FC Copenhagen v Aarhus

1st1–18th

16:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
FC Copenhagen		Aarhus
24	Shots	7
7	Shots on target	3
11	Corners	1
17	Fouls	6
1	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	0
456	Passes	450
51%	Possession %	49%
2.01	xG	0.94

Over 1.5: 88%
Over 2.5: 70%
Over 3.5: 49%
Both score: 67%

Model pick: FC Copenhagen 57%
Likely score: 2-1 9%
Expected goals: 2.25 – 1.37

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

FC Copenhagen -0.5

1.67Betano · fair 1.51 · qualifies at 1.55+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back FC Copenhagen -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 1.67 with Betano — FC Copenhagen must win by more than 0.5 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 57% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 73%; we judge it at 66%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.51. The offered 1.67 implies only 60%, so the price is 10.9% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: FC Copenhagen 2.25, Aarhus 1.37.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Total goals	Under 2.5	29.9%	3.35	2.40 Betano	41.7%	-11.8
Total goals	Over 3.5	49.0%	2.04	2.60 BetVictor	38.5%	+10.5
Match result	FC Copenhagen	56.9%	1.76	1.70 Betano	58.8%	-1.9
Match result	Draw	20.9%	4.78	4.20 Betfair	23.8%	-2.9
Match result	Aarhus	22.2%	4.51	5.25 Bet365	19.0%	+3.1
Total goals	Over 1.5	88.1%	1.13	1.20 Betano	83.3%	+4.8
Total goals	Under 1.5	11.9%	8.44	5.00 Bet365	20.0%	-8.1
Total goals	Over 2.5	70.1%	1.43	1.62 Bet365	61.7%	+8.4
Total goals	Under 3.5	51.0%	1.96	1.55 Betano	64.5%	-13.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	67.2%	1.49	1.70 Bet365	58.8%	+8.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	32.8%	3.05	2.25 BetVictor	44.4%	-11.7

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

FC Copenhagen favoured against Aarhus

Our model makes FC Copenhagen 57% to win this Danish Superliga fixture, with the draw at 21% and Aarhus at 22%. The goal projection is 2.25 for FC Copenhagen against 1.37 for Aarhus — a substantial edge to FC Copenhagen on expected output. A combined 3.62 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 70% and both teams to score at 67%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 2-1 9%; 1-1 9%; 3-1 7%; 2-0 7%; 2-2 6%

This season

Season records for FC Copenhagen and Aarhus
FC Copenhagen		Aarhus
14	Played	14
10-2-2	W-D-L	3-6-5
2.29	Pts / game	1.07
2.07	Goals for / game	1.36
0.86	Goals against / game	1.50
50%	Over 2.5	57%
43%	BTTS	64%
50%	Clean sheets	14%
7%	Failed to score	21%
5-2-0	Home record	3-3-1
5-0-2	Away record	0-3-4
W2	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. FC Copenhagen · Aarhus

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
17.3	Shots	13.7
5.0	Shots on target	3.5
5.3	Corners	4.5
1.33	Cards	1.33
11.8	Fouls	9.7
59	Possession %	52
1.76	xG	1.50
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
6.2	Shots	16.0
1.8	Shots on target	4.8
1.8	Corners	6.0
1.67	Cards	2.17
11.2	Fouls	16.8
41	Possession %	48
0.69	xG	1.47
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
FC Copenhagen	Metric	Aarhus
2.20	Goals scored	2.40 (better)
0.40 (better)	Goals conceded	1.60
2.55 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.40
	Big chances
5.00 (better)	Shots on target	3.67
13.33	Total shots	14.00 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.33	Corners	4.67 (better)
47.3	Possession %	52.3 (better)
442	Passes	506 (better)
	Tackles
9.00	Fouls	8.67 (better)
3.00	Offsides	0.33 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.67	Yellow cards	1.67
0.00	Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

FC Copenhagen wins: 0
Draws: 1
Aarhus wins: 2
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 67%

FC Copenhagen v Aarhus1–12026-10-18
Aarhus v FC Copenhagen2–02025-11-30
FC Copenhagen v Aarhus2–32025-08-08

Danish Superliga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	FC Copenhagen	14	10	2	2	+17	32	FC Copenhagen won 2 of the last 5
2	FC Midtjylland	14	9	5	0	+12	32	FC Midtjylland won 4 of the last 5
3	Viborg	14	8	2	4	+9	26	Viborg won 3 of the last 5
4	FC Nordsjaelland	14	6	5	3	+8	23	FC Nordsjaelland won 1 of the last 5
5	Brondby	14	7	1	6	+2	22	Brondby won 3 of the last 5
6	Odense	14	4	5	5	-3	17	Odense won 2 of the last 5
7	AC Horsens	14	4	4	6	0	16	AC Horsens won 1 of the last 5
8	Aarhus	14	3	6	5	-2	15	Aarhus won 3 of the last 5
9	Silkeborg	14	3	6	5	-6	15	Silkeborg won 1 of the last 5
10	Lyngby	14	2	5	7	-10	11	Lyngby won 1 of the last 5
11	Randers FC	14	3	2	9	-13	11	Randers FC won 0 of the last 5
12	Sonderjyske	14	2	3	9	-14	9	Sonderjyske won 1 of the last 5