Gais v AIK Stockholm

9th2–18th

18:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Gais		AIK Stockholm
9	Shots	13
3	Shots on target	4
3	Corners	9
19	Fouls	9
2	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	0
371	Passes	628
37%	Possession %	63%
0.53	xG	0.75

Over 1.5: 80%
Over 2.5: 56%
Over 3.5: 34%
Both score: 59%

Model pick: Gais 42%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.58 – 1.36

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

AIK Stockholm

3.95Dafabet · fair 3.68 · qualifies at 3.79+ · 0.62u

Why this price?

Back AIK Stockholm to win at 3.95 with Dafabet.

Our model puts the chance at 32% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 24%; we judge it at 27%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 3.68. The offered 3.95 implies only 25%, so the price is 7.3% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 0.62 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Gais 1.58, AIK Stockholm 1.36.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Gais	42.1%	2.38	1.87 Dafabet	53.5%	-11.4
Match result	Draw	25.6%	3.91	3.90 Dafabet	25.6%	-0.0
Match result	AIK Stockholm	32.3%	3.10	4.20 Bet365	23.8%	+8.5
Total goals	Over 1.5	79.6%	1.26	1.21 Betano	82.6%	-3.0
Total goals	Under 1.5	20.4%	4.90	4.80 Betfair	20.8%	-0.4
Total goals	Over 2.5	56.1%	1.78	1.62 Bet365	61.7%	-5.6
Total goals	Under 2.5	43.9%	2.28	2.38 Betfair	42.0%	+1.9
Total goals	Over 3.5	33.7%	2.96	2.63 BetVictor	38.0%	-4.3
Total goals	Under 3.5	66.3%	1.51	1.53 Bet365	65.4%	+0.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	59.4%	1.68	1.65 Betfair	60.6%	-1.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	40.6%	2.46	2.45 Betfair	40.8%	-0.3

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Gais favoured against AIK Stockholm

Our model makes Gais 42% to win this Allsvenskan fixture, with the draw at 26% and AIK Stockholm at 32%. The goal projection is 1.58 for Gais against 1.36 for AIK Stockholm — a slight edge to Gais on expected output. A combined 2.93 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 56% and both teams to score at 59%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 2-1 9%; 1-0 8%; 1-2 8%; 0-1 7%

This season

Season records for Gais and AIK Stockholm
Gais		AIK Stockholm
28	Played	28
11-7-10	W-D-L	11-8-9
1.43	Pts / game	1.46
1.29	Goals for / game	1.64
1.00	Goals against / game	1.75
39%	Over 2.5	71%
39%	BTTS	75%
39%	Clean sheets	14%
29%	Failed to score	18%
6-5-3	Home record	5-3-6
5-2-7	Away record	6-5-3
W3	Streak	W1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Gais · AIK Stockholm

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
13.7	Shots	15.0
3.6	Shots on target	5.3
5.0	Corners	4.9
2.29	Cards	1.86
14.4	Fouls	11.9
50	Possession %	56
1.15	xG	1.86
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
13.9	Shots	15.9
4.9	Shots on target	6.6
5.9	Corners	5.3
1.57	Cards	1.14
13.9	Fouls	12.6
50	Possession %	44
1.48	xG	1.87
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Gais	Metric	AIK Stockholm
1.20	Goals scored	2.20 (better)
1.60 (better)	Goals conceded	2.40
1.54	Expected goals (xG)	2.33 (better)
	Big chances
3.40	Shots on target	5.80 (better)
14.40	Total shots	17.40 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.80	Corners	5.40 (better)
52.2	Possession %	61.0 (better)
489	Passes	592 (better)
	Tackles
13.60	Fouls	11.40 (better)
2.25	Offsides	1.40 (better)
	Throw-ins
3.00	Yellow cards	1.00 (better)
0.50	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Gais wins: 1
Draws: 1
AIK Stockholm wins: 1
Goals / game: 2.33
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 67%

Gais v AIK Stockholm2–12026-11-02
AIK Stockholm v Gais2–02026-07-18
AIK Stockholm v Gais1–12025-09-28

Allsvenskan table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Hammarby FF	28	18	4	6	+37	58	Hammarby FF won 5 of the last 5
2	Sirius	28	18	4	6	+23	58	Sirius won 1 of the last 5
3	Djurgardens IF	28	16	4	8	+29	52	Djurgardens IF won 2 of the last 5
4	BK Hacken	28	13	10	5	+17	49	BK Hacken won 3 of the last 5
5	IF Elfsborg	28	12	10	6	+11	46	IF Elfsborg won 1 of the last 5
6	Vasteras SK FK	28	13	6	9	+2	45	Vasteras SK FK won 3 of the last 5
7	Malmo FF	28	12	5	11	+6	41	Malmo FF won 1 of the last 5
8	AIK Stockholm	28	11	8	9	-3	41	AIK Stockholm won 2 of the last 5
9	Gais	28	11	7	10	+8	40	Gais won 3 of the last 5
10	IFK Goteborg	28	10	9	9	-10	39	IFK Goteborg won 0 of the last 5
11	IF Brommapojkarna	28	9	8	11	-5	35	IF Brommapojkarna won 1 of the last 5
12	Mjallby AIF	28	6	10	12	-13	28	Mjallby AIF won 1 of the last 5
13	Kalmar FF	28	7	5	16	-18	26	Kalmar FF won 2 of the last 5
14	Degerfors IF	28	5	5	18	-25	20	Degerfors IF won 0 of the last 5
15	Orgryte IS	28	4	8	16	-27	20	Orgryte IS won 1 of the last 5
16	Halmstad	28	5	5	18	-32	20	Halmstad won 2 of the last 5