Fredrikstad v Rosenborg

12th0–33rd

15:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Fredrikstad		Rosenborg
15	Shots	18
5	Shots on target	4
4	Corners	4
13	Fouls	10
1	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	0
565	Passes	580
48%	Possession %	52%
1.55	xG	2.41

Over 1.5: 80%
Over 2.5: 57%
Over 3.5: 34%
Both score: 59%

Model pick: Rosenborg 46%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.28 – 1.68

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	40.6%	2.46	2.45 Betfair	40.8%	-0.2
Match result	Fredrikstad	28.7%	3.49	4.10 Dafabet	24.4%	+4.3
Match result	Draw	25.1%	3.99	4.10 Bet365	24.4%	+0.7
Match result	Rosenborg	46.3%	2.16	1.88 Betano	53.2%	-6.9
Total goals	Over 1.5	80.1%	1.25	1.19 Betano	84.0%	-3.9
Total goals	Under 1.5	19.9%	5.02	5.00 Bet365	20.0%	-0.1
Total goals	Over 2.5	56.9%	1.76	1.65 Bet365	60.6%	-3.7
Total goals	Under 2.5	43.1%	2.32	2.45 Betfair	40.8%	+2.3
Total goals	Over 3.5	34.5%	2.90	2.62 Bet365	38.2%	-3.7
Total goals	Under 3.5	65.5%	1.53	1.55 Betano	64.5%	+1.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	59.4%	1.69	1.62 William Hill	61.7%	-2.4

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Rosenborg favoured against Fredrikstad

Our model makes Fredrikstad 29% to win this Eliteserien fixture, with the draw at 25% and Rosenborg at 46%. The goal projection is 1.28 for Fredrikstad against 1.68 for Rosenborg — a clear edge to Rosenborg on expected output. A combined 2.96 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 57% and both teams to score at 59%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 1-2 9%; 0-1 8%; 0-2 7%; 2-1 7%

This season

Season records for Fredrikstad and Rosenborg
Fredrikstad		Rosenborg
26	Played	26
8-6-12	W-D-L	14-4-8
1.15	Pts / game	1.77
1.19	Goals for / game	2.04
1.77	Goals against / game	1.23
58%	Over 2.5	65%
65%	BTTS	42%
12%	Clean sheets	38%
23%	Failed to score	23%
5-4-4	Home record	8-3-2
3-2-8	Away record	6-1-6
D1	Streak	W4

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Fredrikstad · Rosenborg

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
15.3	Shots	19.4
4.5	Shots on target	6.4
5.0	Corners	6.4
1.67	Cards	2.65
11.0	Fouls	13.6
51	Possession %	59
1.43	xG	2.17
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
14.5	Shots	11.6
5.5	Shots on target	3.6
5.8	Corners	3.8
2.67	Cards	2.05
10.2	Fouls	14.8
49	Possession %	41
1.89	xG	0.83
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (4 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Fredrikstad	Metric	Rosenborg
1.25	Goals scored	2.60 (better)
1.25	Goals conceded	0.60 (better)
0.90	Expected goals (xG)	2.37 (better)
	Big chances
3.00	Shots on target	8.00 (better)
14.33	Total shots	19.00 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.67	Corners	7.00 (better)
58.3 (better)	Possession %	54.3
644 (better)	Passes	467
	Tackles
11.00 (better)	Fouls	16.33
1.00	Offsides	1.00
	Throw-ins
1.67 (better)	Yellow cards	2.33
0.33 (better)	Red cards	0.50

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Fredrikstad wins: 0
Draws: 0
Rosenborg wins: 2
Goals / game: 3.50
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 0%

Fredrikstad v Rosenborg0–32026-10-31
Rosenborg v Fredrikstad4–02026-07-27

Eliteserien table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Viking	26	20	2	4	+42	62	Viking won 4 of the last 5
2	Bodo/Glimt	26	20	2	4	+40	62	Bodo/Glimt won 4 of the last 5
3	Rosenborg	26	14	4	8	+21	46	Rosenborg won 4 of the last 5
4	Lillestrom	26	14	3	9	+4	45	Lillestrom won 4 of the last 5
5	Molde	26	13	5	8	+20	44	Molde won 2 of the last 5
6	Tromso	26	11	7	8	+3	40	Tromso won 0 of the last 5
7	Brann	26	10	3	13	+3	33	Brann won 1 of the last 5
8	Valerenga	26	9	5	12	-4	32	Valerenga won 3 of the last 5
9	Sarpsborg 08 FF	26	8	7	11	-10	31	Sarpsborg 08 FF won 2 of the last 5
10	KFUM Oslo	26	8	7	11	-13	31	KFUM Oslo won 1 of the last 5
11	Ham-Kam	26	8	6	12	-15	30	Ham-Kam won 2 of the last 5
12	Fredrikstad	26	8	6	12	-15	30	Fredrikstad won 0 of the last 5
13	Sandefjord	26	7	7	12	-8	28	Sandefjord won 1 of the last 5
14	Kristiansund BK	26	7	5	14	-21	26	Kristiansund BK won 2 of the last 5
15	Aalesund	26	5	9	12	-15	24	Aalesund won 1 of the last 5
16	Start	26	5	4	17	-32	19	Start won 1 of the last 5