Predicted Edge

FK Jablonec v Plzen

FK Jablonec won 2 of the last 57th2–3Plzen won 3 of the last 58th

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
FK Jablonec Plzen
23Shots11
9Shots on target3
8Corners3
14Fouls14
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0
1Offsides3
489Passes286
60%Possession %40%
3.16xG1.11
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
30%
Both score
57%
Model pick
Plzen 41%
Likely score
1-1 13%
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.48

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Edge strength 5 of 5

FK Jablonec -0.5

2.70Betano · fair 2.44 · qualifies at 2.52+ · 1.55u
Why this price?

Back FK Jablonec -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 2.70 with Betano — FK Jablonec must win by more than 0.5 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 32% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 47%; we judge it at 41%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.44. The offered 2.70 implies only 37%, so the price is 10.5% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.55 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: FK Jablonec 1.30, Plzen 1.48.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultFK Jablonec32.5%3.082.95 Dafabet33.9%-1.4
Match resultDraw26.7%3.753.60 Betano27.8%-1.1
Match resultPlzen40.9%2.452.88 Bet36534.7%+6.1
Total goalsOver 1.577.3%1.291.29 Betano77.5%-0.2
Total goalsUnder 1.522.7%4.413.80 BetVictor26.3%-3.6
Total goalsUnder 2.547.4%2.112.00 Betfair50.0%-2.6
Total goalsOver 3.530.4%3.293.15 Betano31.7%-1.3
Total goalsUnder 3.569.6%1.441.39 Betano71.9%-2.4
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes56.9%1.761.70 Betano58.8%-1.9
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No43.1%2.322.15 William Hill46.5%-3.4
Total goalsOver 2.552.6%1.901.87 Betano53.5%-0.8

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Plzen favoured against FK Jablonec

Our model makes FK Jablonec 32% to win this Chance Liga fixture, with the draw at 27% and Plzen at 41%. The goal projection is 1.30 for FK Jablonec against 1.48 for Plzen — a slight edge to Plzen on expected output. A combined 2.78 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 53% and both teams to score at 57%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
1-1 13%
1-2 9%
0-1 8%
2-1 8%
1-0 7%

This season

Season records for FK Jablonec and Plzen
FK Jablonec Plzen
14Played14
6-3-5W-D-L5-5-4
1.50Pts / game1.43
1.14Goals for / game2.07
1.29Goals against / game1.57
43%Over 2.571%
43%BTTS71%
36%Clean sheets29%
29%Failed to score7%
3-2-3Home record2-3-3
3-1-2Away record3-2-1
D1StreakD1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. FK Jablonec · Plzen

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
17.2Shots16.5
5.3Shots on target5.3
6.5Corners5.3
1.17Cards2.33
12.0Fouls9.3
54Possession %45
1.50xG2.06
6 matchessample6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
12.0Shots17.0
4.3Shots on target4.2
4.3Corners8.0
2.33Cards2.50
14.2Fouls12.8
46Possession %56
1.18xG1.58
6 matchessample6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
FK JablonecMetricPlzen
1.20Goals scored1.20
0.60 (better)Goals conceded1.60
1.52 (better)Expected goals (xG)1.51
Big chances
5.75 (better)Shots on target4.20
18.25 (better)Total shots14.40
Touches in opp. box
6.75 (better)Corners6.20
56.3 (better)Possession %45.6
472 (better)Passes413
Tackles
11.75Fouls10.00 (better)
1.75 (better)Offsides2.20
Throw-ins
1.00 (better)Yellow cards2.20
0.00 (better)Red cards0.50

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
FK Jablonec wins
0
Draws
2
Plzen wins
2
Goals / game
4.50
Over 2.5
75%
Both score
75%
Chance Liga table
League table
#TeamPWDLGDPtsForm
1Slavia Praha141040+2834Slavia Praha won 3 of the last 5
2Slovan Liberec13823+826Slovan Liberec won 2 of the last 5
3Mlada Boleslav14743+725Mlada Boleslav won 2 of the last 5
4Sparta Praha14734+1224Sparta Praha won 2 of the last 5
5Sigma Olomouc14734+224Sigma Olomouc won 2 of the last 5
6Teplice14635021Teplice won 1 of the last 5
7FK Jablonec14635-221FK Jablonec won 2 of the last 5
8Plzen14554+720Plzen won 3 of the last 5
9Bohemians 190514554020Bohemians 1905 won 2 of the last 5
10Zbrojovka Brno14626-520Zbrojovka Brno won 1 of the last 5
11Hradec Králové14536-118Hradec Králové won 1 of the last 5
12Pardubice14527-117Pardubice won 3 of the last 5
13Baník Ostrava13427-1314Baník Ostrava won 1 of the last 5
14Artis14248-1310Artis won 1 of the last 5
15Slovácko14248-1310Slovácko won 2 of the last 5
16Zlin140311-163Zlin won 0 of the last 5