FC Copenhagen v Odense

1st1–16th

18:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
FC Copenhagen		Odense
22	Shots	7
10	Shots on target	2
4	Corners	2
5	Fouls	17
0	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
3	Offsides	0
674	Passes	313
68%	Possession %	32%
2.46	xG	0.47

Over 1.5: 85%
Over 2.5: 65%
Over 3.5: 43%
Both score: 58%

Model pick: FC Copenhagen 67%
Likely score: 2-0 10%
Expected goals: 2.37 – 0.99

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

FC Copenhagen -0.5

1.42Betano · fair 1.30 · qualifies at 1.34+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back FC Copenhagen -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 1.42 with Betano — FC Copenhagen must win by more than 0.5 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 67% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 84%; we judge it at 77%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.30. The offered 1.42 implies only 70%, so the price is 9.5% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: FC Copenhagen 2.37, Odense 0.99.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	FC Copenhagen	67.4%	1.48	1.45 Bet365	69.0%	-1.5
Match result	Draw	18.7%	5.34	5.20 Betano	19.2%	-0.5
Match result	Odense	13.9%	7.22	7.60 Betano	13.2%	+0.7
Total goals	Over 1.5	85.3%	1.17	1.18 Betano	84.7%	+0.5
Total goals	Under 1.5	14.7%	6.79	5.50 Bet365	18.2%	-3.4
Total goals	Over 2.5	65.3%	1.53	1.57 Bet365	63.7%	+1.6
Total goals	Under 2.5	34.7%	2.88	2.55 Betfair	39.2%	-4.5
Total goals	Over 3.5	43.3%	2.31	2.45 Betfair	40.8%	+2.5
Total goals	Under 3.5	56.7%	1.76	1.62 Bet365	61.7%	-5.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	57.5%	1.74	1.75 Bet365	57.1%	+0.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	42.5%	2.35	2.20 Betfair	45.5%	-3.0

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

FC Copenhagen favoured against Odense

Our model makes FC Copenhagen 67% to win this Danish Superliga fixture, with the draw at 19% and Odense at 14%. The goal projection is 2.37 for FC Copenhagen against 0.99 for Odense — a commanding edge to FC Copenhagen on expected output. A combined 3.36 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 65% and both teams to score at 58%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. FC Copenhagen is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 33% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 2-0 10%; 2-1 10%; 1-1 9%; 1-0 8%; 3-0 8%

This season

Season records for FC Copenhagen and Odense
FC Copenhagen		Odense
14	Played	14
10-2-2	W-D-L	4-5-5
2.29	Pts / game	1.21
2.07	Goals for / game	1.14
0.86	Goals against / game	1.36
50%	Over 2.5	50%
43%	BTTS	64%
50%	Clean sheets	14%
7%	Failed to score	29%
5-2-0	Home record	3-1-3
5-0-2	Away record	1-4-2
W2	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. FC Copenhagen · Odense

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
17.3	Shots	13.0
5.0	Shots on target	4.6
5.3	Corners	3.8
1.33	Cards	1.20
11.8	Fouls	12.0
59	Possession %	45
1.76	xG	1.02
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
6.2	Shots	15.8
1.8	Shots on target	5.2
1.8	Corners	7.0
1.67	Cards	1.60
11.2	Fouls	8.6
41	Possession %	55
0.69	xG	1.85
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
FC Copenhagen	Metric	Odense
1.20	Goals scored	1.80 (better)
1.00 (better)	Goals conceded	1.60
1.88 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.81
	Big chances
4.25	Shots on target	4.25
15.50	Total shots	15.75 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
5.00	Corners	6.25 (better)
50.8	Possession %	51.3 (better)
441	Passes	499 (better)
	Tackles
15.50	Fouls	12.50 (better)
1.75 (better)	Offsides	2.25
	Throw-ins
2.00	Yellow cards	1.50 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

FC Copenhagen wins: 2
Draws: 3
Odense wins: 1
Goals / game: 3.17
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 83%

FC Copenhagen v Odense1–12026-10-26
Odense v FC Copenhagen0–52026-09-06
FC Copenhagen v Odense2–12026-04-22
Odense v FC Copenhagen2–12026-03-15
Odense v FC Copenhagen2–22026-02-21
FC Copenhagen v Odense1–12025-08-23

Danish Superliga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	FC Copenhagen	14	10	2	2	+17	32	FC Copenhagen won 2 of the last 5
2	FC Midtjylland	14	9	5	0	+12	32	FC Midtjylland won 4 of the last 5
3	Viborg	14	8	2	4	+9	26	Viborg won 3 of the last 5
4	FC Nordsjaelland	14	6	5	3	+8	23	FC Nordsjaelland won 1 of the last 5
5	Brondby	14	7	1	6	+2	22	Brondby won 3 of the last 5
6	Odense	14	4	5	5	-3	17	Odense won 2 of the last 5
7	AC Horsens	14	4	4	6	0	16	AC Horsens won 1 of the last 5
8	Aarhus	14	3	6	5	-2	15	Aarhus won 3 of the last 5
9	Silkeborg	14	3	6	5	-6	15	Silkeborg won 1 of the last 5
10	Lyngby	14	2	5	7	-10	11	Lyngby won 1 of the last 5
11	Randers FC	14	3	2	9	-13	11	Randers FC won 0 of the last 5
12	Sonderjyske	14	2	3	9	-14	9	Sonderjyske won 1 of the last 5