FC Botosani won 1 of the last 5DLLLW12th1–3Petrolul Ploiesti won 2 of the last 5WDWDL4th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
FC Botosani
Petrolul Ploiesti
12
Shots
10
6
Shots on target
4
3
Corners
0
19
Fouls
12
3
Yellow cards
3
1
Red cards
1
2
Offsides
1
436
Passes
340
56%
Possession %
44%
1.31
xG
1.36
48%
27%
25%
1 · FC BotosaniXPetrolul Ploiesti · 2
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
24%
Both score
50%
Model pick
FC Botosani 48%
Likely score
1-1 13%
Expected goals
1.50 – 1.01
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Total goals
Under 2.5
54.3%
1.84
2.20 Betfair
45.5%
+8.9
Total goals
Over 3.5
24.3%
4.12
3.50 BetVictor
28.6%
-4.3
Total goals
Under 3.5
75.7%
1.32
1.47 Betano
68.0%
+7.7
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
49.8%
2.01
1.80 Betano
55.6%
-5.7
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
50.2%
1.99
2.38 Betfair
42.0%
+8.2
Match result
FC Botosani
47.9%
2.09
2.08 Dafabet
48.1%
-0.2
Match result
Draw
27.3%
3.67
3.75 Betano
26.7%
+0.6
Match result
Petrolul Ploiesti
24.8%
4.03
3.90 William Hill
25.6%
-0.8
Total goals
Over 1.5
71.9%
1.39
1.29 BetVictor
77.5%
-5.6
Total goals
Under 1.5
28.1%
3.56
4.50 Betfair
22.2%
+5.9
Total goals
Over 2.5
45.7%
2.19
1.80 Bet365
55.6%
-9.9
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
FC Botosani favoured against Petrolul Ploiesti
Our model makes FC Botosani 48% to win this Romanian Liga I fixture, with the draw at 27% and Petrolul Ploiesti at 25%. The goal projection is 1.50 for FC Botosani against 1.01 for Petrolul Ploiesti — a clear edge to FC Botosani on expected output. A combined 2.50 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 46% and both teams to score at 50%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 13%
1-0 12%
2-1 9%
2-0 9%
0-0 9%
This season
Season records for FC Botosani and Petrolul Ploiesti
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
FC Botosani
Metric
Petrolul Ploiesti
1.80 (better)
Goals scored
1.60
1.20 (better)
Goals conceded
1.60
2.04 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
1.50
—
Big chances *
—
4.40
Shots on target
5.67 (better)
11.00
Total shots
15.00 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
4.00 (better)
Corners
3.67
52.6 (better)
Possession %
52.0
433 (better)
Passes
377
—
Tackles
—
10.00 (better)
Fouls
10.33
1.00 (better)
Offsides
1.33
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.00
Yellow cards
1.00 (better)
0.75
Red cards
0.00 (better)
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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FC Botosani v 
Petrolul Ploiesti