FC Nordsjaelland won 1 of the last 5WLDDD4th2–3FC Midtjylland won 4 of the last 5DWWWW2nd
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
FC Nordsjaelland
FC Midtjylland
24
Shots
13
12
Shots on target
4
6
Corners
2
8
Fouls
15
1
Yellow cards
1
0
Red cards
0
1
Offsides
1
486
Passes
459
52%
Possession %
48%
4.04
xG
2.23
35%
26%
38%
1 · FC NordsjaellandXFC Midtjylland · 2
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
32%
Both score
58%
Model pick
FC Midtjylland 38%
Likely score
1-1 12%
Expected goals
1.39 – 1.46
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
FC Nordsjaelland
35.4%
2.83
2.32 Dafabet
43.1%
-7.7
Match result
Draw
26.2%
3.82
3.80 Bet365
26.3%
-0.1
Match result
FC Midtjylland
38.4%
2.60
2.90 Bet365
34.5%
+3.9
Total goals
Over 1.5
78.3%
1.28
1.17 Betano
85.5%
-7.2
Total goals
Under 1.5
21.7%
4.60
6.00 Betfair
16.7%
+5.1
Total goals
Over 2.5
54.1%
1.85
1.53 Bet365
65.4%
-11.2
Total goals
Under 2.5
45.9%
2.18
2.75 BetVictor
36.4%
+9.5
Total goals
Over 3.5
31.8%
3.14
2.30 Betfair
43.5%
-11.6
Total goals
Under 3.5
68.2%
1.47
1.67 Betano
59.9%
+8.3
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
58.2%
1.72
1.44 Bet365
69.4%
-11.3
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
41.8%
2.39
2.80 BetVictor
35.7%
+6.1
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
FC Nordsjaelland v FC Midtjylland: too close to call
Our model makes FC Nordsjaelland 35% to win this Danish Superliga fixture, with the draw at 26% and FC Midtjylland at 38%. The goal projection is 1.39 for FC Nordsjaelland against 1.46 for FC Midtjylland — almost nothing to FC Midtjylland on expected output. A combined 2.85 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 54% and both teams to score at 58%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 12%
1-2 9%
2-1 8%
0-1 8%
1-0 7%
This season
Season records for FC Nordsjaelland and FC Midtjylland
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
FC Nordsjaelland
Metric
FC Midtjylland
1.20
Goals scored
1.20
1.80
Goals conceded
1.00 (better)
1.65
Expected goals (xG)
1.68 (better)
—
Big chances *
—
5.50 (better)
Shots on target
4.20
15.50 (better)
Total shots
11.60
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
7.00 (better)
Corners
4.20
57.0 (better)
Possession %
42.2
532 (better)
Passes
336
—
Tackles
—
12.75
Fouls
12.00 (better)
2.25
Offsides
1.40 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
4.25
Yellow cards
1.20 (better)
0.33
Red cards
0.33
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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FC Nordsjaelland v 
FC Midtjylland