Forest Green won 1 of the last 3LWD5–0Chesham United won 2 of the last 4LDWW
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Forest Green
Chesham United
19
Shots
12
9
Shots on target
4
1
Corners
1
—
Fouls
—
0
Yellow cards
1
0
Red cards
0
—
Offsides
—
—
Passes
—
52%
Possession %
48%
—
xG
—
34%
23%
43%
1 · Forest GreenXChesham United · 2
Over 1.5
88%
Over 2.5
69%
Over 3.5
48%
Both score
69%
Model pick
Chesham United 43%
Likely score
1-1 9%
Expected goals
1.67 – 1.90
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Forest Green
33.9%
2.95
1.25 Dafabet
80.0%
-46.1
Match result
Draw
22.8%
4.39
6.40 Dafabet
15.6%
+7.2
Match result
Chesham United
43.3%
2.31
13.00 BetVictor
7.7%
+35.6
Total goals
Over 1.5
87.6%
1.14
1.15 Betano
87.0%
+0.6
Total goals
Under 1.5
12.4%
8.04
5.75 BetVictor
17.4%
-5.0
Total goals
Over 2.5
69.2%
1.45
1.55 BetVictor
64.5%
+4.6
Total goals
Under 2.5
30.8%
3.24
2.63 BetVictor
38.0%
-7.2
Total goals
Over 3.5
47.8%
2.09
2.20 BetVictor
45.5%
+2.3
Total goals
Under 3.5
52.2%
1.92
1.62 BetVictor
61.7%
-9.5
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
69.5%
1.44
2.05 BetVictor
48.8%
+20.7
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
30.5%
3.27
1.73 William Hill
57.8%
-27.3
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Chesham United favoured against Forest Green
Our model makes Forest Green 34% to win this FA Cup fixture, with the draw at 23% and Chesham United at 43%. The goal projection is 1.67 for Forest Green against 1.90 for Chesham United — a slight edge to Chesham United on expected output. A combined 3.57 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 69% and both teams to score at 69%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 9%
1-2 8%
2-1 7%
2-2 7%
1-3 5%
This season
Season records for Forest Green and Chesham United
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (4 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Forest Green
Metric
Chesham United
1.50
Goals scored
2.20 (better)
2.00 (better)
Goals conceded
2.80
—
Expected goals (xG)
—
—
Big chances *
—
6.00 (better)
Shots on target
0.00
9.00 (better)
Total shots
0.00
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
9.00 (better)
Corners
2.00
75.0 (better)
Possession %
25.0
—
Passes
—
—
Tackles
—
—
Fouls
—
—
Offsides
—
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.00 (better)
Yellow cards
5.00
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Forest Green v 
Chesham United