 | 58.8% | -7.8 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 49.0% | 2.04 | 2.25 Bet365 | 44.4% | +4.6 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 28.9% | 3.46 | 2.63 Betfair | 38.0% | -9.1 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 71.1% | 1.41 | 1.52 Betano | 65.8% | +5.3 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 54.5% | 1.83 | 1.67 Bet365 | 59.9% | -5.4 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 45.5% | 2.20 | 2.32 Betano | 43.1% | +2.4 |
| Match result | Gamba Osaka | 46.9% | 2.13 | 1.97 Dafabet | 50.8% | -3.9 |
| Match result | Draw | 26.2% | 3.81 | 3.80 Betfair | 26.3% | -0.1 |
| Match result | Kyoto Sanga | 26.9% | 3.72 | 3.70 BetVictor | 27.0% | -0.1 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 76.0% | 1.32 | 1.22 Betano | 82.0% | -6.0 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Gamba Osaka favoured against Kyoto Sanga
Our model makes Gamba Osaka 47% to win this J1 League fixture, with the draw at 26% and Kyoto Sanga at 27%. The goal projection is 1.58 for Gamba Osaka against 1.14 for Kyoto Sanga — a clear edge to Gamba Osaka on expected output. A combined 2.71 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 51% and both teams to score at 54%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 12%
- 1-0 10%
- 2-1 9%
- 2-0 8%
- 0-0 7%
This season
| Gamba Osaka | Kyoto Sanga | |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Played | 14 |
| 2-6-6 | W-D-L | 4-4-6 |
| 0.86 | Pts / game | 1.14 |
| 1.14 | Goals for / game | 1.36 |
| 1.71 | Goals against / game | 1.64 |
| 50% | Over 2.5 | 64% |
| 57% | BTTS | 64% |
| 14% | Clean sheets | 14% |
| 43% | Failed to score | 21% |
| 1-2-3 | Home record | 2-1-3 |
| 1-4-3 | Away record | 2-3-3 |
| L1 | Streak | W2 |
2027/28 league matches only, computed from results on record. Gamba Osaka · Kyoto Sanga
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 14.2 | Shots | 10.3 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.7 | Shots on target | 4.2 |
| 4.3 | Corners | 3.2 |
| 1.50 | Cards | 1.67 |
| 13.8 | Fouls | 15.3 |
| 51 | Possession % | 39 |
| 1.18 | xG | 0.96 |
| 6 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Conceded
| 14.3 | Shots | 14.5 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.5 | Shots on target | 5.5 |
| 4.3 | Corners | 6.0 |
| 2.00 | Cards | 1.50 |
| 10.8 | Fouls | 9.7 |
| 49 | Possession % | 61 |
| 1.08 | xG | 1.19 |
| 6 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Form comparison
| Gamba Osaka | Metric | Kyoto Sanga |
|---|---|---|
| 2.40 (better) | Goals scored | 0.80 |
| 1.80 | Goals conceded | 0.40 (better) |
| 1.91 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.35 |
| Big chances | ||
| 5.67 (better) | Shots on target | 4.00 |
| 17.33 (better) | Total shots | 14.33 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 4.67 | Corners | 4.67 |
| 55.0 (better) | Possession % | 49.3 |
| 449 (better) | Passes | 431 |
| Tackles | ||
| 12.67 (better) | Fouls | 13.67 |
| 2.33 (better) | Offsides | 4.33 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.00 | Yellow cards | 1.00 (better) |
| 0.00 | Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Gamba Osaka wins
- 1
- Draws
- 2
- Kyoto Sanga wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 2.67
- Over 2.5
- 33%
- Both score
- 67%
- Gamba Osaka v Kyoto Sanga2–22026-10-24
- Kyoto Sanga v Gamba Osaka1–12026-04-29
- Gamba Osaka v Kyoto Sanga2–02026-04-04
J1 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Tokyo | 14 | 10 | 3 | 1 | +25 | 33 | FC Tokyo won 4 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Kashiwa Reysol | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | +11 | 31 | Kashiwa Reysol won 3 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | +22 | 30 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima won 3 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Machida Zelvia | 14 | 8 | 5 | 1 | +20 | 29 | Machida Zelvia won 2 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Vissel Kobe | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | +9 | 27 | Vissel Kobe won 2 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Kashima | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | +5 | 23 | Kashima won 2 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | +6 | 22 | Yokohama F. Marinos won 1 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Kawasaki Frontale | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | +4 | 22 | Kawasaki Frontale won 3 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Urawa | 14 | 7 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 22 | Urawa won 3 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Fagiano Okayama | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | -6 | 17 | Fagiano Okayama won 1 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Cerezo Osaka | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | -9 | 17 | Cerezo Osaka won 1 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Kyoto Sanga | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | -4 | 16 | Kyoto Sanga won 2 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Nagoya Grampus | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -8 | 14 | Nagoya Grampus won 1 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Tokyo Verdy | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -10 | 14 | Tokyo Verdy won 3 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Shimizu S-pulse | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -13 | 14 | Shimizu S-pulse won 0 of the last 5 |
| 16 | V-varen Nagasaki | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -5 | 13 | V-varen Nagasaki won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | JEF United Chiba | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -8 | 13 | JEF United Chiba won 2 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Gamba Osaka | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | -8 | 12 | Gamba Osaka won 1 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Mito Hollyhock | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | -14 | 9 | Mito Hollyhock won 0 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Avispa Fukuoka | 14 | 2 | 2 | 10 | -11 | 8 | Avispa Fukuoka won 0 of the last 5 |