FC Seoul won 1 of the last 5LLDDW1st0–1Incheon United won 3 of the last 5LWWDW6th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
FC Seoul
Incheon United
3
Shots
7
2
Shots on target
4
2
Corners
2
—
Fouls
—
0
Yellow cards
1
0
Red cards
0
—
Offsides
—
—
Passes
—
46%
Possession %
54%
—
xG
—
42%
28%
30%
1 · FC SeoulXIncheon United · 2
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
25%
Both score
52%
Model pick
FC Seoul 42%
Likely score
1-1 13%
Expected goals
1.40 – 1.13
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
FC Seoul
42.5%
2.35
1.83 Dafabet
54.6%
-12.2
Match result
Draw
27.8%
3.60
3.75 Betfair
26.7%
+1.1
Match result
Incheon United
29.8%
3.36
4.50 Bet365
22.2%
+7.6
Total goals
Over 1.5
72.6%
1.38
1.31 Betano
76.3%
-3.7
Total goals
Under 1.5
27.4%
3.65
3.60 BetVictor
27.8%
-0.4
Total goals
Over 2.5
46.5%
2.15
1.93 Betano
51.8%
-5.3
Total goals
Under 2.5
53.5%
1.87
1.90 Bet365
52.6%
+0.8
Total goals
Over 3.5
25.0%
4.00
3.30 BetVictor
30.3%
-5.3
Total goals
Under 3.5
75.0%
1.33
1.35 Betano
74.1%
+0.9
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
51.7%
1.93
1.87 Betfair
53.5%
-1.7
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
48.3%
2.07
1.95 William Hill
51.3%
-3.0
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
FC Seoul favoured against Incheon United
Our model makes FC Seoul 42% to win this K League 1 fixture, with the draw at 28% and Incheon United at 30%. The goal projection is 1.40 for FC Seoul against 1.13 for Incheon United — a clear edge to FC Seoul on expected output. A combined 2.54 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 47% and both teams to score at 52%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
FC Seoul
Metric
Incheon United
1.20
Goals scored
1.60 (better)
1.80
Goals conceded
0.60 (better)
0.85
Expected goals (xG)
1.08 (better)
—
Big chances *
—
3.50
Shots on target
5.00 (better)
11.75 (better)
Total shots
10.00
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
3.25 (better)
Corners
2.33
53.5 (better)
Possession %
50.0
424
Passes
492 (better)
—
Tackles
—
11.50
Fouls
10.33 (better)
1.50
Offsides
0.33 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.75
Yellow cards
0.33 (better)
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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FC Seoul v 
Incheon United