FC Seoul won 1 of the last 5LLDDW1st2–2Gimcheon Sangmu FC won 1 of the last 5WDLDL10th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
FC Seoul
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
8
Shots
7
2
Shots on target
4
4
Corners
6
—
Fouls
—
4
Yellow cards
2
0
Red cards
0
—
Offsides
—
—
Passes
—
56%
Possession %
44%
—
xG
—
51%
26%
22%
1 · FC SeoulXGimcheon Sangmu FC · 2
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
26%
Both score
50%
Model pick
FC Seoul 51%
Likely score
1-1 12%
Expected goals
1.60 – 0.97
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
FC Seoul
51.4%
1.95
1.63 Dafabet
61.3%
-10.0
Match result
Draw
26.2%
3.82
4.33 BetVictor
23.1%
+3.1
Match result
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
22.4%
4.46
8.00 Bet365
12.5%
+9.9
Total goals
Over 1.5
73.3%
1.36
1.21 Betano
82.6%
-9.3
Total goals
Under 1.5
26.7%
3.75
5.25 BetVictor
19.0%
+7.6
Total goals
Over 2.5
47.5%
2.11
1.65 Betano
60.6%
-13.1
Total goals
Under 2.5
52.5%
1.90
2.34 BetVictor
42.7%
+9.8
Total goals
Over 3.5
25.8%
3.87
2.55 BetVictor
39.2%
-13.4
Total goals
Under 3.5
74.2%
1.35
1.50 Bet365
66.7%
+7.5
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
50.3%
1.99
1.73 Bet365
57.8%
-7.5
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
49.7%
2.01
2.00 William Hill
50.0%
-0.3
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
FC Seoul favoured against Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Our model makes FC Seoul 51% to win this K League 1 fixture, with the draw at 26% and Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 22%. The goal projection is 1.60 for FC Seoul against 0.97 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC — a substantial edge to FC Seoul on expected output. A combined 2.57 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 48% and both teams to score at 50%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 12%
1-0 12%
2-0 10%
2-1 10%
0-0 8%
This season
Season records for FC Seoul and Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
FC Seoul
Metric
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
1.00
Goals scored
1.20 (better)
1.20
Goals conceded
1.00 (better)
—
Expected goals (xG)
—
—
Big chances *
—
6.25 (better)
Shots on target
4.40
15.50 (better)
Total shots
12.80
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
4.25 (better)
Corners
4.20
59.3 (better)
Possession %
49.2
476
Passes
484 (better)
—
Tackles
—
9.67 (better)
Fouls
10.50
1.33 (better)
Offsides
2.00
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.00
Yellow cards
1.00
0.00 (better)
Red cards
0.20
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Football statistics and betting opinion for adults. Gambling involves risk — never stake money you cannot afford to lose. By continuing you confirm you are 18 or over. We would also like to use analytics cookies to see which pages are useful. Privacy policy
FC Seoul v 
Gimcheon Sangmu FC