Predicted Edge

Fazendense v Estrela

Fazendense won 2 of the last 31–2Estrela won 0 of the last 512th
Over 1.5
91%
Over 2.5
76%
Over 3.5
56%
Both score
72%
Model pick
Fazendense 56%
Likely score
2-1 9%
Expected goals
2.42 – 1.56

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultFazendense56.2%1.7829.00 William Hill3.4%+52.7
Match resultDraw20.0%5.009.00 Bet36511.1%+8.9
Match resultEstrela23.8%4.201.10 William Hill90.9%-67.1
Total goalsOver 1.591.1%1.101.10 Bet36590.9%+0.2
Total goalsUnder 1.58.9%11.287.00 Bet36514.3%-5.4
Total goalsOver 2.575.9%1.321.36 Bet36573.5%+2.4
Total goalsUnder 2.524.1%4.153.13 BetVictor31.9%-7.9
Total goalsOver 3.556.3%1.782.10 Bet36547.6%+8.7
Total goalsUnder 3.543.7%2.29———
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes72.4%1.383.00 William Hill33.3%+39.1
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No27.6%3.631.55 BetVictor64.5%-36.9

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Fazendense favoured against Estrela

Our model makes Fazendense 56% to win this Taça de Portugal fixture, with the draw at 20% and Estrela at 24%. The goal projection is 2.42 for Fazendense against 1.56 for Estrela — a substantial edge to Fazendense on expected output. A combined 3.98 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 76% and both teams to score at 72%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
2-1 9%
1-1 7%
3-1 7%
2-2 7%
1-2 6%

This season

Season records for Fazendense and Estrela
Fazendense Estrela
3Played11
2-0-1W-D-L2-4-5
2.00Pts / game0.91
2.67Goals for / game1.55
1.00Goals against / game2.00
67%Over 2.573%
67%BTTS73%
33%Clean sheets0%
0%Failed to score27%
2-0-1Home record1-2-3
0-0-0Away record1-2-2
L1StreakL5

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Fazendense · Estrela

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
—Shots12.6
—Shots on target2.6
—Corners4.4
—Cards1.60
—Fouls12.0
—Possession %54
—xG1.32
—sample5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
—Shots10.2
—Shots on target4.0
—Corners5.0
—Cards2.00
—Fouls11.2
—Possession %46
—xG0.80
—sample5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
FazendenseMetricEstrela
1.80Goals scored2.00 (better)
2.00Goals conceded2.00
Expected goals (xG)0.94
Big chances
Shots on target4.20
Total shots14.80
Touches in opp. box
Corners4.60
Possession %49.6
Passes394
Tackles
Fouls10.80
Offsides1.00
Throw-ins
Yellow cards2.20
Red cards0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Fazendense wins
0
Draws
0
Estrela wins
1
Goals / game
3.00
Over 2.5
100%
Both score
100%