Fagiano Okayama won 1 of the last 5DLLWL10th0–4FC Tokyo won 4 of the last 5WWWDW1st
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Fagiano Okayama
FC Tokyo
12
Shots
21
4
Shots on target
8
8
Corners
5
6
Fouls
9
1
Yellow cards
0
0
Red cards
0
2
Offsides
2
352
Passes
574
39%
Possession %
61%
0.83
xG
4.11
25%
25%
50%
1 · Fagiano OkayamaXFC Tokyo · 2
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
33%
Both score
57%
Model pick
FC Tokyo 50%
Likely score
1-1 12%
Expected goals
1.17 – 1.74
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Fagiano Okayama
25.1%
3.99
4.00 BetVictor
25.0%
+0.1
Match result
Draw
24.8%
4.04
3.60 BetVictor
27.8%
-3.0
Match result
FC Tokyo
50.2%
1.99
2.01 Dafabet
49.8%
+0.4
Total goals
Over 1.5
79.1%
1.26
1.34 BetVictor
74.6%
+4.5
Total goals
Under 1.5
20.9%
4.79
3.50 Bet365
28.6%
-7.7
Total goals
Over 2.5
55.5%
1.80
2.05 Betano
48.8%
+6.7
Total goals
Under 2.5
44.5%
2.25
1.87 Betfair
53.5%
-8.9
Total goals
Over 3.5
33.1%
3.02
3.60 BetVictor
27.8%
+5.3
Total goals
Under 3.5
66.9%
1.50
1.33 Bet365
75.2%
-8.3
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
57.3%
1.75
1.87 Betfair
53.5%
+3.8
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
42.7%
2.34
2.00 BetVictor
50.0%
-7.3
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
FC Tokyo favoured against Fagiano Okayama
Our model makes Fagiano Okayama 25% to win this J1 League fixture, with the draw at 25% and FC Tokyo at 50%. The goal projection is 1.17 for Fagiano Okayama against 1.74 for FC Tokyo — a substantial edge to FC Tokyo on expected output. A combined 2.90 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 55% and both teams to score at 57%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Fagiano Okayama
Metric
FC Tokyo
1.40
Goals scored
2.20 (better)
1.60
Goals conceded
0.20 (better)
1.10
Expected goals (xG)
1.99 (better)
—
Big chances *
—
4.00
Shots on target
5.33 (better)
12.33
Total shots
19.00 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
5.67
Corners
6.00 (better)
48.3
Possession %
63.7 (better)
369
Passes
578 (better)
—
Tackles
—
10.67
Fouls
10.00 (better)
3.67
Offsides
0.67 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.33
Yellow cards
1.33 (better)
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Fagiano Okayama v 
FC Tokyo