Fagiano Okayama v Vissel Kobe

10th0–35th

04:55 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Fagiano Okayama		Vissel Kobe
14	Shots	21
4	Shots on target	8
10	Corners	8
12	Fouls	7
4	Yellow cards	0
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	3
308	Passes	405
44%	Possession %	56%
1.20	xG	1.66

Over 1.5: 76%
Over 2.5: 51%
Over 3.5: 28%
Both score: 55%

Model pick: Vissel Kobe 44%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.18 – 1.51

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Fagiano Okayama	29.0%	3.44	2.95 Dafabet	33.9%	-4.9
Match result	Draw	26.6%	3.75	3.40 Dafabet	29.4%	-2.8
Match result	Vissel Kobe	44.3%	2.25	2.55 BetVictor	39.2%	+5.1
Total goals	Over 1.5	75.6%	1.32	1.38 Betano	72.5%	+3.2
Total goals	Under 1.5	24.4%	4.11	3.05 Betano	32.8%	-8.4
Total goals	Over 2.5	50.5%	1.98	2.12 Betano	47.2%	+3.3
Total goals	Under 2.5	49.5%	2.02	1.75 Betano	57.1%	-7.7
Total goals	Over 3.5	28.5%	3.51	3.90 BetVictor	25.6%	+2.8
Total goals	Under 3.5	71.5%	1.40	1.26 Betano	79.4%	-7.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	54.7%	1.83	1.91 Bet365	52.4%	+2.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	45.3%	2.21	1.95 William Hill	51.3%	-5.9

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Vissel Kobe favoured against Fagiano Okayama

Our model makes Fagiano Okayama 29% to win this J1 League fixture, with the draw at 27% and Vissel Kobe at 44%. The goal projection is 1.18 for Fagiano Okayama against 1.51 for Vissel Kobe — a clear edge to Vissel Kobe on expected output. A combined 2.70 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 0-1 10%; 1-2 9%; 0-2 8%; 1-0 7%

This season

Season records for Fagiano Okayama and Vissel Kobe
Fagiano Okayama		Vissel Kobe
14	Played	14
5-2-7	W-D-L	8-3-3
1.21	Pts / game	1.93
1.14	Goals for / game	1.64
1.57	Goals against / game	1.00
71%	Over 2.5	57%
64%	BTTS	50%
21%	Clean sheets	43%
21%	Failed to score	14%
3-1-3	Home record	4-3-0
2-1-4	Away record	4-0-3
D1	Streak	D1

2027/28 league matches only, computed from results on record. Fagiano Okayama · Vissel Kobe

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
13.8	Shots	15.7
3.8	Shots on target	5.3
6.5	Corners	5.0
2.00	Cards	0.50
11.8	Fouls	6.3
46	Possession %	52
1.16	xG	1.57
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
12.5	Shots	16.5
4.8	Shots on target	6.2
4.7	Corners	5.5
1.00	Cards	1.50
9.8	Fouls	10.8
54	Possession %	49
1.47	xG	1.65
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Fagiano Okayama	Metric	Vissel Kobe
1.20	Goals scored	1.60 (better)
1.00 (better)	Goals conceded	1.20
1.15	Expected goals (xG)	1.51 (better)
	Big chances
2.00	Shots on target	5.00 (better)
8.33	Total shots	15.00 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
6.00 (better)	Corners	3.75
43.3	Possession %	52.8 (better)
281	Passes	421 (better)
	Tackles
9.00	Fouls	7.00 (better)
1.33	Offsides	0.50 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.00	Yellow cards	0.50 (better)
0.50	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Fagiano Okayama wins: 1
Draws: 0
Vissel Kobe wins: 2
Goals / game: 3.67
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 33%

Fagiano Okayama v Vissel Kobe0–32026-10-18
Vissel Kobe v Fagiano Okayama0–32026-05-10
Fagiano Okayama v Vissel Kobe1–42026-04-05

J1 League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	FC Tokyo	14	10	3	1	+25	33	FC Tokyo won 4 of the last 5
2	Kashiwa Reysol	14	10	1	3	+11	31	Kashiwa Reysol won 3 of the last 5
3	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	14	9	3	2	+22	30	Sanfrecce Hiroshima won 3 of the last 5
4	Machida Zelvia	14	8	5	1	+20	29	Machida Zelvia won 2 of the last 5
5	Vissel Kobe	14	8	3	3	+9	27	Vissel Kobe won 2 of the last 5
6	Kashima	14	7	2	5	+5	23	Kashima won 2 of the last 5
7	Yokohama F. Marinos	14	5	7	2	+6	22	Yokohama F. Marinos won 1 of the last 5
8	Kawasaki Frontale	14	6	4	4	+4	22	Kawasaki Frontale won 3 of the last 5
9	Urawa	14	7	1	6	-6	22	Urawa won 3 of the last 5
10	Fagiano Okayama	14	5	2	7	-6	17	Fagiano Okayama won 1 of the last 5
11	Cerezo Osaka	14	4	5	5	-9	17	Cerezo Osaka won 1 of the last 5
12	Kyoto Sanga	14	4	4	6	-4	16	Kyoto Sanga won 2 of the last 5
13	Nagoya Grampus	14	4	2	8	-8	14	Nagoya Grampus won 1 of the last 5
14	Tokyo Verdy	14	3	5	6	-10	14	Tokyo Verdy won 3 of the last 5
15	Shimizu S-pulse	14	4	2	8	-13	14	Shimizu S-pulse won 0 of the last 5
16	V-varen Nagasaki	14	3	4	7	-5	13	V-varen Nagasaki won 1 of the last 5
17	JEF United Chiba	14	3	4	7	-8	13	JEF United Chiba won 2 of the last 5
18	Gamba Osaka	14	2	6	6	-8	12	Gamba Osaka won 1 of the last 5
19	Mito Hollyhock	14	2	3	9	-14	9	Mito Hollyhock won 0 of the last 5
20	Avispa Fukuoka	14	2	2	10	-11	8	Avispa Fukuoka won 0 of the last 5