Ferencvarosi TC v Paks

3rd2–04th

15:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Ferencvarosi TC		Paks
28	Shots	7
10	Shots on target	1
10	Corners	3
14	Fouls	13
1	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
4	Offsides	2
512	Passes	356
60%	Possession %	40%
2.95	xG	0.54

Over 1.5: 85%
Over 2.5: 65%
Over 3.5: 43%
Both score: 62%

Model pick: Ferencvarosi TC 59%
Likely score: 2-1 10%
Expected goals: 2.17 – 1.19

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Ferencvarosi TC	59.2%	1.69	1.50 Betano	66.7%	-7.5
Match result	Draw	21.1%	4.74	4.90 Dafabet	20.4%	+0.7
Match result	Paks	19.7%	5.07	5.60 Betano	17.9%	+1.9
Total goals	Over 1.5	85.4%	1.17	1.11 Betano	90.1%	-4.7
Total goals	Under 1.5	14.6%	6.83	8.00 Bet365	12.5%	+2.1
Total goals	Over 2.5	65.3%	1.53	1.37 Betano	73.0%	-7.7
Total goals	Under 2.5	34.7%	2.88	3.40 Bet365	29.4%	+5.3
Total goals	Over 3.5	43.4%	2.31	1.91 Betano	52.4%	-9.0
Total goals	Under 3.5	56.6%	1.77	2.00 Betfair	50.0%	+6.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	62.2%	1.61	1.50 Bet365	66.7%	-4.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	37.8%	2.64	3.00 Bet365	33.3%	+4.5

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Ferencvarosi TC favoured against Paks

Our model makes Ferencvarosi TC 59% to win this Hungarian NB I fixture, with the draw at 21% and Paks at 20%. The goal projection is 2.17 for Ferencvarosi TC against 1.19 for Paks — a commanding edge to Ferencvarosi TC on expected output. A combined 3.36 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 65% and both teams to score at 62%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 2-1 10%; 1-1 9%; 2-0 8%; 1-0 7%; 3-1 7%

This season

Season records for Ferencvarosi TC and Paks
Ferencvarosi TC		Paks
11	Played	13
5-5-1	W-D-L	6-2-5
1.82	Pts / game	1.54
1.82	Goals for / game	1.85
0.91	Goals against / game	1.69
45%	Over 2.5	62%
55%	BTTS	62%
45%	Clean sheets	31%
9%	Failed to score	8%
2-3-0	Home record	4-1-2
3-2-1	Away record	2-1-3
W2	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Ferencvarosi TC · Paks

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
23.0	Shots	14.2
7.0	Shots on target	4.0
8.0	Corners	6.4
1.60	Cards	2.20
13.4	Fouls	15.2
60	Possession %	52
2.64	xG	1.26
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
9.2	Shots	14.0
2.2	Shots on target	5.6
3.0	Corners	4.2
2.00	Cards	3.20
15.4	Fouls	15.8
40	Possession %	48
0.83	xG	1.73
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Ferencvarosi TC	Metric	Paks
1.80	Goals scored	1.80
1.00 (better)	Goals conceded	1.40
2.23 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	2.04
	Big chances
5.20	Shots on target	7.00 (better)
17.80	Total shots	22.50 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
6.80	Corners	7.75 (better)
56.2 (better)	Possession %	52.8
446 (better)	Passes	379
	Tackles
14.00	Fouls	10.50 (better)
3.00	Offsides	1.25 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.20	Yellow cards	2.00 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Ferencvarosi TC wins: 3
Draws: 1
Paks wins: 1
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 40%
Both score: 40%

Ferencvarosi TC v Paks2–02026-11-01
Paks v Ferencvarosi TC4–22026-07-26
Ferencvarosi TC v Paks2–02026-04-26
Paks v Ferencvarosi TC0–12026-02-01
Ferencvarosi TC v Paks2–22025-10-05

Hungarian NB I table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Puskas Academy	13	8	0	5	+3	24	Puskas Academy won 3 of the last 5
2	Gyori ETO FC	12	6	4	2	+7	22	Gyori ETO FC won 3 of the last 5
3	Ferencvarosi TC	11	5	5	1	+10	20	Ferencvarosi TC won 2 of the last 5
4	Paks	13	6	2	5	+2	20	Paks won 3 of the last 5
5	Debreceni VSC	12	5	4	3	+4	19	Debreceni VSC won 3 of the last 5
6	Ujpest	12	5	3	4	+3	18	Ujpest won 2 of the last 5
7	Vasas	12	4	4	4	+3	16	Vasas won 1 of the last 5
8	Budapest Honved	12	3	5	4	-3	14	Budapest Honved won 2 of the last 5
9	Zalaegerszegi TE	13	4	1	8	-7	13	Zalaegerszegi TE won 2 of the last 5
10	MTK Budapest	13	3	4	6	-9	13	MTK Budapest won 1 of the last 5
11	Kisvarda FC	13	2	6	5	-3	12	Kisvarda FC won 0 of the last 5
12	Nyiregyhaza	12	3	2	7	-10	11	Nyiregyhaza won 1 of the last 5