FC Midtjylland v Lyngby

2nd3–210th

13:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
FC Midtjylland		Lyngby
19	Shots	12
7	Shots on target	5
5	Corners	2
10	Fouls	13
1	Yellow cards	0
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	1
430	Passes	419
52%	Possession %	48%
2.47	xG	0.74

Over 1.5: 88%
Over 2.5: 69%
Over 3.5: 48%
Both score: 58%

Model pick: FC Midtjylland 72%
Likely score: 2-0 10%
Expected goals: 2.61 – 0.97

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Total goals	Over 2.5	69.3%	1.44	1.50 Betano	66.7%	+2.7
Total goals	Under 2.5	30.7%	3.26	2.70 Bet365	37.0%	-6.4
Total goals	Over 3.5	48.0%	2.08	2.20 Bet365	45.5%	+2.6
Total goals	Under 3.5	52.0%	1.92	1.72 Betano	58.1%	-6.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	57.8%	1.73	1.67 Bet365	59.9%	-2.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	42.2%	2.37	2.30 Betfair	43.5%	-1.3
Match result	FC Midtjylland	72.2%	1.39	1.49 Dafabet	67.1%	+5.1
Match result	Draw	16.5%	6.07	5.00 Bet365	20.0%	-3.5
Match result	Lyngby	11.3%	8.84	7.00 Betfair	14.3%	-3.0
Total goals	Over 1.5	87.6%	1.14	1.15 Betano	87.0%	+0.6
Total goals	Under 1.5	12.4%	8.04	6.00 Bet365	16.7%	-4.2

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

FC Midtjylland favoured against Lyngby

Our model makes FC Midtjylland 72% to win this Danish Superliga fixture, with the draw at 16% and Lyngby at 11%. The goal projection is 2.61 for FC Midtjylland against 0.97 for Lyngby — a commanding edge to FC Midtjylland on expected output. A combined 3.58 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 69% and both teams to score at 58%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. FC Midtjylland is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 28% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 2-0 10%; 2-1 9%; 3-0 8%; 3-1 8%; 1-1 7%

This season

Season records for FC Midtjylland and Lyngby
FC Midtjylland		Lyngby
14	Played	14
9-5-0	W-D-L	2-5-7
2.29	Pts / game	0.79
2.07	Goals for / game	1.36
1.21	Goals against / game	2.07
64%	Over 2.5	57%
86%	BTTS	71%
14%	Clean sheets	7%
0%	Failed to score	21%
5-2-0	Home record	1-5-1
4-3-0	Away record	1-0-6
D1	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. FC Midtjylland · Lyngby

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
14.6	Shots	12.2
5.0	Shots on target	5.6
4.6	Corners	2.2
1.40	Cards	1.60
11.6	Fouls	14.2
49	Possession %	50
2.01	xG	1.33
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.8	Shots	16.0
5.2	Shots on target	5.6
3.6	Corners	4.8
2.40	Cards	3.00
14.2	Fouls	13.2
51	Possession %	50
1.82	xG	2.11
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
FC Midtjylland	Metric	Lyngby
3.00 (better)	Goals scored	1.60
0.80 (better)	Goals conceded	2.80
1.38 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.98
	Big chances
4.00 (better)	Shots on target	3.67
10.50	Total shots	13.33 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.50	Corners	5.67 (better)
41.3	Possession %	54.0 (better)
311	Passes	510 (better)
	Tackles
11.75 (better)	Fouls	14.67
1.75	Offsides	1.33 (better)
	Throw-ins
0.75 (better)	Yellow cards	2.67
0.33	Red cards	0.33

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

FC Midtjylland wins: 1
Draws: 1
Lyngby wins: 0
Goals / game: 3.50
Over 2.5: 50%
Both score: 100%

FC Midtjylland v Lyngby3–22026-10-25
Lyngby v FC Midtjylland1–12026-08-16

Danish Superliga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	FC Copenhagen	14	10	2	2	+17	32	FC Copenhagen won 2 of the last 5
2	FC Midtjylland	14	9	5	0	+12	32	FC Midtjylland won 4 of the last 5
3	Viborg	14	8	2	4	+9	26	Viborg won 3 of the last 5
4	FC Nordsjaelland	14	6	5	3	+8	23	FC Nordsjaelland won 1 of the last 5
5	Brondby	14	7	1	6	+2	22	Brondby won 3 of the last 5
6	Odense	14	4	5	5	-3	17	Odense won 2 of the last 5
7	AC Horsens	14	4	4	6	0	16	AC Horsens won 1 of the last 5
8	Aarhus	14	3	6	5	-2	15	Aarhus won 3 of the last 5
9	Silkeborg	14	3	6	5	-6	15	Silkeborg won 1 of the last 5
10	Lyngby	14	2	5	7	-10	11	Lyngby won 1 of the last 5
11	Randers FC	14	3	2	9	-13	11	Randers FC won 0 of the last 5
12	Sonderjyske	14	2	3	9	-14	9	Sonderjyske won 1 of the last 5