FC Tokyo v Kashima

1st2–06th

06:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
FC Tokyo		Kashima
11	Shots	7
3	Shots on target	1
5	Corners	7
16	Fouls	10
3	Yellow cards	2
1	Red cards	0
0	Offsides	2
360	Passes	579
38%	Possession %	62%
1.27	xG	0.29

Over 1.5: 84%
Over 2.5: 63%
Over 3.5: 41%
Both score: 65%

Model pick: FC Tokyo 42%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.72 – 1.53

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	FC Tokyo	42.1%	2.38	2.05 BetVictor	48.8%	-6.7
Match result	Draw	24.2%	4.14	3.70 BetVictor	27.0%	-2.9
Match result	Kashima	33.8%	2.96	3.80 Bet365	26.3%	+7.5
Total goals	Over 1.5	84.0%	1.19	1.23 Betano	81.3%	+2.7
Total goals	Under 1.5	16.0%	6.24	4.33 Bet365	23.1%	-7.1
Total goals	Over 2.5	62.9%	1.59	1.73 Betfair	57.8%	+5.1
Total goals	Under 2.5	37.1%	2.70	2.15 Betfair	46.5%	-9.4
Total goals	Over 3.5	40.7%	2.45	2.70 Betfair	37.0%	+3.7
Total goals	Under 3.5	59.3%	1.69	1.45 Betano	69.0%	-9.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	64.7%	1.54	1.62 Bet365	61.7%	+3.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	35.3%	2.84	2.30 Betfair	43.5%	-8.2

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

FC Tokyo favoured against Kashima

Our model makes FC Tokyo 42% to win this J1 League fixture, with the draw at 24% and Kashima at 34%. The goal projection is 1.72 for FC Tokyo against 1.53 for Kashima — a slight edge to FC Tokyo on expected output. A combined 3.25 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 63% and both teams to score at 65%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 2-1 9%; 1-2 8%; 2-2 7%; 1-0 6%

This season

Season records for FC Tokyo and Kashima
FC Tokyo		Kashima
14	Played	14
10-3-1	W-D-L	7-2-5
2.36	Pts / game	1.64
2.36	Goals for / game	2.07
0.57	Goals against / game	1.71
50%	Over 2.5	64%
21%	BTTS	64%
79%	Clean sheets	21%
7%	Failed to score	14%
6-1-1	Home record	5-0-2
4-2-0	Away record	2-2-3
W3	Streak	L1

2027/28 league matches only, computed from results on record. FC Tokyo · Kashima

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
18.8	Shots	14.2
6.3	Shots on target	4.7
5.8	Corners	5.7
1.50	Cards	1.17
10.2	Fouls	10.8
57	Possession %	59
2.36	xG	1.40
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
9.2	Shots	11.5
2.0	Shots on target	4.0
4.8	Corners	3.5
1.67	Cards	2.33
9.3	Fouls	16.2
43	Possession %	41
0.65	xG	0.86
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
FC Tokyo	Metric	Kashima
2.60 (better)	Goals scored	2.00
0.20 (better)	Goals conceded	1.00
2.32 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.50
	Big chances
6.75 (better)	Shots on target	4.80
20.00 (better)	Total shots	14.60
	Touches in opp. box
6.25 (better)	Corners	4.20
61.5 (better)	Possession %	61.2
557	Passes	609 (better)
	Tackles
9.25	Fouls	8.20 (better)
0.75 (better)	Offsides	1.20
	Throw-ins
1.25	Yellow cards	0.20 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

FC Tokyo wins: 1
Draws: 1
Kashima wins: 1
Goals / game: 1.67
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 33%

FC Tokyo v Kashima2–02026-11-07
Kashima v FC Tokyo1–02026-05-23
FC Tokyo v Kashima1–12026-02-07

J1 League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	FC Tokyo	14	10	3	1	+25	33	FC Tokyo won 4 of the last 5
2	Kashiwa Reysol	14	10	1	3	+11	31	Kashiwa Reysol won 3 of the last 5
3	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	14	9	3	2	+22	30	Sanfrecce Hiroshima won 3 of the last 5
4	Machida Zelvia	14	8	5	1	+20	29	Machida Zelvia won 2 of the last 5
5	Vissel Kobe	14	8	3	3	+9	27	Vissel Kobe won 2 of the last 5
6	Kashima	14	7	2	5	+5	23	Kashima won 2 of the last 5
7	Yokohama F. Marinos	14	5	7	2	+6	22	Yokohama F. Marinos won 1 of the last 5
8	Kawasaki Frontale	14	6	4	4	+4	22	Kawasaki Frontale won 3 of the last 5
9	Urawa	14	7	1	6	-6	22	Urawa won 3 of the last 5
10	Fagiano Okayama	14	5	2	7	-6	17	Fagiano Okayama won 1 of the last 5
11	Cerezo Osaka	14	4	5	5	-9	17	Cerezo Osaka won 1 of the last 5
12	Kyoto Sanga	14	4	4	6	-4	16	Kyoto Sanga won 2 of the last 5
13	Nagoya Grampus	14	4	2	8	-8	14	Nagoya Grampus won 1 of the last 5
14	Tokyo Verdy	14	3	5	6	-10	14	Tokyo Verdy won 3 of the last 5
15	Shimizu S-pulse	14	4	2	8	-13	14	Shimizu S-pulse won 0 of the last 5
16	V-varen Nagasaki	14	3	4	7	-5	13	V-varen Nagasaki won 1 of the last 5
17	JEF United Chiba	14	3	4	7	-8	13	JEF United Chiba won 2 of the last 5
18	Gamba Osaka	14	2	6	6	-8	12	Gamba Osaka won 1 of the last 5
19	Mito Hollyhock	14	2	3	9	-14	9	Mito Hollyhock won 0 of the last 5
20	Avispa Fukuoka	14	2	2	10	-11	8	Avispa Fukuoka won 0 of the last 5