No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
FC Eindhoven
39.3%
2.54
2.90 Betano
34.5%
+4.8
Match result
Draw
25.6%
3.90
3.85 Dafabet
26.0%
-0.4
Match result
FC Volendam
35.1%
2.85
2.55 Betano
39.2%
-4.1
Total goals
Over 1.5
80.0%
1.25
1.18 Betano
84.7%
-4.8
Total goals
Under 1.5
20.0%
5.00
5.50 Bet365
18.2%
+1.8
Total goals
Over 2.5
56.7%
1.76
1.57 Bet365
63.7%
-7.0
Total goals
Under 2.5
43.3%
2.31
2.40 Bet365
41.7%
+1.6
Total goals
Over 3.5
34.3%
2.92
2.40 Betfair
41.7%
-7.4
Total goals
Under 3.5
65.7%
1.52
1.57 Bet365
63.7%
+2.0
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
60.1%
1.66
1.50 William Hill
66.7%
-6.6
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
39.9%
2.51
2.63 Betfair
38.0%
+1.9
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
FC Eindhoven v FC Volendam: too close to call
Our model makes FC Eindhoven 39% to win this KNVB Beker fixture, with the draw at 26% and FC Volendam at 35%. The goal projection is 1.53 for FC Eindhoven against 1.43 for FC Volendam — almost nothing to FC Eindhoven on expected output. A combined 2.96 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 57% and both teams to score at 60%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
FC Eindhoven
Metric
FC Volendam
1.40
Goals scored
1.40
2.20
Goals conceded
1.60 (better)
0.78
Expected goals (xG)
0.98 (better)
—
Big chances *
—
4.40 (better)
Shots on target
3.00
11.00 (better)
Total shots
10.00
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
3.60
Corners
3.60
47.2
Possession %
52.8 (better)
398
Passes
460 (better)
—
Tackles
—
13.80
Fouls
10.80 (better)
1.60
Offsides
1.20 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.00
Yellow cards
1.80 (better)
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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FC Eindhoven v 
FC Volendam