FC Anyang won 2 of the last 5LWDDW8th2–1Bucheon FC 1995 won 0 of the last 5DLLLL11th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
FC Anyang
Bucheon FC 1995
15
Shots
8
8
Shots on target
4
4
Corners
1
—
Fouls
—
1
Yellow cards
2
0
Red cards
0
0
Offsides
0
—
Passes
—
59%
Possession %
41%
—
xG
—
41%
27%
32%
1 · FC AnyangXBucheon FC 1995 · 2
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
29%
Both score
55%
Model pick
FC Anyang 41%
Likely score
1-1 13%
Expected goals
1.46 – 1.25
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
FC Anyang
41.2%
2.43
1.96 Dafabet
51.0%
-9.8
Total goals
Over 1.5
75.9%
1.32
1.29 Betano
77.5%
-1.6
Total goals
Over 3.5
28.8%
3.48
3.25 Bet365
30.8%
-2.0
Match result
Draw
26.8%
3.73
3.55 Dafabet
28.2%
-1.3
Match result
Bucheon FC 1995
32.0%
3.13
4.05 Betano
24.7%
+7.3
Total goals
Under 1.5
24.1%
4.15
3.75 Bet365
26.7%
-2.6
Total goals
Over 2.5
50.8%
1.97
1.90 Bet365
52.6%
-1.8
Total goals
Under 2.5
49.2%
2.03
1.90 Bet365
52.6%
-3.5
Total goals
Under 3.5
71.2%
1.40
1.35 Betano
74.1%
-2.8
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
55.4%
1.81
1.75 William Hill
57.1%
-1.8
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
44.6%
2.24
2.05 Betfair
48.8%
-4.2
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
FC Anyang favoured against Bucheon FC 1995
Our model makes FC Anyang 41% to win this K League 1 fixture, with the draw at 27% and Bucheon FC 1995 at 32%. The goal projection is 1.46 for FC Anyang against 1.25 for Bucheon FC 1995 — a slight edge to FC Anyang on expected output. A combined 2.71 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
FC Anyang
Metric
Bucheon FC 1995
1.00 (better)
Goals scored
0.60
0.60 (better)
Goals conceded
2.20
—
Expected goals (xG)
0.79
—
Big chances *
—
5.33 (better)
Shots on target
3.50
13.33 (better)
Total shots
10.00
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
3.00
Corners
5.00 (better)
47.0 (better)
Possession %
41.5
361
Passes
364 (better)
—
Tackles
—
13.00
Fouls
8.75 (better)
1.33
Offsides
1.00 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.33
Yellow cards
2.00 (better)
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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FC Anyang v 
Bucheon FC 1995