FCSB v Rapid

8th4–13rd

18:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
FCSB		Rapid
22	Shots	6
9	Shots on target	2
7	Corners	0
8	Fouls	13
0	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	2
486	Passes	334
59%	Possession %	41%
2.35	xG	0.48

Over 1.5: 81%
Over 2.5: 57%
Over 3.5: 35%
Both score: 61%

Model pick: Rapid 38%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.49 – 1.50

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	39.2%	2.55	2.25 Betfair	44.4%	-5.2
Match result	FCSB	37.0%	2.70	2.50 Betano	40.0%	-3.0
Match result	Draw	25.5%	3.93	3.50 Betfair	28.6%	-3.1
Match result	Rapid	37.5%	2.67	3.30 Betfair	30.3%	+7.2
Total goals	Over 1.5	80.5%	1.24	1.27 Betano	78.7%	+1.8
Total goals	Under 1.5	19.5%	5.13	3.80 Betfair	26.3%	-6.8
Total goals	Over 2.5	57.5%	1.74	1.88 Betano	53.2%	+4.3
Total goals	Under 2.5	42.5%	2.35	2.02 Betano	49.5%	-7.0
Total goals	Over 3.5	35.1%	2.85	3.25 Bet365	30.8%	+4.3
Total goals	Under 3.5	64.9%	1.54	1.40 Betano	71.4%	-6.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	60.8%	1.65	1.73 Bet365	57.8%	+3.0

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

FCSB v Rapid: too close to call

Our model makes FCSB 37% to win this Romanian Liga I fixture, with the draw at 25% and Rapid at 37%. The goal projection is 1.49 for FCSB against 1.50 for Rapid — almost nothing to Rapid on expected output. A combined 2.99 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 58% and both teams to score at 61%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 1-2 8%; 2-1 8%; 0-1 7%; 1-0 7%

This season

Season records for FCSB and Rapid
FCSB		Rapid
15	Played	15
6-3-6	W-D-L	9-4-2
1.40	Pts / game	2.07
1.33	Goals for / game	1.60
1.40	Goals against / game	0.93
53%	Over 2.5	33%
47%	BTTS	53%
27%	Clean sheets	40%
33%	Failed to score	13%
4-2-2	Home record	6-1-1
2-1-4	Away record	3-3-1
L2	Streak	D1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. FCSB · Rapid

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
19.4	Shots	13.2
7.0	Shots on target	4.8
5.8	Corners	3.2
2.00	Cards	2.40
13.0	Fouls	10.6
61	Possession %	48
2.18	xG	1.22
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
10.0	Shots	16.4
2.4	Shots on target	4.0
2.2	Corners	6.0
2.73	Cards	2.20
12.4	Fouls	10.8
39	Possession %	52
0.78	xG	1.65
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
FCSB	Metric	Rapid
1.80	Goals scored	2.40 (better)
1.80	Goals conceded	1.00 (better)
2.42 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	2.24
	Big chances
4.50	Shots on target	7.00 (better)
16.75	Total shots	19.00 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
5.75	Corners	7.00 (better)
52.5 (better)	Possession %	50.8
418 (better)	Passes	416
	Tackles
9.75 (better)	Fouls	10.00
1.75 (better)	Offsides	2.67
	Throw-ins
2.25	Yellow cards	1.75 (better)
0.25	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

FCSB wins: 2
Draws: 1
Rapid wins: 0
Goals / game: 4.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

FCSB v Rapid4–12026-10-24
FCSB v Rapid2–12025-12-21
Rapid v FCSB2–22025-08-17

Romanian Liga I table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Universitatea Craiova	15	10	3	2	+24	33	Universitatea Craiova won 4 of the last 5
2	Dinamo Bucuresti	15	10	3	2	+21	33	Dinamo Bucuresti won 3 of the last 5
3	Rapid	15	9	4	2	+10	31	Rapid won 3 of the last 5
4	Petrolul Ploiesti	15	8	3	4	+2	27	Petrolul Ploiesti won 2 of the last 5
5	Universitatea Cluj	15	8	2	5	+6	26	Universitatea Cluj won 2 of the last 5
6	Farul Constanta	15	6	6	3	+2	24	Farul Constanta won 3 of the last 5
7	Corvinul Hunedoara	15	6	4	5	+1	22	Corvinul Hunedoara won 3 of the last 5
8	FCSB	15	6	3	6	-1	21	FCSB won 3 of the last 5
9	CFR 1907 Cluj	15	5	4	6	-1	19	CFR 1907 Cluj won 1 of the last 5
10	Uta Arad	15	5	3	7	-4	18	Uta Arad won 2 of the last 5
11	Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe	15	4	6	5	-9	18	Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe won 1 of the last 5
12	FC Botosani	15	3	6	6	-1	15	FC Botosani won 1 of the last 5
13	Arges Pitesti	15	4	3	8	-7	15	Arges Pitesti won 1 of the last 5
14	Oţelul	15	2	7	6	-6	13	Oţelul won 0 of the last 5
15	FC Voluntari	15	2	2	11	-18	8	FC Voluntari won 0 of the last 5
16	Csikszereda	15	1	3	11	-19	6	Csikszereda won 1 of the last 5