Fleetwood Town v 
Rotherham
Match statistics
| Fleetwood Town | Rotherham | |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | Shots on target | 0 |
| 9 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| — | Red cards | — |
| 5 | Offsides | 2 |
| 363 | Passes | 308 |
| 54% | Possession % | 46% |
| 2.24 | xG | 0.77 |
- Over 1.5
- 68%
- Over 2.5
- 41%
- Over 3.5
- 20%
- Both score
- 44%
- Model pick
- Fleetwood Town 53%
- Likely score
- 1-0 14%
- Expected goals
- 1.50 – 0.81
Advised bets
Won
Free pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Fleetwood Town
Why this price?
Back Fleetwood Town to win at 2.50 with Betfair.
Our model puts the chance at 53% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 39%; we judge it at 44%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.26. The offered 2.50 implies only 40%, so the price is 10.7% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.78 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Fleetwood Town 1.50, Rotherham 0.81.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Draw | 27.4% | 3.65 | 3.50 Betfair | 28.6% | -1.2 |
| Match result | Rotherham | 19.8% | 5.06 | 3.20 Bet365 | 31.3% | -11.5 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 67.8% | 1.47 | 1.30 Betano | 76.9% | -9.1 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 32.2% | 3.11 | 3.75 Bet365 | 26.7% | +5.5 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 40.8% | 2.45 | 1.90 Bet365 | 52.6% | -11.9 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 59.2% | 1.69 | 1.90 Bet365 | 52.6% | +6.6 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 20.4% | 4.91 | 3.25 Bet365 | 30.8% | -10.4 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 79.6% | 1.26 | 1.34 Betano | 74.6% | +5.0 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 43.9% | 2.28 | 1.73 Bet365 | 57.8% | -13.9 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 56.1% | 1.78 | 2.15 Betfair | 46.5% | +9.6 |
| Match result | Fleetwood Town | 52.9% | 1.89 | 2.50 Bet365 | 40.0% | +12.9 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Fleetwood Town favoured against Rotherham
Our model makes Fleetwood Town 53% to win this League Two fixture, with the draw at 27% and Rotherham at 20%. The goal projection is 1.50 for Fleetwood Town against 0.81 for Rotherham — a substantial edge to Fleetwood Town on expected output. A combined 2.31 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 41% and both teams to score at 44%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-0 14%
- 1-1 13%
- 2-0 11%
- 0-0 10%
- 2-1 9%
This season
| Fleetwood Town | Rotherham | |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Played | 14 |
| 4-5-5 | W-D-L | 2-6-6 |
| 1.21 | Pts / game | 0.86 |
| 1.29 | Goals for / game | 1.29 |
| 1.29 | Goals against / game | 1.79 |
| 43% | Over 2.5 | 57% |
| 64% | BTTS | 71% |
| 29% | Clean sheets | 7% |
| 14% | Failed to score | 21% |
| 3-3-1 | Home record | 1-5-1 |
| 1-2-4 | Away record | 1-1-5 |
| W1 | Streak | L1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Fleetwood Town · Rotherham
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 16.1 | Shots | 9.1 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.9 | Shots on target | 3.0 |
| 5.4 | Corners | 2.6 |
| 2.14 | Cards | 2.64 |
| 10.3 | Fouls | 14.4 |
| 51 | Possession % | 49 |
| 1.89 | xG | 1.05 |
| 7 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Conceded
| 9.9 | Shots | 12.9 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Shots on target | 4.4 |
| 5.1 | Corners | 5.4 |
| 1.88 | Cards | 1.74 |
| 12.9 | Fouls | 11.4 |
| 49 | Possession % | 51 |
| 1.02 | xG | 1.86 |
| 7 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Form comparison
| Fleetwood Town | Metric | Rotherham |
|---|---|---|
| 1.20 (better) | Goals scored | 0.60 |
| 1.60 | Goals conceded | 1.40 (better) |
| 2.13 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.63 |
| Big chances | ||
| 4.00 (better) | Shots on target | 2.60 |
| 14.00 (better) | Total shots | 10.00 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 4.40 (better) | Corners | 3.80 |
| 53.0 (better) | Possession % | 52.6 |
| 345 | Passes | 403 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 12.60 (better) | Fouls | 13.00 |
| 1.60 | Offsides | 1.40 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.80 | Yellow cards | 1.40 (better) |
| 0.00 | Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Fleetwood Town wins
- 1
- Draws
- 0
- Rotherham wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 2.00
- Over 2.5
- 0%
- Both score
- 0%
- Fleetwood Town v Rotherham2–02026-10-17
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salford City | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | +10 | 31 | Salford City won 5 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Barnet | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | +10 | 26 | Barnet won 2 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Walsall | 13 | 5 | 7 | 1 | +9 | 22 | Walsall won 2 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Crewe | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 22 | Crewe won 2 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Cheltenham | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 21 | Cheltenham won 2 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Grimsby | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | +6 | 20 | Grimsby won 2 of the last 5 |
| 7 | York | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | +3 | 20 | York won 1 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Gillingham | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 20 | Gillingham won 2 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Accrington ST | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | +6 | 19 | Accrington ST won 2 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Chesterfield | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | +3 | 19 | Chesterfield won 1 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Tranmere | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | +2 | 19 | Tranmere won 2 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Exeter City | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | +2 | 19 | Exeter City won 3 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Swindon Town | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 19 | Swindon Town won 2 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Newport County | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | +3 | 18 | Newport County won 2 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Shrewsbury | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -5 | 18 | Shrewsbury won 2 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Fleetwood Town | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 17 | Fleetwood Town won 2 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Bristol Rovers | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | -6 | 16 | Bristol Rovers won 0 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Oldham | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 15 | Oldham won 2 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Port Vale | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 15 | Port Vale won 3 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Rochdale | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 15 | Rochdale won 0 of the last 5 |
| 21 | Northampton | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -1 | 14 | Northampton won 2 of the last 5 |
| 22 | Rotherham | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | -7 | 12 | Rotherham won 0 of the last 5 |
| 23 | Colchester | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | -7 | 12 | Colchester won 0 of the last 5 |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 9 | Crawley Town won 1 of the last 5 |