Fagiano Okayama v Mito Hollyhock

10th2–019th

10:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Fagiano Okayama		Mito Hollyhock
13	Shots	7
5	Shots on target	3
4	Corners	2
10	Fouls	12
1	Yellow cards	0
0	Red cards	0
5	Offsides	1
362	Passes	521
42%	Possession %	58%
1.11	xG	0.31

Over 1.5: 77%
Over 2.5: 52%
Over 3.5: 30%
Both score: 56%

Model pick: Fagiano Okayama 47%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.60 – 1.16

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Mito Hollyhock 0

3.45Bet365 · fair 3.20 · qualifies at 3.30+ · 0.79u

Why this price?

Back Mito Hollyhock 0 on the Asian handicap at 3.45 with Bet365 — Mito Hollyhock to win; a draw returns the stake.

Our model puts the chance at 37% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 28%; we judge it at 31%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 3.20. The offered 3.45 implies only 29%, so the price is 7.7% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 0.79 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Fagiano Okayama 1.60, Mito Hollyhock 1.16.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Fagiano Okayama	47.0%	2.13	1.81 Dafabet	55.2%	-8.3
Match result	Draw	25.9%	3.86	3.80 Dafabet	26.3%	-0.4
Match result	Mito Hollyhock	27.1%	3.69	5.50 Betfair	18.2%	+8.9
Total goals	Over 1.5	76.9%	1.30	1.40 Betano	71.4%	+5.5
Total goals	Under 1.5	23.1%	4.33	3.50 Betfair	28.6%	-5.5
Total goals	Over 2.5	52.2%	1.91	2.18 Betano	45.9%	+6.4
Total goals	Under 2.5	47.8%	2.09	1.87 Betfair	53.5%	-5.7
Total goals	Over 3.5	30.1%	3.33	4.10 BetVictor	24.4%	+5.7
Total goals	Under 3.5	69.9%	1.43	1.32 Betano	75.8%	-5.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	55.5%	1.80	2.10 BetVictor	47.6%	+7.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	44.5%	2.25	1.87 Betfair	53.5%	-9.0

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Fagiano Okayama favoured against Mito Hollyhock

Our model makes Fagiano Okayama 47% to win this J1 League fixture, with the draw at 26% and Mito Hollyhock at 27%. The goal projection is 1.60 for Fagiano Okayama against 1.16 for Mito Hollyhock — a clear edge to Fagiano Okayama on expected output. A combined 2.77 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 52% and both teams to score at 56%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 1-0 9%; 2-1 9%; 2-0 8%; 0-0 7%

This season

Season records for Fagiano Okayama and Mito Hollyhock
Fagiano Okayama		Mito Hollyhock
14	Played	14
5-2-7	W-D-L	2-3-9
1.21	Pts / game	0.64
1.14	Goals for / game	0.86
1.57	Goals against / game	1.86
71%	Over 2.5	43%
64%	BTTS	50%
21%	Clean sheets	0%
21%	Failed to score	50%
3-1-3	Home record	1-2-4
2-1-4	Away record	1-1-5
D1	Streak	L8

2027/28 league matches only, computed from results on record. Fagiano Okayama · Mito Hollyhock

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
13.8	Shots	7.2
3.8	Shots on target	1.3
6.5	Corners	3.0
2.00	Cards	1.17
11.8	Fouls	9.2
46	Possession %	42
1.16	xG	0.46
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
12.5	Shots	17.0
4.8	Shots on target	5.8
4.7	Corners	5.3
1.00	Cards	0.83
9.8	Fouls	8.8
54	Possession %	58
1.47	xG	1.86
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Fagiano Okayama	Metric	Mito Hollyhock
1.40	Goals scored	1.60 (better)
1.20	Goals conceded	1.00 (better)
1.59 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.50
	Big chances
2.33 (better)	Shots on target	1.67
9.67 (better)	Total shots	7.67
	Touches in opp. box
6.00 (better)	Corners	4.67
45.0	Possession %	56.0 (better)
349	Passes	535 (better)
	Tackles
10.33	Fouls	7.67 (better)
2.33 (better)	Offsides	3.33
	Throw-ins
2.33	Yellow cards	2.00 (better)
0.50	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Fagiano Okayama wins: 1
Draws: 0
Mito Hollyhock wins: 0
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

Fagiano Okayama v Mito Hollyhock2–02026-10-21

J1 League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	FC Tokyo	14	10	3	1	+25	33	FC Tokyo won 4 of the last 5
2	Kashiwa Reysol	14	10	1	3	+11	31	Kashiwa Reysol won 3 of the last 5
3	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	14	9	3	2	+22	30	Sanfrecce Hiroshima won 3 of the last 5
4	Machida Zelvia	14	8	5	1	+20	29	Machida Zelvia won 2 of the last 5
5	Vissel Kobe	14	8	3	3	+9	27	Vissel Kobe won 2 of the last 5
6	Kashima	14	7	2	5	+5	23	Kashima won 2 of the last 5
7	Yokohama F. Marinos	14	5	7	2	+6	22	Yokohama F. Marinos won 1 of the last 5
8	Kawasaki Frontale	14	6	4	4	+4	22	Kawasaki Frontale won 3 of the last 5
9	Urawa	14	7	1	6	-6	22	Urawa won 3 of the last 5
10	Fagiano Okayama	14	5	2	7	-6	17	Fagiano Okayama won 1 of the last 5
11	Cerezo Osaka	14	4	5	5	-9	17	Cerezo Osaka won 1 of the last 5
12	Kyoto Sanga	14	4	4	6	-4	16	Kyoto Sanga won 2 of the last 5
13	Nagoya Grampus	14	4	2	8	-8	14	Nagoya Grampus won 1 of the last 5
14	Tokyo Verdy	14	3	5	6	-10	14	Tokyo Verdy won 3 of the last 5
15	Shimizu S-pulse	14	4	2	8	-13	14	Shimizu S-pulse won 0 of the last 5
16	V-varen Nagasaki	14	3	4	7	-5	13	V-varen Nagasaki won 1 of the last 5
17	JEF United Chiba	14	3	4	7	-8	13	JEF United Chiba won 2 of the last 5
18	Gamba Osaka	14	2	6	6	-8	12	Gamba Osaka won 1 of the last 5
19	Mito Hollyhock	14	2	3	9	-14	9	Mito Hollyhock won 0 of the last 5
20	Avispa Fukuoka	14	2	2	10	-11	8	Avispa Fukuoka won 0 of the last 5