Gainsborough Trinity v 
Anstey Nomads
- Over 1.5
- 86%
- Over 2.5
- 66%
- Over 3.5
- 44%
- Both score
- 67%
- Model pick
- Gainsborough Trinity 42%
- Likely score
- 1-1 10%
- Expected goals
- 1.78 – 1.62
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Gainsborough Trinity | 41.6% | 2.41 | 2.25 BetVictor | 44.4% | -2.9 |
| Match result | Draw | 23.7% | 4.22 | 3.70 BetVictor | 27.0% | -3.3 |
| Match result | Anstey Nomads | 34.7% | 2.88 | 3.10 Bet365 | 32.3% | +2.5 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 85.9% | 1.16 | 1.19 Betano | 84.0% | +1.9 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 14.1% | 7.09 | 5.25 BetVictor | 19.0% | -5.0 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 66.0% | 1.51 | 1.65 Bet365 | 60.6% | +5.4 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 34.0% | 2.94 | 2.50 Bet365 | 40.0% | -6.0 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 44.2% | 2.26 | 2.45 BetVictor | 40.8% | +3.4 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 55.8% | 1.79 | 1.53 Betano | 65.4% | -9.5 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 67.3% | 1.49 | 1.53 William Hill | 65.4% | +1.9 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 32.7% | 3.06 | 2.45 BetVictor | 40.8% | -8.1 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Gainsborough Trinity favoured against Anstey Nomads
Our model makes Gainsborough Trinity 42% to win this FA Cup fixture, with the draw at 24% and Anstey Nomads at 35%. The goal projection is 1.78 for Gainsborough Trinity against 1.62 for Anstey Nomads — a slight edge to Gainsborough Trinity on expected output. A combined 3.40 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 66% and both teams to score at 67%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 10%
- 2-1 9%
- 1-2 8%
- 2-2 7%
- 1-0 5%
This season
| Gainsborough Trinity | Anstey Nomads | |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Played | 5 |
| 2-1-1 | W-D-L | 3-1-1 |
| 1.75 | Pts / game | 2.00 |
| 2.50 | Goals for / game | 2.00 |
| 1.50 | Goals against / game | 1.40 |
| 75% | Over 2.5 | 80% |
| 75% | BTTS | 60% |
| 25% | Clean sheets | 20% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 20% |
| 1-0-1 | Home record | 1-0-1 |
| 1-1-0 | Away record | 2-1-0 |
| L1 | Streak | L1 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Gainsborough Trinity · Anstey Nomads
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| — | Shots | 6.0 |
|---|---|---|
| — | Shots on target | 4.0 |
| — | Corners | 4.0 |
| — | Cards | 1.00 |
| — | Fouls | — |
| — | Possession % | 49 |
| — | xG | — |
| — | sample | 1 matches |
Conceded
| — | Shots | 7.0 |
|---|---|---|
| — | Shots on target | 4.0 |
| — | Corners | 4.0 |
| — | Cards | 3.00 |
| — | Fouls | — |
| — | Possession % | 51 |
| — | xG | — |
| — | sample | 1 matches |
Form comparison
| Gainsborough Trinity | Metric | Anstey Nomads |
|---|---|---|
| 2.20 | Goals scored | 2.80 (better) |
| 1.80 | Goals conceded | 1.20 (better) |
| Expected goals (xG) | ||
| Big chances | ||
| Shots on target | ||
| Total shots | ||
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| Corners | ||
| Possession % | ||
| Passes | ||
| Tackles | ||
| Fouls | ||
| Offsides | ||
| Throw-ins | ||
| Yellow cards | ||
| Red cards |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Gainsborough Trinity wins
- 0
- Draws
- 0
- Anstey Nomads wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 5.00
- Over 2.5
- 100%
- Both score
- 100%
- Gainsborough Trinity v Anstey Nomads2–32026-10-03