FC Tokyo v Kashiwa Reysol

1st0–02nd

10:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
FC Tokyo		Kashiwa Reysol
19	Shots	12
3	Shots on target	3
4	Corners	5
8	Fouls	8
3	Yellow cards	4
0	Red cards	0
0	Offsides	1
586	Passes	469
55%	Possession %	45%
1.69	xG	1.08

Over 1.5: 86%
Over 2.5: 67%
Over 3.5: 45%
Both score: 67%

Model pick: FC Tokyo 46%
Likely score: 1-1 10%
Expected goals: 1.90 – 1.54

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Over 2.5

1.80Bet365 · fair 1.71 · qualifies at 1.78+ · 1.59u

Why this price?

Back over 2.5 goals at 1.80 with Bet365 — 3 goals or more in the match.

Our model puts the chance at 67% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 53%; we judge it at 58%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.71. The offered 1.80 implies only 56%, so the price is 5.1% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.59 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: FC Tokyo 1.90, Kashiwa Reysol 1.54.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Half lostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

FC Tokyo -0.25

1.85Bet365 · fair 1.78 · qualifies at 1.83+ · 1.22u

Why this price?

Back FC Tokyo -0.25 on the Asian handicap at 1.85 with Bet365 — FC Tokyo must win by more than 0.25 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 52% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 59%; we judge it at 56%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.78. The offered 1.85 implies only 54%, so the price is 4.1% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.22 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: FC Tokyo 1.90, Kashiwa Reysol 1.54.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	32.7%	3.06	2.20 Betfair	45.5%	-12.8
Match result	FC Tokyo	45.9%	2.18	2.15 BetVictor	46.5%	-0.7
Match result	Draw	23.1%	4.33	3.75 BetVictor	26.7%	-3.6
Match result	Kashiwa Reysol	31.1%	3.22	4.00 Betfair	25.0%	+6.1
Total goals	Over 1.5	86.2%	1.16	1.25 Betano	80.0%	+6.2
Total goals	Under 1.5	13.8%	7.27	4.20 Betfair	23.8%	-10.1
Total goals	Over 2.5	66.8%	1.50	1.80 Bet365	55.6%	+11.3
Total goals	Under 2.5	33.2%	3.01	2.05 Bet365	48.8%	-15.6
Total goals	Over 3.5	45.1%	2.22	2.88 Betfair	34.7%	+10.3
Total goals	Under 3.5	54.9%	1.82	1.42 Betano	70.4%	-15.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	67.3%	1.49	1.67 Bet365	59.9%	+7.4

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

FC Tokyo favoured against Kashiwa Reysol

Our model makes FC Tokyo 46% to win this J1 League fixture, with the draw at 23% and Kashiwa Reysol at 31%. The goal projection is 1.90 for FC Tokyo against 1.54 for Kashiwa Reysol — a clear edge to FC Tokyo on expected output. A combined 3.44 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 67% and both teams to score at 67%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 10%; 2-1 9%; 1-2 7%; 2-2 7%; 2-0 6%

This season

Season records for FC Tokyo and Kashiwa Reysol
FC Tokyo		Kashiwa Reysol
14	Played	14
10-3-1	W-D-L	10-1-3
2.36	Pts / game	2.21
2.36	Goals for / game	2.21
0.57	Goals against / game	1.43
50%	Over 2.5	71%
21%	BTTS	64%
79%	Clean sheets	21%
7%	Failed to score	21%
6-1-1	Home record	5-0-2
4-2-0	Away record	5-1-1
W3	Streak	W3

2027/28 league matches only, computed from results on record. FC Tokyo · Kashiwa Reysol

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
18.8	Shots	15.3
6.3	Shots on target	6.0
5.8	Corners	4.5
1.50	Cards	1.67
10.2	Fouls	10.0
57	Possession %	47
2.36	xG	1.15
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
9.2	Shots	16.2
2.0	Shots on target	3.3
4.8	Corners	4.2
1.67	Cards	1.20
9.3	Fouls	8.0
43	Possession %	53
0.65	xG	1.50
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
FC Tokyo	Metric	Kashiwa Reysol
2.40	Goals scored	3.60 (better)
0.00 (better)	Goals conceded	2.00
1.85	Expected goals (xG)
	Big chances
4.33	Shots on target	5.67 (better)
13.33	Total shots	17.00 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
6.00	Corners	6.00
46.3	Possession %	57.3 (better)
388	Passes	557 (better)
	Tackles
15.00	Fouls	10.67 (better)
1.67 (better)	Offsides	2.00
	Throw-ins
2.67	Yellow cards	2.00 (better)
0.50	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

FC Tokyo wins: 1
Draws: 1
Kashiwa Reysol wins: 1
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 33%

J1 League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	FC Tokyo	14	10	3	1	+25	33	FC Tokyo won 4 of the last 5
2	Kashiwa Reysol	14	10	1	3	+11	31	Kashiwa Reysol won 3 of the last 5
3	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	14	9	3	2	+22	30	Sanfrecce Hiroshima won 3 of the last 5
4	Machida Zelvia	14	8	5	1	+20	29	Machida Zelvia won 2 of the last 5
5	Vissel Kobe	14	8	3	3	+9	27	Vissel Kobe won 2 of the last 5
6	Kashima	14	7	2	5	+5	23	Kashima won 2 of the last 5
7	Yokohama F. Marinos	14	5	7	2	+6	22	Yokohama F. Marinos won 1 of the last 5
8	Kawasaki Frontale	14	6	4	4	+4	22	Kawasaki Frontale won 3 of the last 5
9	Urawa	14	7	1	6	-6	22	Urawa won 3 of the last 5
10	Fagiano Okayama	14	5	2	7	-6	17	Fagiano Okayama won 1 of the last 5
11	Cerezo Osaka	14	4	5	5	-9	17	Cerezo Osaka won 1 of the last 5
12	Kyoto Sanga	14	4	4	6	-4	16	Kyoto Sanga won 2 of the last 5
13	Nagoya Grampus	14	4	2	8	-8	14	Nagoya Grampus won 1 of the last 5
14	Tokyo Verdy	14	3	5	6	-10	14	Tokyo Verdy won 3 of the last 5
15	Shimizu S-pulse	14	4	2	8	-13	14	Shimizu S-pulse won 0 of the last 5
16	V-varen Nagasaki	14	3	4	7	-5	13	V-varen Nagasaki won 1 of the last 5
17	JEF United Chiba	14	3	4	7	-8	13	JEF United Chiba won 2 of the last 5
18	Gamba Osaka	14	2	6	6	-8	12	Gamba Osaka won 1 of the last 5
19	Mito Hollyhock	14	2	3	9	-14	9	Mito Hollyhock won 0 of the last 5
20	Avispa Fukuoka	14	2	2	10	-11	8	Avispa Fukuoka won 0 of the last 5