FC Tokyo won 4 of the last 5WWWDW1st6–0Mito Hollyhock won 0 of the last 5LLLLL19th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
FC Tokyo
Mito Hollyhock
23
Shots
11
11
Shots on target
2
7
Corners
5
7
Fouls
8
1
Yellow cards
0
0
Red cards
0
1
Offsides
0
498
Passes
432
54%
Possession %
46%
2.59
xG
0.80
60%
22%
18%
1 · FC TokyoXMito Hollyhock · 2
Over 1.5
81%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
36%
Both score
56%
Model pick
FC Tokyo 60%
Likely score
1-1 10%
Expected goals
2.00 – 1.02
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
FC Tokyo
59.6%
1.68
1.32 Betano
75.8%
-16.2
Match result
Draw
22.2%
4.50
5.60 Dafabet
17.9%
+4.3
Match result
Mito Hollyhock
18.2%
5.49
11.00 Bet365
9.1%
+9.1
Total goals
Over 1.5
81.0%
1.24
1.23 Betano
81.3%
-0.3
Total goals
Under 1.5
19.0%
5.26
4.33 Betfair
23.1%
-4.1
Total goals
Over 2.5
58.3%
1.72
1.73 Bet365
57.8%
+0.5
Total goals
Under 2.5
41.7%
2.40
2.15 Betfair
46.5%
-4.8
Total goals
Over 3.5
35.9%
2.79
2.88 Betfair
34.7%
+1.2
Total goals
Under 3.5
64.1%
1.56
1.44 Betano
69.4%
-5.3
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
55.9%
1.79
2.20 Betfair
45.5%
+10.5
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
44.1%
2.27
1.75 Betfair
57.1%
-13.1
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
FC Tokyo favoured against Mito Hollyhock
Our model makes FC Tokyo 60% to win this J1 League fixture, with the draw at 22% and Mito Hollyhock at 18%. The goal projection is 2.00 for FC Tokyo against 1.02 for Mito Hollyhock — a commanding edge to FC Tokyo on expected output. A combined 3.03 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 58% and both teams to score at 56%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
FC Tokyo
Metric
Mito Hollyhock
2.60 (better)
Goals scored
1.80
0.20 (better)
Goals conceded
1.00
2.15 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
0.34
—
Big chances *
—
6.50 (better)
Shots on target
1.33
19.00 (better)
Total shots
5.33
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
7.00 (better)
Corners
4.00
68.0 (better)
Possession %
41.7
571 (better)
Passes
380
—
Tackles
—
11.00
Fouls
7.33 (better)
1.00 (better)
Offsides
2.33
—
Throw-ins *
—
0.50 (better)
Yellow cards
2.00
0.00 (better)
Red cards
0.33
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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FC Tokyo v 
Mito Hollyhock