FC Andorra v Burgos

19th2–33rd

19:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
FC Andorra		Burgos
20	Shots	13
11	Shots on target	7
7	Corners	3
14	Fouls	10
1	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	2
621	Passes	219
73%	Possession %	27%
1.78	xG	1.56

Over 1.5: 68%
Over 2.5: 41%
Over 3.5: 20%
Both score: 48%

Model pick: FC Andorra 36%
Likely score: 1-1 14%
Expected goals: 1.17 – 1.15

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	FC Andorra	35.7%	2.80	2.12 Betano	47.2%	-11.4
Match result	Draw	29.6%	3.38	3.45 Betano	29.0%	+0.6
Match result	Burgos	34.7%	2.88	—	—	—
Total goals	Over 1.5	67.9%	1.47	1.34 Betano	74.6%	-6.7
Total goals	Under 1.5	32.1%	3.12	3.40 Bet365	29.4%	+2.7
Total goals	Over 2.5	40.8%	2.45	2.05 Bet365	48.8%	-8.0
Total goals	Under 2.5	59.2%	1.69	1.83 Betano	54.6%	+4.5
Total goals	Over 3.5	20.4%	4.91	3.60 BetVictor	27.8%	-7.4
Total goals	Under 3.5	79.6%	1.26	1.32 Betano	75.8%	+3.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	47.7%	2.10	1.83 Bet365	54.6%	-7.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	52.3%	1.91	1.95 William Hill	51.3%	+1.0

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

FC Andorra v Burgos: too close to call

Our model makes FC Andorra 36% to win this Segunda División fixture, with the draw at 30% and Burgos at 35%. The goal projection is 1.17 for FC Andorra against 1.15 for Burgos — almost nothing to FC Andorra on expected output. A combined 2.31 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 41% and both teams to score at 48%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 14%; 1-0 11%; 0-1 11%; 0-0 11%; 2-1 8%

This season

Season records for FC Andorra and Burgos
FC Andorra		Burgos
12	Played	13
3-2-7	W-D-L	7-3-3
0.92	Pts / game	1.85
1.42	Goals for / game	1.46
1.83	Goals against / game	1.08
58%	Over 2.5	54%
58%	BTTS	62%
17%	Clean sheets	23%
33%	Failed to score	23%
2-0-4	Home record	5-2-1
1-2-3	Away record	2-1-2
D1	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. FC Andorra · Burgos

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
10.5	Shots	12.6
5.2	Shots on target	4.9
4.0	Corners	4.6
4.50	Cards	2.50
17.3	Fouls	13.4
57	Possession %	46
1.67	xG	1.53
6 matches	sample	8 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
13.8	Shots	11.9
4.0	Shots on target	4.1
6.2	Corners	4.3
2.00	Cards	2.39
9.7	Fouls	13.9
43	Possession %	54
1.25	xG	0.99
6 matches	sample	8 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
FC Andorra	Metric	Burgos
1.00	Goals scored	1.00
1.40	Goals conceded	0.80 (better)
1.52 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.27
	Big chances
4.00	Shots on target	4.20 (better)
9.00	Total shots	11.80 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.60	Corners	4.60
51.0 (better)	Possession %	48.6
419 (better)	Passes	391
	Tackles
18.60	Fouls	14.00 (better)
3.00 (better)	Offsides	3.50
	Throw-ins
4.00	Yellow cards	3.00 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

FC Andorra wins: 1
Draws: 0
Burgos wins: 2
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 67%

FC Andorra v Burgos2–32026-10-26
Burgos v FC Andorra1–02026-05-31
FC Andorra v Burgos2–12025-08-31

Segunda División table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Almeria	13	9	2	2	+14	29	Almeria won 3 of the last 5
2	Castellón	12	8	3	1	+18	27	Castellón won 2 of the last 5
3	Burgos	13	7	3	3	+5	24	Burgos won 3 of the last 5
4	Eibar	12	7	2	3	+7	23	Eibar won 1 of the last 5
5	Granada CF	12	7	2	3	+6	23	Granada CF won 5 of the last 5
6	Mallorca	12	6	4	2	+8	22	Mallorca won 2 of the last 5
7	Sporting Gijon	13	7	1	5	-1	22	Sporting Gijon won 3 of the last 5
8	Girona	13	6	3	4	+10	21	Girona won 2 of the last 5
9	Oviedo	13	6	3	4	+3	21	Oviedo won 3 of the last 5
10	Las Palmas	13	6	2	5	-2	20	Las Palmas won 3 of the last 5
11	Cordoba	13	6	1	6	0	19	Cordoba won 3 of the last 5
12	Valladolid	13	5	3	5	+2	18	Valladolid won 3 of the last 5
13	Sabadell	13	4	6	3	+1	18	Sabadell won 1 of the last 5
14	Tenerife	12	3	6	3	-2	15	Tenerife won 0 of the last 5
15	Eldense	13	4	2	7	-6	14	Eldense won 2 of the last 5
16	Celta de Vigo II	13	3	4	6	-6	13	Celta de Vigo II won 1 of the last 5
17	Real Sociedad II	13	3	3	7	-7	12	Real Sociedad II won 1 of the last 5
18	Leganes	13	3	3	7	-12	12	Leganes won 0 of the last 5
19	FC Andorra	12	3	2	7	-5	11	FC Andorra won 1 of the last 5
20	Cadiz	13	2	4	7	-2	10	Cadiz won 1 of the last 5
21	Albacete	13	3	1	9	-11	10	Albacete won 3 of the last 5
22	AD Ceuta FC	13	1	2	10	-20	5	AD Ceuta FC won 0 of the last 5