FC Midtjylland v 
Ajax
Match statistics
| FC Midtjylland | Ajax | |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Shots | 24 |
| 4 | Shots on target | 11 |
| 1 | Corners | 8 |
| 10 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
| 1 | Offsides | 0 |
| 305 | Passes | 728 |
| 29% | Possession % | 71% |
| 1.68 | xG | 3.45 |
- Over 1.5
- 82%
- Over 2.5
- 60%
- Over 3.5
- 38%
- Both score
- 63%
- Model pick
- FC Midtjylland 42%
- Likely score
- 1-1 11%
- Expected goals
- 1.66 – 1.45
Advised bets
WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 4 of 5Ajax +0.25
Why this price?
Back Ajax +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 2.00 with Bet365 — Ajax starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.
Our model puts the chance at 52% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 55%; we judge it at 54%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.87. The offered 2.00 implies only 50%, so the price is 7.2% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.81 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: FC Midtjylland 1.66, Ajax 1.45.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | FC Midtjylland | 42.1% | 2.38 | 2.95 Dafabet | 33.9% | +8.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 24.7% | 4.04 | 3.90 Betano | 25.6% | -0.9 |
| Match result | Ajax | 33.2% | 3.01 | 2.45 Bet365 | 40.8% | -7.6 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 82.3% | 1.22 | 1.16 Betano | 86.2% | -4.0 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 17.7% | 5.64 | 6.50 Betfair | 15.4% | +2.4 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 60.2% | 1.66 | 1.50 Betano | 66.7% | -6.5 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 39.8% | 2.51 | 2.88 Betfair | 34.7% | +5.1 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 37.8% | 2.64 | 2.18 Betano | 45.9% | -8.1 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 62.2% | 1.61 | 1.73 Betfair | 57.8% | +4.4 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 62.6% | 1.60 | 1.44 William Hill | 69.4% | -6.8 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 37.4% | 2.67 | 2.88 Betfair | 34.7% | +2.7 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
FC Midtjylland favoured against Ajax
Our model makes FC Midtjylland 42% to win this UEFA Europa Conference League fixture, with the draw at 25% and Ajax at 33%. The goal projection is 1.66 for FC Midtjylland against 1.45 for Ajax — a slight edge to FC Midtjylland on expected output. A combined 3.11 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 60% and both teams to score at 63%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 11%
- 2-1 9%
- 1-2 8%
- 1-0 7%
- 2-2 6%
This season
| FC Midtjylland | Ajax | |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Played | 12 |
| 9-5-0 | W-D-L | 7-4-1 |
| 2.29 | Pts / game | 2.08 |
| 2.07 | Goals for / game | 2.67 |
| 1.21 | Goals against / game | 1.25 |
| 64% | Over 2.5 | 75% |
| 86% | BTTS | 75% |
| 14% | Clean sheets | 25% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 0% |
| 5-2-0 | Home record | 2-3-1 |
| 4-3-0 | Away record | 5-1-0 |
| D1 | Streak | D1 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. FC Midtjylland · Ajax
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 14.4 | Shots | 15.1 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.8 | Shots on target | 5.8 |
| 4.5 | Corners | 4.4 |
| 1.54 | Cards | 1.75 |
| 11.8 | Fouls | 10.5 |
| 46 | Possession % | 56 |
| 2.00 | xG | 1.77 |
| 8 matches | sample | 8 matches |
Conceded
| 16.6 | Shots | 14.6 |
|---|---|---|
| 6.1 | Shots on target | 4.4 |
| 4.4 | Corners | 5.9 |
| 1.88 | Cards | 2.17 |
| 12.6 | Fouls | 12.5 |
| 54 | Possession % | 44 |
| 1.89 | xG | 1.73 |
| 8 matches | sample | 8 matches |
Form comparison
| FC Midtjylland | Metric | Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| 1.60 | Goals scored | 2.20 (better) |
| 1.20 | Goals conceded | 1.20 |
| 1.84 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.82 |
| Big chances | ||
| 5.00 | Shots on target | 6.20 (better) |
| 14.20 | Total shots | 16.40 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 4.80 | Corners | 4.80 |
| 45.2 | Possession % | 56.2 (better) |
| 356 | Passes | 535 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 12.00 | Fouls | 10.60 (better) |
