Predicted Edge

Fátima v Academico Viseu

Fátima won 3 of the last 31–0Academico Viseu won 4 of the last 56th
Over 1.5
85%
Over 2.5
65%
Over 3.5
43%
Both score
67%
Model pick
Fátima 40%
Likely score
1-1 10%
Expected goals
1.72 – 1.64

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultFátima39.6%2.527.50 Bet36513.3%+26.3
Match resultDraw24.0%4.175.00 BetVictor20.0%+4.0
Match resultAcademico Viseu36.4%2.751.36 William Hill73.5%-37.1
Total goalsOver 1.585.4%1.171.22 BetVictor82.0%+3.4
Total goalsUnder 1.514.6%6.864.33 Bet36523.1%-8.5
Total goalsOver 2.565.2%1.531.69 BetVictor59.2%+6.0
Total goalsUnder 2.534.8%2.872.15 Bet36546.5%-11.7
Total goalsOver 3.543.2%2.312.88 BetVictor34.7%+8.5
Total goalsUnder 3.556.8%1.761.44 Bet36569.4%-12.7
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes66.7%1.501.91 Bet36552.4%+14.4
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No33.3%3.001.85 William Hill54.1%-20.8

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Fátima v Academico Viseu: too close to call

Our model makes Fátima 40% to win this Taça de Portugal fixture, with the draw at 24% and Academico Viseu at 36%. The goal projection is 1.72 for Fátima against 1.64 for Academico Viseu — almost nothing to Fátima on expected output. A combined 3.36 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 65% and both teams to score at 67%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
1-1 10%
2-1 8%
1-2 8%
2-2 7%
1-0 5%

This season

Season records for Fátima and Academico Viseu
Fátima Academico Viseu
3Played11
3-0-0W-D-L6-2-3
3.00Pts / game1.82
2.67Goals for / game1.36
0.67Goals against / game1.18
67%Over 2.564%
67%BTTS55%
33%Clean sheets18%
0%Failed to score27%
3-0-0Home record3-0-2
0-0-0Away record3-2-1
W3StreakL1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Fátima · Academico Viseu

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
—Shots11.2
—Shots on target4.8
—Corners3.0
—Cards3.00
—Fouls12.2
—Possession %43
—xG0.81
—sample5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
—Shots18.0
—Shots on target5.2
—Corners6.6
—Cards2.20
—Fouls10.6
—Possession %57
—xG1.45
—sample5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
FátimaMetricAcademico Viseu
2.40 (better)Goals scored1.40
1.20Goals conceded1.00 (better)
Expected goals (xG)0.94
Big chances
Shots on target3.20
Total shots9.80
Touches in opp. box
Corners2.20
Possession %46.8
Passes403
Tackles
Fouls15.00
Offsides1.25
Throw-ins
Yellow cards3.00
Red cards0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Fátima wins
1
Draws
0
Academico Viseu wins
0
Goals / game
1.00
Over 2.5
0%
Both score
0%