Fleetwood Town v 
Arsenal
Match statistics
| Fleetwood Town | Arsenal | |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Shots | 26 |
| 2 | Shots on target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 5 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
| 3 | Offsides | 3 |
| 180 | Passes | 641 |
| 48% | Possession % | 52% |
| 0.34 | xG | 2.28 |
- Over 1.5
- 77%
- Over 2.5
- 52%
- Over 3.5
- 30%
- Both score
- 49%
- Model pick
- Arsenal 62%
- Likely score
- 0-2 12%
- Expected goals
- 0.85 – 1.93
Advised bets
WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 3 of 5Both teams to score — Yes
Why this price?
Back both teams to score at 2.62 with Bet365 — each side scores at least once.
Our model puts the chance at 49% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 36%; we judge it at 42%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.41. The offered 2.62 implies only 38%, so the price is 8.8% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.36 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Fleetwood Town 0.85, Arsenal 1.93.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Fleetwood Town | 15.4% | 6.51 | 34.00 Betfair | 2.9% | +12.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 22.4% | 4.46 | 13.00 Bet365 | 7.7% | +14.7 |
| Match result | Arsenal | 62.2% | 1.61 | 1.09 Betano | 91.7% | -29.5 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 77.0% | 1.30 | 1.11 Betano | 90.1% | -13.1 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 23.0% | 4.35 | 8.50 Betfair | 11.8% | +11.2 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 52.5% | 1.91 | 1.36 Bet365 | 73.5% | -21.0 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 47.5% | 2.10 | 3.50 Bet365 | 28.6% | +18.9 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 30.3% | 3.30 | 1.87 Betfair | 53.5% | -23.2 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 69.7% | 1.43 | 2.10 Betfair | 47.6% | +22.1 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 49.4% | 2.02 | 2.62 Bet365 | 38.2% | +11.2 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 50.6% | 1.98 | 1.57 William Hill | 63.7% | -13.1 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Arsenal favoured against Fleetwood Town
Our model makes Fleetwood Town 15% to win this EFL Cup fixture, with the draw at 22% and Arsenal at 62%. The goal projection is 0.85 for Fleetwood Town against 1.93 for Arsenal — a commanding edge to Arsenal on expected output. A combined 2.78 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 53% and both teams to score at 49%. The single most likely scoreline is 0-2 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Arsenal is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 38% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 0-2 12%
- 0-1 11%
- 1-1 11%
- 1-2 10%
- 0-3 7%
This season
| Fleetwood Town | Arsenal | |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Played | 10 |
| 4-5-5 | W-D-L | 9-0-1 |
| 1.21 | Pts / game | 2.70 |
| 1.29 | Goals for / game | 1.50 |
| 1.29 | Goals against / game | 0.50 |
| 43% | Over 2.5 | 40% |
| 64% | BTTS | 20% |
| 29% | Clean sheets | 70% |
| 14% | Failed to score | 10% |
| 3-3-1 | Home record | 5-0-0 |
| 1-2-4 | Away record | 4-0-1 |
| W1 | Streak | W5 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Fleetwood Town · Arsenal
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 14.5 | Shots | 15.7 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.5 | Shots on target | 4.7 |
| 5.0 | Corners | 6.1 |
| 2.25 | Cards | 1.29 |
| 10.8 | Fouls | 9.0 |
| 51 | Possession % | 59 |
| 1.63 | xG | 1.68 |
| 8 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Conceded
| 11.9 | Shots | 11.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.5 | Shots on target | 2.7 |
| 5.1 | Corners | 4.7 |
| 1.79 | Cards | 3.43 |
| 11.9 | Fouls | 15.3 |
| 49 | Possession % | 41 |
| 1.23 | xG | 0.67 |
| 8 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Form comparison
| Fleetwood Town | Metric | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| 1.60 | Goals scored | 2.00 (better) |
| 1.00 (better) | Goals conceded | 1.20 |
| 2.71 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.70 |
| Big chances | ||
| 5.20 (better) | Shots on target | 4.60 |
| 15.60 (better) | Total shots | 12.20 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 5.80 (better) | Corners | 4.60 |
| 46.2 | Possession % | 61.6 (better) |
| 345 | Passes | 556 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 10.20 (better) | Fouls | 11.40 |
| 1.80 (better) | Offsides | 3.00 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.60 | Yellow cards | 1.00 (better) |
| 0.00 | Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Fleetwood Town wins
- 0
- Draws
- 1
- Arsenal wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 2.00
- Over 2.5
- 0%
- Both score
- 100%
- Fleetwood Town v Arsenal1–12026-10-27