Gais v IFK Goteborg

9th1–110th

13:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Gais		IFK Goteborg
11	Shots	18
4	Shots on target	5
8	Corners	6
16	Fouls	13
6	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	0
322	Passes	533
38%	Possession %	62%
1.68	xG	1.61

Over 1.5: 71%
Over 2.5: 45%
Over 3.5: 24%
Both score: 50%

Model pick: Gais 45%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.43 – 1.04

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Gais	45.3%	2.21	2.45 Bet365	40.8%	+4.5
Match result	Draw	27.8%	3.59	3.50 Bet365	28.6%	-0.7
Match result	IFK Goteborg	26.8%	3.73	3.25 William Hill	30.8%	-3.9
Total goals	Over 1.5	71.2%	1.40	1.26 Betano	79.4%	-8.1
Total goals	Under 1.5	28.8%	3.48	4.00 Bet365	25.0%	+3.8
Total goals	Over 2.5	44.8%	2.23	1.85 Bet365	54.1%	-9.3
Total goals	Under 2.5	55.2%	1.81	2.05 Bet365	48.8%	+6.4
Total goals	Over 3.5	23.6%	4.24	3.10 Betfair	32.3%	-8.7
Total goals	Under 3.5	76.4%	1.31	1.40 Bet365	71.4%	+5.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	49.8%	2.01	1.67 Bet365	59.9%	-10.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	50.2%	1.99	2.25 BetVictor	44.4%	+5.8

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Gais favoured against IFK Goteborg

Our model makes Gais 45% to win this Allsvenskan fixture, with the draw at 28% and IFK Goteborg at 27%. The goal projection is 1.43 for Gais against 1.04 for IFK Goteborg — a clear edge to Gais on expected output. A combined 2.47 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 45% and both teams to score at 50%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 1-0 11%; 0-0 9%; 2-1 9%; 2-0 9%

This season

Season records for Gais and IFK Goteborg
Gais		IFK Goteborg
28	Played	28
11-7-10	W-D-L	10-9-9
1.43	Pts / game	1.39
1.29	Goals for / game	1.29
1.00	Goals against / game	1.64
39%	Over 2.5	46%
39%	BTTS	57%
39%	Clean sheets	18%
29%	Failed to score	29%
6-5-3	Home record	6-5-3
5-2-7	Away record	4-4-6
W3	Streak	D1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Gais · IFK Goteborg

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
13.7	Shots	13.0
3.6	Shots on target	3.5
5.0	Corners	4.7
2.29	Cards	1.50
14.4	Fouls	14.8
50	Possession %	48
1.15	xG	1.18
7 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
13.9	Shots	12.7
4.9	Shots on target	3.7
5.9	Corners	5.2
1.57	Cards	2.50
13.9	Fouls	12.2
50	Possession %	53
1.48	xG	1.35
7 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Gais	Metric	IFK Goteborg
1.40	Goals scored	1.60 (better)
0.60 (better)	Goals conceded	1.20
1.89 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.50
	Big chances
4.40	Shots on target	4.50 (better)
14.00 (better)	Total shots	12.50
	Touches in opp. box
4.00	Corners	5.50 (better)
51.8 (better)	Possession %	48.0
506 (better)	Passes	435
	Tackles
14.40 (better)	Fouls	15.25
2.33	Offsides	1.67 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.00	Yellow cards	1.50 (better)
0.67	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Gais wins: 0
Draws: 2
IFK Goteborg wins: 1
Goals / game: 2.33
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 67%

Gais v IFK Goteborg1–12026-10-25
IFK Goteborg v Gais2–22026-04-26
Gais v IFK Goteborg0–12025-08-11

Allsvenskan table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Hammarby FF	28	18	4	6	+37	58	Hammarby FF won 5 of the last 5
2	Sirius	28	18	4	6	+23	58	Sirius won 1 of the last 5
3	Djurgardens IF	28	16	4	8	+29	52	Djurgardens IF won 2 of the last 5
4	BK Hacken	28	13	10	5	+17	49	BK Hacken won 3 of the last 5
5	IF Elfsborg	28	12	10	6	+11	46	IF Elfsborg won 1 of the last 5
6	Vasteras SK FK	28	13	6	9	+2	45	Vasteras SK FK won 3 of the last 5
7	Malmo FF	28	12	5	11	+6	41	Malmo FF won 1 of the last 5
8	AIK Stockholm	28	11	8	9	-3	41	AIK Stockholm won 2 of the last 5
9	Gais	28	11	7	10	+8	40	Gais won 3 of the last 5
10	IFK Goteborg	28	10	9	9	-10	39	IFK Goteborg won 0 of the last 5
11	IF Brommapojkarna	28	9	8	11	-5	35	IF Brommapojkarna won 1 of the last 5
12	Mjallby AIF	28	6	10	12	-13	28	Mjallby AIF won 1 of the last 5
13	Kalmar FF	28	7	5	16	-18	26	Kalmar FF won 2 of the last 5
14	Degerfors IF	28	5	5	18	-25	20	Degerfors IF won 0 of the last 5
15	Orgryte IS	28	4	8	16	-27	20	Orgryte IS won 1 of the last 5
16	Halmstad	28	5	5	18	-32	20	Halmstad won 2 of the last 5