| 1.40 (better) | Offsides | 1.80 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.20 (better) | Yellow cards | 1.80 |
| 0.00 | Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- FC Midtjylland wins
- 0
- Draws
- 0
- Ajax wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 7.00
- Over 2.5
- 100%
- Both score
- 100%
- FC Midtjylland v Ajax1–62026-11-05
UEFA Europa Conference League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Lugano | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +7 | 9 | FC Lugano won 3 of the last 3 |
| 2 | Panathinaikos | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +6 | 9 | Panathinaikos won 3 of the last 3 |
| 3 | Twente | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +6 | 9 | Twente won 3 of the last 3 |
| 4 | Monaco | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +6 | 9 | Monaco won 3 of the last 3 |
| 5 | Brighton | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 7 | Brighton won 2 of the last 3 |
| 6 | Brann | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 7 | Brann won 2 of the last 3 |
| 7 | FC Copenhagen | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 7 | FC Copenhagen won 2 of the last 3 |
| 8 | Universitatea Craiova | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 7 | Universitatea Craiova won 2 of the last 3 |
| 9 | Mjallby AIF | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 7 | Mjallby AIF won 2 of the last 3 |
| 10 | St. Truiden | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 7 | St. Truiden won 2 of the last 3 |
| 11 | Ajax | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +6 | 6 | Ajax won 2 of the last 3 |
| 12 | Trabzonspor | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 6 | Trabzonspor won 2 of the last 3 |
| 13 | HNK Hajduk Split | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 6 | HNK Hajduk Split won 2 of the last 3 |
| 14 | SC Freiburg | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 6 | SC Freiburg won 2 of the last 3 |
| 15 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | FK Crvena Zvezda won 1 of the last 3 |
| 16 | Atalanta | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | Atalanta won 1 of the last 3 |
| 17 | SC Braga | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 | SC Braga won 1 of the last 3 |
| 18 | Gent | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 | Gent won 1 of the last 3 |
| 19 | FC Thun | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | FC Thun won 1 of the last 3 |
| 20 | Riga | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Riga won 0 of the last 3 |
| 21 | Borac Banja Luka | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 | Borac Banja Luka won 1 of the last 3 |
| 22 | Lincoln Red Imps FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 | Lincoln Red Imps FC won 1 of the last 3 |
| 23 | FK Jablonec | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 | FK Jablonec won 0 of the last 3 |
| 24 | Aarhus | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 | Aarhus won 0 of the last 3 |
| 25 | FC Nordsjaelland | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 | FC Nordsjaelland won 0 of the last 3 |
| 26 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë won 0 of the last 3 |
| 27 | Kairat Almaty | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -4 | 2 | Kairat Almaty won 0 of the last 3 |
| 28 | CSKA Sofia | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 | CSKA Sofia won 0 of the last 3 |
| 29 | FC Iberia 1999 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 | FC Iberia 1999 won 0 of the last 3 |
| 30 | Getafe | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 | Getafe won 0 of the last 3 |
| 31 | Pafos | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 | Pafos won 0 of the last 3 |
| 32 | Heart Of Midlothian | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 | Heart Of Midlothian won 0 of the last 3 |
| 33 | KuPS | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 | KuPS won 0 of the last 3 |
| 34 | FC Midtjylland | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 | FC Midtjylland won 0 of the last 3 |
| 35 | Inter Club d'Escaldes | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 0 | Inter Club d'Escaldes won 0 of the last 3 |
| 36 | Kauno Žalgiris | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 0 | Kauno Žalgiris won 0 of the last 3 |