Flamengo v 
Estudiantes L.P.
Match statistics
| Flamengo | Estudiantes L.P. | |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
| — | Offsides | — |
| 649 | Passes | 207 |
| 76% | Possession % | 24% |
| 1.15 | xG | 0.81 |
- Over 1.5
- 63%
- Over 2.5
- 36%
- Over 3.5
- 17%
- Both score
- 39%
- Model pick
- Flamengo 53%
- Likely score
- 1-0 16%
- Expected goals
- 1.41 – 0.72
Advised bets
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 2 of 5Flamengo -0.75
Why this price?
Back Flamengo -0.75 on the Asian handicap at 1.50 with Bet365 — Flamengo must win by more than 0.75 goals.
Our model puts the chance at 46% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 85%; we judge it at 70%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.44. The offered 1.50 implies only 67%, so the price is 4.3% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Flamengo 1.41, Estudiantes L.P. 0.72.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Flamengo | 53.1% | 1.88 | 1.40 Betano | 71.4% | -18.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 28.5% | 3.50 | 5.00 Bet365 | 20.0% | +8.5 |
| Match result | Estudiantes L.P. | 18.4% | 5.43 | 12.00 Bet365 | 8.3% | +10.1 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 63.5% | 1.58 | 1.42 Betano | 70.4% | -7.0 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 36.5% | 2.74 | 3.40 Betfair | 29.4% | +7.1 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 35.9% | 2.79 | 2.20 Betfair | 45.5% | -9.6 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 64.1% | 1.56 | 1.80 Betfair | 55.6% | +8.5 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 16.7% | 5.97 | 4.10 Betfair | 24.4% | -7.6 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 83.3% | 1.20 | 1.29 Betfair | 77.5% | +5.7 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 39.4% | 2.54 | 2.75 Bet365 | 36.4% | +3.0 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 60.6% | 1.65 | 1.55 William Hill | 64.5% | -3.9 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Flamengo favoured against Estudiantes L.P.
Our model makes Flamengo 53% to win this CONMEBOL Libertadores fixture, with the draw at 29% and Estudiantes L.P. at 18%. The goal projection is 1.41 for Flamengo against 0.72 for Estudiantes L.P. — a substantial edge to Flamengo on expected output. A combined 2.13 goals points to a low-scoring, tight affair, which puts over 2.5 at 36% and both teams to score at 39%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 16%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-0 16%
- 1-1 13%
- 0-0 12%
- 2-0 12%
- 2-1 9%
This season
| Flamengo | Estudiantes L.P. | |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Played | 33 |
| 23-7-4 | W-D-L | 13-8-12 |
| 2.24 | Pts / game | 1.42 |
| 2.09 | Goals for / game | 1.21 |
| 0.85 | Goals against / game | 0.91 |
| 65% | Over 2.5 | 39% |
| 53% | BTTS | 33% |
| 41% | Clean sheets | 39% |
| 6% | Failed to score | 39% |
| 13-3-1 | Home record | 9-3-5 |
| 10-4-3 | Away record | 4-5-7 |
| W5 | Streak | D2 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Flamengo · Estudiantes L.P.
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 15.4 | Shots | 15.1 |
|---|---|---|
| 6.6 | Shots on target | 4.6 |
| 6.7 | Corners | 5.2 |
| 2.25 | Cards | 2.33 |
| 11.3 | Fouls | 11.8 |
| 59 | Possession % | 55 |
| 1.83 | xG | 1.19 |
| 9 matches | sample | 9 matches |
Conceded
| 12.0 | Shots | 11.4 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.9 | Shots on target | 4.3 |
| 4.1 | Corners | 4.3 |
| 3.03 | Cards | 2.00 |
| 13.8 | Fouls | 14.1 |
| 41 | Possession % | 45 |
| 0.88 | xG | 1.37 |
| 9 matches | sample | 9 matches |
Form comparison
| Flamengo | Metric | Estudiantes L.P. |
|---|---|---|
| 1.60 (better) | Goals scored | 1.40 |
| 1.00 (better) | Goals conceded | 1.60 |
| 2.09 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.95 |
| Big chances | ||
| 6.20 (better) | Shots on target | 5.33 |
| 16.40 | Total shots | 18.67 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 7.20 (better) | Corners | 4.67 |
| 56.0 | Possession % | 56.3 (better) |
| 537 (better) | Passes | 478 |
| Tackles | ||
| 14.40 | Fouls | 11.33 (better) |
| 1.50 (better) | Offsides | 2.00 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 3.40 | Yellow cards | 1.33 (better) |
| 1.00 | Red cards | 0.00 (better) |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Flamengo wins
- 2
- Draws
- 3
- Estudiantes L.P. wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 1.17
- Over 2.5
- 17%
- Both score
- 33%
- Flamengo v Estudiantes L.P.0–02026-10-23
- Estudiantes L.P. v Flamengo0–02026-10-16
- Flamengo v Estudiantes L.P.1–02026-05-21
- Estudiantes L.P. v Flamengo1–12026-04-30
- Estudiantes L.P. v Flamengo1–02025-09-26
- Flamengo v Estudiantes L.P.2–12025-09-19