FC Seoul v Gangwon FC

1st1–14th

05:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
FC Seoul		Gangwon FC
5	Shots	8
2	Shots on target	4
4	Corners	4
—	Fouls	—
2	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
—	Offsides	—
—	Passes	—
43%	Possession %	57%
—	xG	—

Over 1.5: 65%
Over 2.5: 37%
Over 3.5: 18%
Both score: 44%

Model pick: FC Seoul 43%
Likely score: 1-1 14%
Expected goals: 1.24 – 0.94

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	FC Seoul	42.5%	2.35	1.86 Dafabet	53.8%	-11.3
Match result	Draw	30.2%	3.32	3.60 Betano	27.8%	+2.4
Match result	Gangwon FC	27.3%	3.66	4.40 Dafabet	22.7%	+4.6
Total goals	Over 1.5	64.7%	1.54	1.33 Bet365	75.2%	-10.5
Total goals	Under 1.5	35.3%	2.84	3.40 Bet365	29.4%	+5.9
Total goals	Over 2.5	37.2%	2.69	2.07 Betano	48.3%	-11.1
Total goals	Under 2.5	62.8%	1.59	1.85 Bet365	54.1%	+8.7
Total goals	Over 3.5	17.7%	5.65	3.60 BetVictor	27.8%	-10.1
Total goals	Under 3.5	82.3%	1.22	1.32 Betano	75.8%	+6.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	44.0%	2.27	1.90 Betfair	52.6%	-8.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	56.0%	1.78	1.90 BetVictor	52.6%	+3.4

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

FC Seoul favoured against Gangwon FC

Our model makes FC Seoul 42% to win this K League 1 fixture, with the draw at 30% and Gangwon FC at 27%. The goal projection is 1.24 for FC Seoul against 0.94 for Gangwon FC — a clear edge to FC Seoul on expected output. A combined 2.18 goals points to a low-scoring, tight affair, which puts over 2.5 at 37% and both teams to score at 44%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 14%; 1-0 13%; 0-0 12%; 0-1 10%; 2-0 9%

This season

Season records for FC Seoul and Gangwon FC
FC Seoul		Gangwon FC
35	Played	35
20-7-8	W-D-L	12-15-8
1.91	Pts / game	1.46
1.77	Goals for / game	1.26
0.91	Goals against / game	0.97
57%	Over 2.5	40%
54%	BTTS	49%
37%	Clean sheets	40%
20%	Failed to score	26%
9-4-5	Home record	6-9-3
11-3-3	Away record	6-6-5
L2	Streak	W1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. FC Seoul · Gangwon FC

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
7.8	Shots	12.0
3.8	Shots on target	6.2
4.0	Corners	4.8
1.60	Cards	1.50
—	Fouls	—
52	Possession %	60
—	xG	—
5 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
8.2	Shots	7.0
4.2	Shots on target	3.7
3.2	Corners	2.3
1.60	Cards	1.67
—	Fouls	—
48	Possession %	41
—	xG	—
5 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
FC Seoul	Metric	Gangwon FC
1.00 (better)	Goals scored	0.60
1.60	Goals conceded	0.60 (better)
0.85	Expected goals (xG)	2.30 (better)
	Big chances
5.50 (better)	Shots on target	5.00
13.75 (better)	Total shots	11.75
	Touches in opp. box
3.50	Corners	6.00 (better)
58.0	Possession %	59.5 (better)
444	Passes	474 (better)
	Tackles
11.00 (better)	Fouls	12.00
1.75 (better)	Offsides	2.00
	Throw-ins
1.50 (better)	Yellow cards	2.50
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

FC Seoul wins: 2
Draws: 2
Gangwon FC wins: 1
Goals / game: 3.20
Over 2.5: 60%
Both score: 80%

FC Seoul v Gangwon FC1–12026-10-24
FC Seoul v Gangwon FC0–02026-07-12
Gangwon FC v FC Seoul1–22026-04-25
FC Seoul v Gangwon FC4–22025-10-26
Gangwon FC v FC Seoul3–22025-09-13

K League 1 table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	FC Seoul	35	20	7	8	+30	67	FC Seoul won 1 of the last 5
2	Ulsan Hyundai FC	35	17	6	12	+7	57	Ulsan Hyundai FC won 3 of the last 5
3	Daejeon Citizen	35	14	11	10	+14	53	Daejeon Citizen won 4 of the last 5
4	Gangwon FC	35	12	15	8	+10	51	Gangwon FC won 2 of the last 5
5	Jeonbuk Motors	35	12	13	10	+9	49	Jeonbuk Motors won 1 of the last 5
6	Incheon United	35	13	10	12	+7	49	Incheon United won 3 of the last 5
7	Jeju United FC	35	12	12	11	+2	48	Jeju United FC won 0 of the last 5
8	FC Anyang	35	11	13	11	-8	46	FC Anyang won 2 of the last 5
9	Pohang Steelers	35	11	11	13	-9	44	Pohang Steelers won 0 of the last 5
10	Gimcheon Sangmu FC	35	6	20	9	-7	38	Gimcheon Sangmu FC won 1 of the last 5
11	Bucheon FC 1995	35	7	12	16	-16	33	Bucheon FC 1995 won 0 of the last 5
12	Gwangju FC	35	3	14	18	-39	23	Gwangju FC won 2 of the last 5