Predicted Edge

Excelsior '31 v ADO Den Haag

Excelsior '31 won 2 of the last 31–1aet, 6–5 pensADO Den Haag won 2 of the last 517th
Over 1.5
90%
Over 2.5
73%
Over 3.5
52%
Both score
72%
Model pick
Excelsior '31 47%
Likely score
1-1 8%
Expected goals
2.10 – 1.69

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultExcelsior '3147.1%2.1217.00 Bet3655.9%+41.3
Match resultDraw21.7%4.608.00 Dafabet12.5%+9.2
Match resultADO Den Haag31.1%3.211.19 Betano84.0%-52.9
Total goalsOver 1.589.6%1.121.07 Bet36593.5%-3.9
Total goalsUnder 1.510.4%9.589.00 Bet36511.1%-0.7
Total goalsOver 2.572.9%1.371.28 Bet36578.1%-5.2
Total goalsUnder 2.527.1%3.693.80 BetVictor26.3%+0.8
Total goalsOver 3.552.4%1.911.73 Bet36557.8%-5.4
Total goalsUnder 3.547.6%2.102.10 Betfair47.6%-0.0
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes71.9%1.391.83 Betfair54.6%+17.3
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No28.1%3.562.10 Betfair47.6%-19.6

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Excelsior '31 favoured against ADO Den Haag

Our model makes Excelsior '31 47% to win this KNVB Beker fixture, with the draw at 22% and ADO Den Haag at 31%. The goal projection is 2.10 for Excelsior '31 against 1.69 for ADO Den Haag — a clear edge to Excelsior '31 on expected output. A combined 3.79 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 73% and both teams to score at 72%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 8%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
1-1 8%
2-1 8%
2-2 7%
1-2 7%
3-1 6%

This season

Season records for Excelsior '31 and ADO Den Haag
Excelsior '31 ADO Den Haag
3Played12
2-1-0W-D-L2-3-7
2.33Pts / game0.75
2.00Goals for / game1.33
1.33Goals against / game2.08
33%Over 2.567%
67%BTTS75%
33%Clean sheets0%
0%Failed to score25%
1-1-0Home record2-1-3
1-0-0Away record0-2-4
D1StreakW1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Excelsior '31 · ADO Den Haag

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
—Shots13.4
—Shots on target4.6
—Corners3.6
—Cards2.00
—Fouls14.2
—Possession %51
—xG1.58
—sample5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
—Shots20.0
—Shots on target4.8
—Corners5.8
—Cards1.20
—Fouls9.6
—Possession %49
—xG1.98
—sample5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Excelsior '31MetricADO Den Haag
3.20 (better)Goals scored1.40
1.20 (better)Goals conceded1.80
Expected goals (xG)0.96
Big chances
Shots on target3.60
Total shots11.40
Touches in opp. box
Corners2.60
Possession %49.0
Passes410
Tackles
Fouls16.00
Offsides2.00
Throw-ins
Yellow cards2.00
Red cards0.25

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Excelsior '31 wins
0
Draws
1
ADO Den Haag wins
0
Goals / game
2.00
Over 2.5
0%
Both score
100%