Gamba Osaka v 
Buriram United
Match statistics
| Gamba Osaka | Buriram United | |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 11 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 5 | Offsides | 1 |
| 689 | Passes | 324 |
| 68% | Possession % | 32% |
| 3.84 | xG | 0.68 |
- Over 1.5
- 73%
- Over 2.5
- 47%
- Over 3.5
- 26%
- Both score
- 53%
- Model pick
- Gamba Osaka 37%
- Likely score
- 1-1 13%
- Expected goals
- 1.31 – 1.25
Advised bets
WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 4 of 5Under 2.5
Why this price?
Back under 2.5 goals at 2.45 with Betfair — 2 goals or fewer in the match.
Our model puts the chance at 53% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 39%; we judge it at 45%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.24. The offered 2.45 implies only 41%, so the price is 9.3% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.61 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Gamba Osaka 1.31, Buriram United 1.25.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Gamba Osaka | 37.3% | 2.68 | 1.73 William Hill | 57.8% | -20.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 27.9% | 3.59 | 4.10 Dafabet | 24.4% | +3.5 |
| Match result | Buriram United | 34.8% | 2.87 | 4.90 Dafabet | 20.4% | +14.4 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 73.2% | 1.37 | 1.22 Bet365 | 82.0% | -8.8 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 26.8% | 3.73 | 4.40 BetVictor | 22.7% | +4.1 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 47.2% | 2.12 | 1.70 Bet365 | 58.8% | -11.6 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 52.8% | 1.89 | 2.45 Betfair | 40.8% | +12.0 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 25.6% | 3.91 | 2.88 Betfair | 34.7% | -9.1 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 74.4% | 1.34 | 1.45 Betano | 69.0% | +5.5 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 52.8% | 1.90 | 1.73 Bet365 | 57.8% | -5.0 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 47.2% | 2.12 | 2.25 Betfair | 44.4% | +2.8 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Gamba Osaka v Buriram United: too close to call
Our model makes Gamba Osaka 37% to win this AFC Champions League Elite fixture, with the draw at 28% and Buriram United at 35%. The goal projection is 1.31 for Gamba Osaka against 1.25 for Buriram United — almost nothing to Gamba Osaka on expected output. A combined 2.56 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 47% and both teams to score at 53%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 13%
- 1-0 9%
- 0-1 9%
- 0-0 8%
- 2-1 8%
This season
| Gamba Osaka | Buriram United | |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Played | 4 |
| 2-6-6 | W-D-L | 0-3-1 |
| 0.86 | Pts / game | 0.75 |
| 1.14 | Goals for / game | 0.50 |
| 1.71 | Goals against / game | 0.75 |
| 50% | Over 2.5 | 0% |
| 57% | BTTS | 50% |
| 14% | Clean sheets | 25% |
| 43% | Failed to score | 50% |
| 1-2-3 | Home record | 0-1-1 |
| 1-4-3 | Away record | 0-2-0 |
| L1 | Streak | D2 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Gamba Osaka · Buriram United
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 16.4 | Shots | 10.7 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.9 | Shots on target | 2.3 |
| 5.2 | Corners | 2.0 |
| 1.44 | Cards | 0.67 |
| 13.3 | Fouls | 6.7 |
| 55 | Possession % | 47 |
| 1.71 | xG | 0.71 |
| 9 matches | sample | 3 matches |
Conceded
| 13.0 | Shots | 16.7 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.2 | Shots on target | 4.0 |
| 3.8 | Corners | 9.7 |
| 1.67 | Cards | 1.67 |
| 10.0 | Fouls | 11.3 |
| 45 | Possession % | 53 |
| 1.07 | xG | 2.07 |
| 9 matches | sample | 3 matches |
Form comparison
| Gamba Osaka | Metric | Buriram United |
|---|---|---|
| 2.80 (better) | Goals scored | 1.00 |
| 2.00 | Goals conceded | 0.60 (better) |
| 1.73 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.93 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 5.33 | Shots on target | 6.25 (better) |
| 16.00 | Total shots | 19.50 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 4.67 | Corners | 8.25 (better) |
| 57.7 | Possession % | 64.8 (better) |
| 482 (better) | Passes | 433 |
| Tackles | ||
| 13.33 | Fouls | 9.00 (better) |
| 1.33 (better) | Offsides | 1.67 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.67 (better) | Yellow cards | 2.00 |
| 0.00 | Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Gamba Osaka wins
- 0
- Draws
- 1
- Buriram United wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 2.00
- Over 2.5
- 0%
- Both score
- 100%
- Gamba Osaka v Buriram United1–12026-10-28
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Ain | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +11 | 12 | Al Ain won 4 of the last 4 |
| 2 | Vissel Kobe | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 12 | Vissel Kobe won 4 of the last 4 |
| 3 | Kashima | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +10 | 10 | Kashima won 3 of the last 4 |
| 4 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 9 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 3 of the last 4 |
| 5 | Esteghlal FC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 9 | Esteghlal FC won 3 of the last 4 |
| 6 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 9 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won 3 of the last 4 |
| 7 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +6 | 8 | Al-Qadisiyah FC won 2 of the last 4 |
| 8 | Gamba Osaka | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +5 | 8 | Gamba Osaka won 2 of the last 4 |
| 9 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +3 | 8 | Al-Ahli Jeddah won 2 of the last 4 |
| 10 | Kashiwa Reysol | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 7 | Kashiwa Reysol won 2 of the last 4 |
| 11 | SHANGHAI SIPG | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 7 | SHANGHAI SIPG won 2 of the last 4 |
| 12 | Johor Darul Takzim FC | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 7 | Johor Darul Takzim FC won 2 of the last 4 |
| 13 | Kyoto Sanga | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 7 | Kyoto Sanga won 2 of the last 4 |
| 14 | Jeonbuk Motors | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 | Jeonbuk Motors won 2 of the last 4 |
| 15 | Beijing Guoan | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | Beijing Guoan won 2 of the last 4 |
| 16 | Al-Nassr | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 6 | Al-Nassr won 2 of the last 3 |
| 17 | Al Shamal | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 5 | Al Shamal won 1 of the last 4 |
| 18 | Neftchi | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 | Neftchi won 1 of the last 4 |
| 19 | Daejeon Citizen | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 | Daejeon Citizen won 1 of the last 4 |
| 20 | Al-Ittihad FC | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 | Al-Ittihad FC won 1 of the last 4 |
| 21 | Công An Nhân Dân | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 | Công An Nhân Dân won 1 of the last 4 |
| 22 | Buriram United | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 3 | Buriram United won 0 of the last 4 |
| 23 | Al-Wasl FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 | Al-Wasl FC won 1 of the last 3 |
| 24 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 3 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya won 1 of the last 4 |
| 25 | Port FC | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 | Port FC won 1 of the last 4 |
| 26 | Tractor Sazi | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 2 | Tractor Sazi won 0 of the last 4 |
| 27 | Pakhtakor | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 2 | Pakhtakor won 0 of the last 4 |
| 28 | Al Sadd | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 2 | Al Sadd won 0 of the last 4 |
| 29 | Ratchaburi | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 1 | Ratchaburi won 0 of the last 4 |
| 30 | Pohang Steelers | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 1 | Pohang Steelers won 0 of the last 4 |
| 31 | Al-Gharafa | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 0 | Al-Gharafa won 0 of the last 4 |
| 32 | Newcastle Jets | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -13 | 0 | Newcastle Jets won 0 of the last 4 |