Farul Constanta v Oţelul

6th4–314th

14:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Farul Constanta		Oţelul
10	Shots	21
4	Shots on target	8
2	Corners	7
8	Fouls	12
2	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
0	Offsides	1
321	Passes	594
35%	Possession %	65%
1.23	xG	1.28

Over 1.5: 78%
Over 2.5: 54%
Over 3.5: 31%
Both score: 56%

Model pick: Farul Constanta 49%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.68 – 1.15

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Farul Constanta	49.3%	2.03	2.02 Dafabet	49.5%	-0.2
Match result	Draw	25.3%	3.96	3.60 Betfair	27.8%	-2.5
Match result	Oţelul	25.4%	3.93	3.90 Betano	25.6%	-0.2
Total goals	Over 1.5	78.0%	1.28	1.29 Betano	77.5%	+0.4
Total goals	Under 1.5	22.0%	4.54	3.75 Bet365	26.7%	-4.6
Total goals	Over 2.5	53.8%	1.86	1.95 Bet365	51.3%	+2.5
Total goals	Under 2.5	46.2%	2.16	2.00 Bet365	50.0%	-3.8
Total goals	Over 3.5	31.5%	3.18	3.40 Bet365	29.4%	+2.1
Total goals	Under 3.5	68.5%	1.46	1.38 Betano	72.5%	-3.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	56.1%	1.78	1.82 Betano	54.9%	+1.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	43.9%	2.28	2.10 Bet365	47.6%	-3.7

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Farul Constanta favoured against Oţelul

Our model makes Farul Constanta 49% to win this Romanian Liga I fixture, with the draw at 25% and Oţelul at 25%. The goal projection is 1.68 for Farul Constanta against 1.15 for Oţelul — a substantial edge to Farul Constanta on expected output. A combined 2.83 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 54% and both teams to score at 56%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 2-1 10%; 1-0 9%; 2-0 8%; 1-2 7%

This season

Season records for Farul Constanta and Oţelul
Farul Constanta		Oţelul
15	Played	14
6-6-3	W-D-L	2-6-6
1.60	Pts / game	0.86
1.60	Goals for / game	1.14
1.47	Goals against / game	1.57
53%	Over 2.5	43%
67%	BTTS	64%
20%	Clean sheets	7%
27%	Failed to score	29%
5-2-0	Home record	2-4-2
1-4-3	Away record	0-2-4
D1	Streak	D1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Farul Constanta · Oţelul

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
11.2	Shots	20.0
4.3	Shots on target	6.0
3.8	Corners	6.8
1.25	Cards	2.73
7.5	Fouls	11.0
44	Possession %	55
1.08	xG	1.70
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
19.5	Shots	14.0
6.7	Shots on target	4.8
5.7	Corners	4.2
1.67	Cards	3.27
10.0	Fouls	13.0
56	Possession %	45
1.70	xG	1.59
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Farul Constanta	Metric	Oţelul
1.80 (better)	Goals scored	0.80
1.60 (better)	Goals conceded	1.80
1.63 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.40
	Big chances
6.75 (better)	Shots on target	5.50
13.50	Total shots	17.50 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.25	Corners	6.25 (better)
52.0 (better)	Possession %	49.8
504 (better)	Passes	405
	Tackles
7.00 (better)	Fouls	11.50
1.25	Offsides	1.00 (better)
	Throw-ins
0.50 (better)	Yellow cards	2.75
0.50	Red cards	0.50

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Farul Constanta wins: 2
Draws: 1
Oţelul wins: 1
Goals / game: 5.25
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Romanian Liga I table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Dinamo Bucuresti	15	10	3	2	+21	33	Dinamo Bucuresti won 3 of the last 5
2	Universitatea Craiova	14	10	2	2	+24	32	Universitatea Craiova won 5 of the last 5
3	Rapid	15	9	4	2	+10	31	Rapid won 3 of the last 5
4	Petrolul Ploiesti	15	8	3	4	+2	27	Petrolul Ploiesti won 2 of the last 5
5	Universitatea Cluj	15	8	2	5	+6	26	Universitatea Cluj won 2 of the last 5
6	Farul Constanta	15	6	6	3	+2	24	Farul Constanta won 3 of the last 5
7	Corvinul Hunedoara	15	6	4	5	+1	22	Corvinul Hunedoara won 3 of the last 5
8	FCSB	15	6	3	6	-1	21	FCSB won 3 of the last 5
9	CFR 1907 Cluj	14	5	3	6	-1	18	CFR 1907 Cluj won 1 of the last 5
10	Uta Arad	15	5	3	7	-4	18	Uta Arad won 2 of the last 5
11	Arges Pitesti	15	4	3	8	-7	15	Arges Pitesti won 1 of the last 5
12	Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe	14	3	6	5	-10	15	Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe won 0 of the last 5
13	FC Botosani	14	3	5	6	-1	14	FC Botosani won 1 of the last 5
14	Oţelul	14	2	6	6	-6	12	Oţelul won 0 of the last 5
15	FC Voluntari	14	2	2	10	-17	8	FC Voluntari won 0 of the last 5
16	Csikszereda	15	1	3	11	-19	6	Csikszereda won 1 of the last 5