Exeter City v 
Crewe
Match statistics
| Exeter City | Crewe | |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 2 | Offsides | 2 |
| 375 | Passes | 423 |
| 46% | Possession % | 54% |
| 1.91 | xG | 0.99 |
- Over 1.5
- 63%
- Over 2.5
- 35%
- Over 3.5
- 16%
- Both score
- 43%
- Model pick
- Crewe 36%
- Likely score
- 1-1 14%
- Expected goals
- 1.02 – 1.08
Advised bets
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 4 of 5Under 1.5
Why this price?
Back under 1.5 goals at 3.40 with Bet365 — 1 goal or fewer in the match.
Our model puts the chance at 37% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 28%; we judge it at 32%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 3.14. The offered 3.40 implies only 29%, so the price is 8.1% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 0.85 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Exeter City 1.02, Crewe 1.08.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 3 of 5Exeter City -0.5
Why this price?
Back Exeter City -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 2.39 with BetVictor — Exeter City must win by more than 0.5 goals.
Our model puts the chance at 33% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 53%; we judge it at 45%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.24. The offered 2.39 implies only 42%, so the price is 6.9% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.24 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Exeter City 1.02, Crewe 1.08.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Exeter City | 32.6% | 3.07 | 2.57 Betano | 38.9% | -6.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 31.3% | 3.20 | 3.45 Dafabet | 29.0% | +2.3 |
| Match result | Crewe | 36.1% | 2.77 | 2.90 William Hill | 34.5% | +1.7 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 62.8% | 1.59 | 1.37 BetVictor | 73.0% | -10.2 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 37.2% | 2.69 | 3.25 Bet365 | 30.8% | +6.5 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 35.1% | 2.85 | 2.15 Bet365 | 46.5% | -11.4 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 64.9% | 1.54 | 1.75 Bet365 | 57.1% | +7.8 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 16.2% | 6.18 | 3.80 BetVictor | 26.3% | -10.1 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 83.8% | 1.19 | 1.28 Bet365 | 78.1% | +5.7 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 42.9% | 2.33 | 1.87 Betfair | 53.5% | -10.5 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 57.1% | 1.75 | 2.07 Betano | 48.3% | +8.8 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Exeter City v Crewe: too close to call
Our model makes Exeter City 33% to win this League Two fixture, with the draw at 31% and Crewe at 36%. The goal projection is 1.02 for Exeter City against 1.08 for Crewe — almost nothing to Crewe on expected output. A combined 2.10 goals points to a low-scoring, tight affair, which puts over 2.5 at 35% and both teams to score at 43%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 14%
- 0-0 13%
- 0-1 13%
- 1-0 12%
- 1-2 7%
This season
| Exeter City | Crewe | |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Played | 14 |
| 5-4-5 | W-D-L | 5-7-2 |
| 1.36 | Pts / game | 1.57 |
| 0.79 | Goals for / game | 1.21 |
| 0.64 | Goals against / game | 1.21 |
| 21% | Over 2.5 | 29% |
| 29% | BTTS | 64% |
| 50% | Clean sheets | 29% |
| 43% | Failed to score | 14% |
| 4-3-0 | Home record | 3-4-0 |
| 1-1-5 | Away record | 2-3-2 |
| L1 | Streak | D1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Exeter City · Crewe
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 11.4 | Shots | 8.9 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.6 | Shots on target | 2.9 |
| 4.1 | Corners | 3.0 |
| 1.57 | Cards | 1.43 |
| 10.0 | Fouls | 10.7 |
| 50 | Possession % | 45 |
| 1.12 | xG | 1.03 |
| 7 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Conceded
| 13.4 | Shots | 13.1 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.1 | Shots on target | 3.4 |
| 4.9 | Corners | 4.4 |
| 1.71 | Cards | 1.57 |
| 13.7 | Fouls | 13.1 |
| 50 | Possession % | 55 |
| 1.19 | xG | 1.19 |
| 7 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Form comparison
| Exeter City | Metric | Crewe |
|---|---|---|
| 1.20 | Goals scored | 2.20 (better) |
| 1.00 | Goals conceded | 1.00 |
| 1.58 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.66 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 5.20 (better) | Shots on target | 4.00 |
| 10.40 (better) | Total shots | 9.60 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 3.80 | Corners | 4.40 (better) |
| 54.0 (better) | Possession % | 45.8 |
| 362 (better) | Passes | 341 |
| Tackles | ||
| 11.60 (better) | Fouls | 14.00 |
| 2.25 (better) | Offsides | 3.20 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.80 (better) | Yellow cards | 2.40 |
| 0.33 | Red cards | 0.00 (better) |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Exeter City wins
- 1
- Draws
- 0
- Crewe wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 2.00
- Over 2.5
- 0%
- Both score
- 0%
- Exeter City v Crewe2–02026-10-20
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salford City | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | +10 | 31 | Salford City won 5 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Barnet | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | +10 | 26 | Barnet won 2 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Walsall | 13 | 5 | 7 | 1 | +9 | 22 | Walsall won 2 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Crewe | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 22 | Crewe won 2 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Cheltenham | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 21 | Cheltenham won 2 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Grimsby | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | +6 | 20 | Grimsby won 2 of the last 5 |
| 7 | York | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | +3 | 20 | York won 1 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Gillingham | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 20 | Gillingham won 2 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Accrington ST | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | +6 | 19 | Accrington ST won 2 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Chesterfield | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | +3 | 19 | Chesterfield won 1 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Tranmere | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | +2 | 19 | Tranmere won 2 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Exeter City | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | +2 | 19 | Exeter City won 3 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Swindon Town | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 19 | Swindon Town won 2 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Newport County | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | +3 | 18 | Newport County won 2 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Shrewsbury | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -5 | 18 | Shrewsbury won 2 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Fleetwood Town | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 17 | Fleetwood Town won 2 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Bristol Rovers | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | -6 | 16 | Bristol Rovers won 0 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Oldham | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 15 | Oldham won 2 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Port Vale | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 15 | Port Vale won 3 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Rochdale | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 15 | Rochdale won 0 of the last 5 |
| 21 | Northampton | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -1 | 14 | Northampton won 2 of the last 5 |
| 22 | Rotherham | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | -7 | 12 | Rotherham won 0 of the last 5 |
| 23 | Colchester | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | -7 | 12 | Colchester won 0 of the last 5 |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 9 | Crawley Town won 1 of the last 5 |