France v 
Belgium
Match statistics
| France | Belgium | |
|---|---|---|
| 23 | Shots | 5 |
| 8 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 4 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 0 | Offsides | 1 |
| 692 | Passes | 363 |
| 66% | Possession % | 34% |
| — | xG | — |
- Over 1.5
- 77%
- Over 2.5
- 52%
- Over 3.5
- 30%
- Both score
- 55%
- Model pick
- Belgium 47%
- Likely score
- 1-1 12%
- Expected goals
- 1.15 – 1.61
Advised bets
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 4 of 5Under 2.5
Why this price?
Back under 2.5 goals at 2.75 with Betfair — 2 goals or fewer in the match.
Our model puts the chance at 48% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 34%; we judge it at 39%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.54. The offered 2.75 implies only 36%, so the price is 8.3% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.19 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: France 1.15, Belgium 1.61.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Lost
Free pick
Edge strength 1 of 5Draw
Why this price?
Back the draw at 4.60 with Betfair.
Our model puts the chance at 26% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 20%; we judge it at 23%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 4.43. The offered 4.60 implies only 22%, so the price is 3.9% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 0.27 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: France 1.15, Belgium 1.61.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | France | 26.6% | 3.76 | 1.57 Betfair | 63.7% | -37.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 26.1% | 3.83 | 4.80 Betano | 20.8% | +5.3 |
| Match result | Belgium | 47.3% | 2.12 | 5.50 Betfair | 18.2% | +29.1 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 76.9% | 1.30 | 1.19 Betano | 84.0% | -7.1 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 23.1% | 4.33 | 6.00 Bet365 | 16.7% | +6.4 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 52.1% | 1.92 | 1.57 Betano | 63.7% | -11.6 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 47.9% | 2.09 | 2.63 Betfair | 38.0% | +9.9 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 29.9% | 3.34 | 2.40 Betano | 41.7% | -11.7 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 70.1% | 1.43 | 1.70 Betano | 58.8% | +11.2 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 55.4% | 1.80 | 1.67 William Hill | 59.9% | -4.5 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 44.6% | 2.24 | 2.38 Bet365 | 42.0% | +2.6 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Belgium favoured against France
Our model makes France 27% to win this UEFA Nations League fixture, with the draw at 26% and Belgium at 47%. The goal projection is 1.15 for France against 1.61 for Belgium — a clear edge to Belgium on expected output. A combined 2.76 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 52% and both teams to score at 55%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 12%
- 0-1 9%
- 1-2 9%
- 0-2 8%
- 0-0 7%
This season
| France | Belgium | |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Played | 4 |
| 3-1-0 | W-D-L | 2-0-2 |
| 2.50 | Pts / game | 1.50 |
| 1.75 | Goals for / game | 1.50 |
| 0.50 | Goals against / game | 1.25 |
| 25% | Over 2.5 | 50% |
| 50% | BTTS | 25% |
| 50% | Clean sheets | 50% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 25% |
| 1-1-0 | Home record | 1-0-1 |
| 2-0-0 | Away record | 1-0-1 |
| W1 | Streak | L1 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. France · Belgium
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 17.8 | Shots | 13.3 |
|---|---|---|
| 6.8 | Shots on target | 5.5 |
| 6.0 | Corners | 3.5 |
| 1.25 | Cards | 3.25 |
| 9.3 | Fouls | 10.8 |
| 65 | Possession % | 42 |
| — | xG | — |
| 4 matches | sample | 4 matches |
Conceded
| 10.8 | Shots | 21.3 |
|---|---|---|
| 2.3 | Shots on target | 7.3 |
| 3.3 | Corners | 6.0 |
| 3.00 | Cards | 1.50 |
| 11.0 | Fouls | 9.3 |
| 35 | Possession % | 58 |
| — | xG | — |
| 4 matches | sample | 4 matches |
Form comparison
| France | Metric | Belgium |
|---|---|---|
| 1.60 | Goals scored | 3.00 (better) |
| 1.60 | Goals conceded | 1.20 (better) |
| 2.08 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.96 |
| Big chances | ||
| 5.80 | Shots on target | 6.40 (better) |
| 15.60 | Total shots | 18.60 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 6.00 (better) | Corners | 5.20 |
| 56.6 (better) | Possession % | 45.2 |
| 525 (better) | Passes | 483 |
| Tackles | ||
| 12.20 (better) | Fouls | 13.40 |
| 3.00 | Offsides | 1.00 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.00 | Yellow cards | 1.40 (better) |
| 0.00 | Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- France wins
- 2
- Draws
- 0
- Belgium wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 3.00
- Over 2.5
- 50%
- Both score
- 50%
- France v Belgium4–12026-10-05
- Belgium v France0–12026-09-28