Exeter City v Fleetwood Town

12th2–116th

14:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Exeter City		Fleetwood Town
12	Shots	14
4	Shots on target	4
5	Corners	5
9	Fouls	11
2	Yellow cards	0
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	0
383	Passes	413
47%	Possession %	53%
1.26	xG	0.90

Over 1.5: 59%
Over 2.5: 31%
Over 3.5: 13%
Both score: 40%

Model pick: Fleetwood Town 35%
Likely score: 0-0 15%
Expected goals: 0.95 – 1.01

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Exeter City -0.5

2.60Bet365 · fair 2.33 · qualifies at 2.40+ · 1.83u

Why this price?

Back Exeter City -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 2.60 with Bet365 — Exeter City must win by more than 0.5 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 32% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 50%; we judge it at 43%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.33. The offered 2.60 implies only 38%, so the price is 11.7% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.83 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Exeter City 0.95, Fleetwood Town 1.01.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Exeter City	32.0%	3.12	2.45 William Hill	40.8%	-8.8
Match result	Draw	32.6%	3.07	3.40 Betfair	29.4%	+3.2
Match result	Fleetwood Town	35.4%	2.83	3.20 Bet365	31.3%	+4.1
Total goals	Over 1.5	58.8%	1.70	1.36 Betfair	73.5%	-14.7
Total goals	Under 1.5	41.2%	2.43	3.25 Bet365	30.8%	+10.4
Total goals	Over 2.5	31.1%	3.21	2.15 Betfair	46.5%	-15.4
Total goals	Under 2.5	68.9%	1.45	1.80 Bet365	55.6%	+13.3
Total goals	Over 3.5	13.5%	7.41	4.10 Betfair	24.4%	-10.9
Total goals	Under 3.5	86.5%	1.16	1.29 Betfair	77.5%	+9.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	39.5%	2.53	1.85 William Hill	54.1%	-14.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	60.5%	1.65	2.00 Betfair	50.0%	+10.5

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Exeter City v Fleetwood Town: too close to call

Our model makes Exeter City 32% to win this League Two fixture, with the draw at 33% and Fleetwood Town at 35%. The goal projection is 0.95 for Exeter City against 1.01 for Fleetwood Town — almost nothing to Fleetwood Town on expected output. A combined 1.96 goals points to a low-scoring, tight affair, which puts over 2.5 at 31% and both teams to score at 40%. The single most likely scoreline is 0-0 at 15%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 0-0 15%; 1-1 14%; 0-1 14%; 1-0 13%; 0-2 7%

This season

Season records for Exeter City and Fleetwood Town
Exeter City		Fleetwood Town
14	Played	14
5-4-5	W-D-L	4-5-5
1.36	Pts / game	1.21
0.79	Goals for / game	1.29
0.64	Goals against / game	1.29
21%	Over 2.5	43%
29%	BTTS	64%
50%	Clean sheets	29%
43%	Failed to score	14%
4-3-0	Home record	3-3-1
1-1-5	Away record	1-2-4
L1	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Exeter City · Fleetwood Town

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
11.4	Shots	16.1
3.6	Shots on target	4.9
4.1	Corners	5.4
1.57	Cards	2.14
10.0	Fouls	10.3
50	Possession %	51
1.12	xG	1.89
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
13.4	Shots	9.9
3.1	Shots on target	3.0
4.9	Corners	5.1
1.71	Cards	1.88
13.7	Fouls	12.9
50	Possession %	49
1.19	xG	1.02
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Exeter City	Metric	Fleetwood Town
1.20	Goals scored	1.20
1.00 (better)	Goals conceded	1.20
1.58	Expected goals (xG)	3.17 (better)
	Big chances
5.20 (better)	Shots on target	4.40
10.40	Total shots	14.00 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
3.80	Corners	4.40 (better)
49.6 (better)	Possession %	44.2
362 (better)	Passes	349
	Tackles
11.60	Fouls	11.00 (better)
2.25	Offsides	1.00 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.80 (better)	Yellow cards	2.20
0.50	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Exeter City wins: 1
Draws: 0
Fleetwood Town wins: 0
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Exeter City v Fleetwood Town2–12026-10-24

League Two table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Salford City	14	10	1	3	+10	31	Salford City won 5 of the last 5
2	Barnet	13	7	5	1	+10	26	Barnet won 2 of the last 5
3	Walsall	13	5	7	1	+9	22	Walsall won 2 of the last 5
4	Crewe	14	5	7	2	0	22	Crewe won 2 of the last 5
5	Cheltenham	14	6	3	5	-2	21	Cheltenham won 2 of the last 5
6	Grimsby	14	5	5	4	+6	20	Grimsby won 2 of the last 5
7	York	14	5	5	4	+3	20	York won 1 of the last 5
8	Gillingham	14	5	5	4	+1	20	Gillingham won 2 of the last 5
9	Accrington ST	14	4	7	3	+6	19	Accrington ST won 2 of the last 5
10	Chesterfield	14	5	4	5	+3	19	Chesterfield won 1 of the last 5
11	Tranmere	14	4	7	3	+2	19	Tranmere won 2 of the last 5
12	Exeter City	14	5	4	5	+2	19	Exeter City won 3 of the last 5
13	Swindon Town	14	5	4	5	-2	19	Swindon Town won 2 of the last 5
14	Newport County	14	4	6	4	+3	18	Newport County won 2 of the last 5
15	Shrewsbury	14	5	3	6	-5	18	Shrewsbury won 2 of the last 5
16	Fleetwood Town	14	4	5	5	0	17	Fleetwood Town won 2 of the last 5
17	Bristol Rovers	14	5	1	8	-6	16	Bristol Rovers won 0 of the last 5
18	Oldham	14	4	3	7	-4	15	Oldham won 2 of the last 5
19	Port Vale	12	4	3	5	-4	15	Port Vale won 3 of the last 5
20	Rochdale	14	4	3	7	-9	15	Rochdale won 0 of the last 5
21	Northampton	13	3	5	5	-1	14	Northampton won 2 of the last 5
22	Rotherham	14	2	6	6	-7	12	Rotherham won 0 of the last 5
23	Colchester	13	2	6	5	-7	12	Colchester won 0 of the last 5
24	Crawley Town	12	2	3	7	-8	9	Crawley Town won 1 of the last 5