Ferencvarosi TC won 3 of the last 5WWWDD2nd5–0MTK Budapest won 1 of the last 5DLLWL10th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Ferencvarosi TC
MTK Budapest
24
Shots
4
10
Shots on target
0
10
Corners
1
12
Fouls
16
3
Yellow cards
1
0
Red cards
0
1
Offsides
0
444
Passes
293
70%
Possession %
30%
3.21
xG
0.30
66%
19%
15%
1 · Ferencvarosi TCXMTK Budapest · 2
Over 1.5
86%
Over 2.5
66%
Over 3.5
44%
Both score
59%
Model pick
Ferencvarosi TC 66%
Likely score
2-1 10%
Expected goals
2.35 – 1.05
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Ferencvarosi TC
65.9%
1.52
1.44 Betano
69.4%
-3.5
Match result
Draw
19.1%
5.24
5.00 Bet365
20.0%
-0.9
Match result
MTK Budapest
15.0%
6.66
6.50 Bet365
15.4%
-0.4
Total goals
Over 1.5
85.8%
1.17
1.13 Betano
88.5%
-2.7
Total goals
Under 1.5
14.2%
7.04
6.50 Bet365
15.4%
-1.2
Total goals
Over 2.5
66.1%
1.51
1.40 Bet365
71.4%
-5.3
Total goals
Under 2.5
33.9%
2.95
2.88 Bet365
34.7%
-0.9
Total goals
Over 3.5
44.3%
2.26
2.00 Bet365
50.0%
-5.7
Total goals
Under 3.5
55.7%
1.79
1.82 Betano
54.9%
+0.8
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
59.3%
1.69
1.57 Bet365
63.7%
-4.4
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
40.7%
2.46
2.32 Betano
43.1%
-2.4
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Ferencvarosi TC favoured against MTK Budapest
Our model makes Ferencvarosi TC 66% to win this Hungarian NB I fixture, with the draw at 19% and MTK Budapest at 15%. The goal projection is 2.35 for Ferencvarosi TC against 1.05 for MTK Budapest — a commanding edge to Ferencvarosi TC on expected output. A combined 3.41 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 66% and both teams to score at 59%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Ferencvarosi TC is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 34% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
2-1 10%
2-0 9%
1-1 9%
3-1 8%
1-0 7%
This season
Season records for Ferencvarosi TC and MTK Budapest
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Ferencvarosi TC
Metric
MTK Budapest
2.80 (better)
Goals scored
1.00
0.80 (better)
Goals conceded
1.40
2.01 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
0.82
—
Big chances *
—
5.50
Shots on target
5.75 (better)
15.00
Total shots
16.75 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
4.50
Corners
5.25 (better)
49.0
Possession %
51.8 (better)
405
Passes
455 (better)
—
Tackles
—
12.50 (better)
Fouls
13.25
3.00
Offsides
1.00 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.25
Yellow cards
1.75 (better)
0.00 (better)
Red cards
1.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Football statistics and betting opinion for adults. Gambling involves risk — never stake money you cannot afford to lose. By continuing you confirm you are 18 or over. We would also like to use analytics cookies to see which pages are useful. Privacy policy
Ferencvarosi TC v 
MTK Budapest