Fleetwood Town v Bristol Rovers

16th3–117th

15:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Fleetwood Town		Bristol Rovers
21	Shots	4
8	Shots on target	1
3	Corners	2
11	Fouls	18
2	Yellow cards	0
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	2
370	Passes	390
49%	Possession %	51%
2.29	xG	0.26

Over 1.5: 72%
Over 2.5: 46%
Over 3.5: 24%
Both score: 51%

Model pick: Fleetwood Town 43%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.40 – 1.10

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Bristol Rovers +0.25

2.20Bet365 · fair 1.97 · qualifies at 2.02+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Bristol Rovers +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 2.20 with Bet365 — Bristol Rovers starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.

Our model puts the chance at 50% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 52%; we judge it at 51%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.97. The offered 2.20 implies only 45%, so the price is 11.9% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Fleetwood Town 1.40, Bristol Rovers 1.10.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Fleetwood Town	43.2%	2.31	2.80 Bet365	35.7%	+7.5
Match result	Draw	27.9%	3.58	3.50 Betfair	28.6%	-0.7
Match result	Bristol Rovers	28.9%	3.46	2.62 Bet365	38.2%	-9.3
Total goals	Over 1.5	71.8%	1.39	1.27 Betano	78.7%	-6.9
Total goals	Under 1.5	28.2%	3.55	3.80 Betfair	26.3%	+1.8
Total goals	Over 2.5	45.5%	2.20	1.85 Bet365	54.1%	-8.5
Total goals	Under 2.5	54.5%	1.84	2.00 Betfair	50.0%	+4.5
Total goals	Over 3.5	24.2%	4.14	3.10 Betfair	32.3%	-8.1
Total goals	Under 3.5	75.8%	1.32	1.37 Betano	73.0%	+2.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	50.8%	1.97	1.67 William Hill	59.9%	-9.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	49.2%	2.03	2.20 Betfair	45.5%	+3.7

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Fleetwood Town favoured against Bristol Rovers

Our model makes Fleetwood Town 43% to win this League Two fixture, with the draw at 28% and Bristol Rovers at 29%. The goal projection is 1.40 for Fleetwood Town against 1.10 for Bristol Rovers — a clear edge to Fleetwood Town on expected output. A combined 2.50 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 46% and both teams to score at 51%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 1-0 11%; 0-0 9%; 2-1 9%; 0-1 8%

This season

Season records for Fleetwood Town and Bristol Rovers
Fleetwood Town		Bristol Rovers
14	Played	14
4-5-5	W-D-L	5-1-8
1.21	Pts / game	1.14
1.29	Goals for / game	1.21
1.29	Goals against / game	1.64
43%	Over 2.5	50%
64%	BTTS	43%
29%	Clean sheets	36%
14%	Failed to score	29%
3-3-1	Home record	4-1-2
1-2-4	Away record	1-0-6
W1	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Fleetwood Town · Bristol Rovers

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
16.1	Shots	14.3
4.9	Shots on target	4.3
5.4	Corners	4.7
2.14	Cards	2.29
10.3	Fouls	15.6
51	Possession %	50
1.89	xG	1.34
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
9.9	Shots	12.4
3.0	Shots on target	4.3
5.1	Corners	3.7
1.88	Cards	2.57
12.9	Fouls	12.0
49	Possession %	50
1.02	xG	1.68
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Fleetwood Town	Metric	Bristol Rovers
1.80 (better)	Goals scored	0.80
1.40 (better)	Goals conceded	2.60
2.60 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.63
	Big chances
5.00 (better)	Shots on target	3.80
14.00	Total shots	14.00
	Touches in opp. box
5.80	Corners	5.80
46.8	Possession %	47.4 (better)
349 (better)	Passes	326
	Tackles
10.00 (better)	Fouls	15.20
2.00	Offsides	2.00
	Throw-ins
3.00	Yellow cards	3.00
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.33

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Fleetwood Town wins: 2
Draws: 0
Bristol Rovers wins: 1
Goals / game: 2.67
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 67%

Fleetwood Town v Bristol Rovers3–12026-10-31
Bristol Rovers v Fleetwood Town1–02026-04-03
Fleetwood Town v Bristol Rovers2–12025-08-09

League Two table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Salford City	14	10	1	3	+10	31	Salford City won 5 of the last 5
2	Barnet	13	7	5	1	+10	26	Barnet won 2 of the last 5
3	Walsall	13	5	7	1	+9	22	Walsall won 2 of the last 5
4	Crewe	14	5	7	2	0	22	Crewe won 2 of the last 5
5	Cheltenham	14	6	3	5	-2	21	Cheltenham won 2 of the last 5
6	Grimsby	14	5	5	4	+6	20	Grimsby won 2 of the last 5
7	York	14	5	5	4	+3	20	York won 1 of the last 5
8	Gillingham	14	5	5	4	+1	20	Gillingham won 2 of the last 5
9	Accrington ST	14	4	7	3	+6	19	Accrington ST won 2 of the last 5
10	Chesterfield	14	5	4	5	+3	19	Chesterfield won 1 of the last 5
11	Tranmere	14	4	7	3	+2	19	Tranmere won 2 of the last 5
12	Exeter City	14	5	4	5	+2	19	Exeter City won 3 of the last 5
13	Swindon Town	14	5	4	5	-2	19	Swindon Town won 2 of the last 5
14	Newport County	14	4	6	4	+3	18	Newport County won 2 of the last 5
15	Shrewsbury	14	5	3	6	-5	18	Shrewsbury won 2 of the last 5
16	Fleetwood Town	14	4	5	5	0	17	Fleetwood Town won 2 of the last 5
17	Bristol Rovers	14	5	1	8	-6	16	Bristol Rovers won 0 of the last 5
18	Oldham	14	4	3	7	-4	15	Oldham won 2 of the last 5
19	Port Vale	12	4	3	5	-4	15	Port Vale won 3 of the last 5
20	Rochdale	14	4	3	7	-9	15	Rochdale won 0 of the last 5
21	Northampton	13	3	5	5	-1	14	Northampton won 2 of the last 5
22	Rotherham	14	2	6	6	-7	12	Rotherham won 0 of the last 5
23	Colchester	13	2	6	5	-7	12	Colchester won 0 of the last 5
24	Crawley Town	12	2	3	7	-8	9	Crawley Town won 1 of the last 5