Excelsior Maassluis won 1 of the last 3LWD0–2Heerenveen won 4 of the last 5WWWWL6th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Excelsior Maassluis
Heerenveen
8
Shots
13
2
Shots on target
7
4
Corners
3
17
Fouls
7
3
Yellow cards
1
—
Red cards
—
2
Offsides
2
213
Passes
593
27%
Possession %
73%
—
xG
—
30%
23%
47%
1 · Excelsior MaassluisXHeerenveen · 2
Over 1.5
87%
Over 2.5
68%
Over 3.5
46%
Both score
68%
Model pick
Heerenveen 47%
Likely score
1-1 10%
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.95
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Excelsior Maassluis
30.0%
3.33
11.00 Dafabet
9.1%
+20.9
Match result
Draw
22.8%
4.39
6.60 Dafabet
15.2%
+7.6
Match result
Heerenveen
47.2%
2.12
1.25 William Hill
80.0%
-32.8
Total goals
Over 1.5
86.7%
1.15
1.10 Bet365
90.9%
-4.2
Total goals
Under 1.5
13.3%
7.54
7.50 Betfair
13.3%
-0.1
Total goals
Over 2.5
67.7%
1.48
1.36 Bet365
73.5%
-5.8
Total goals
Under 2.5
32.3%
3.09
3.20 Betfair
31.3%
+1.1
Total goals
Over 3.5
46.1%
2.17
—
—
—
Total goals
Under 3.5
53.9%
1.85
1.90 Betfair
52.6%
+1.3
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
67.8%
1.48
1.80 Betfair
55.6%
+12.2
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
32.2%
3.10
2.15 Betfair
46.5%
-14.3
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Heerenveen favoured against Excelsior Maassluis
Our model makes Excelsior Maassluis 30% to win this KNVB Beker fixture, with the draw at 23% and Heerenveen at 47%. The goal projection is 1.53 for Excelsior Maassluis against 1.95 for Heerenveen — a clear edge to Heerenveen on expected output. A combined 3.49 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 68% and both teams to score at 68%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 10%
1-2 9%
2-1 7%
2-2 7%
0-2 6%
This season
Season records for Excelsior Maassluis and Heerenveen
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Excelsior Maassluis
Metric
Heerenveen
2.20 (better)
Goals scored
2.00
0.80 (better)
Goals conceded
1.00
—
Expected goals (xG)
1.84
—
Big chances *
—
—
Shots on target
6.40
—
Total shots
17.20
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
—
Corners
5.60
—
Possession %
51.6
—
Passes
476
—
Tackles
—
—
Fouls
10.00
—
Offsides
1.00
—
Throw-ins *
—
—
Yellow cards
1.00
—
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Excelsior Maassluis v 
Heerenveen