Fulham v 
Crystal Palace
Match statistics
| Fulham | Crystal Palace | |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Shots | 4 |
| 4 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 0 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 0 | Offsides | 2 |
| 789 | Passes | 280 |
| 74% | Possession % | 26% |
| 1.58 | xG | 0.58 |
- Over 1.5
- 78%
- Over 2.5
- 53%
- Over 3.5
- 31%
- Both score
- 57%
- Model pick
- Fulham 37%
- Likely score
- 1-1 13%
- Expected goals
- 1.41 – 1.40
Advised bets
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Fulham -0.5
Why this price?
Back Fulham -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 2.30 with Bet365 — Fulham must win by more than 0.5 goals.
Our model puts the chance at 37% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 55%; we judge it at 48%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.08. The offered 2.30 implies only 43%, so the price is 10.5% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Fulham 1.41, Crystal Palace 1.39.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Fulham | 37.1% | 2.70 | 2.30 Bet365 | 43.5% | -6.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 26.5% | 3.78 | 4.15 Betano | 24.1% | +2.4 |
| Match result | Crystal Palace | 36.5% | 2.74 | 4.65 Betano | 21.5% | +15.0 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 77.5% | 1.29 | 1.25 Bet365 | 80.0% | -2.5 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 22.5% | 4.45 | 5.00 Betfair | 20.0% | +2.5 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 53.1% | 1.88 | 1.67 Bet365 | 59.9% | -6.8 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 46.9% | 2.13 | 2.38 Betfair | 42.0% | +4.9 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 30.9% | 3.24 | 2.65 Betano | 37.7% | -6.9 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 69.1% | 1.45 | 1.55 Betano | 64.5% | +4.6 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 57.4% | 1.74 | 1.62 Bet365 | 61.7% | -4.3 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 42.6% | 2.35 | 2.38 Betfair | 42.0% | +0.6 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Fulham v Crystal Palace: too close to call
Our model makes Fulham 37% to win this EFL Cup fixture, with the draw at 26% and Crystal Palace at 36%. The goal projection is 1.41 for Fulham against 1.40 for Crystal Palace — almost nothing to Fulham on expected output. A combined 2.80 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 53% and both teams to score at 57%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 13%
- 2-1 8%
- 1-2 8%
- 1-0 8%
- 0-1 8%
This season
| Fulham | Crystal Palace | |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Played | 10 |
| 2-4-4 | W-D-L | 2-1-7 |
| 1.00 | Pts / game | 0.70 |
| 1.00 | Goals for / game | 1.00 |
| 1.20 | Goals against / game | 2.40 |
| 30% | Over 2.5 | 60% |
| 60% | BTTS | 50% |
| 30% | Clean sheets | 10% |
| 20% | Failed to score | 50% |
| 1-2-2 | Home record | 1-0-4 |
| 1-2-2 | Away record | 1-1-3 |
| D2 | Streak | L4 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Fulham · Crystal Palace
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 13.4 | Shots | 10.3 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.9 | Shots on target | 3.9 |
| 6.1 | Corners | 3.4 |
| 2.31 | Cards | 2.20 |
| 10.7 | Fouls | 11.1 |
| 60 | Possession % | 41 |
| 1.45 | xG | 1.33 |
| 7 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Conceded
| 12.4 | Shots | 18.9 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.4 | Shots on target | 5.7 |
| 4.4 | Corners | 8.4 |
| 1.29 | Cards | 2.14 |
| 9.3 | Fouls | 11.4 |
| 40 | Possession % | 59 |
| 1.02 | xG | 2.17 |
| 7 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Form comparison
| Fulham | Metric | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| 1.20 (better) | Goals scored | 1.00 |
| 1.00 (better) | Goals conceded | 2.20 |
| 1.38 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.45 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 5.40 (better) | Shots on target | 4.00 |
| 13.00 (better) | Total shots | 10.50 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 6.00 (better) | Corners | 4.00 |
| 55.0 (better) | Possession % | 46.3 |
| 560 (better) | Passes | 421 |
| Tackles | ||
| 9.40 (better) | Fouls | 10.50 |
| 1.00 (better) | Offsides | 1.75 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.20 (better) | Yellow cards | 2.25 |
| 0.33 | Red cards |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Fulham wins
- 0
- Draws
- 1
- Crystal Palace wins
- 3
- Goals / game
- 2.75
- Over 2.5
- 50%
- Both score
- 75%
- Fulham v Crystal Palace0–12026-10-28
- Fulham v Crystal Palace2–32026-09-05
- Crystal Palace v Fulham1–12026-01-01
- Fulham v Crystal Palace1–22025-12-07