Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto v Racing Club

30th1–219th

00:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto		Racing Club
10	Shots	8
2	Shots on target	5
9	Corners	8
12	Fouls	15
2	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
3	Offsides	0
334	Passes	396
47%	Possession %	53%
—	xG	—

Over 1.5: 65%
Over 2.5: 37%
Over 3.5: 18%
Both score: 41%

Model pick: Racing Club 51%
Likely score: 0-1 15%
Expected goals: 0.77 – 1.41

Advised bets

Won

Free pick

Racing Club

2.15William Hill · fair 1.95 · qualifies at 2.11+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Racing Club to win at 2.15 with William Hill.

Our model puts the chance at 51%, which is a fair price of 1.95. The offered 2.15 implies only 47%, so the price is 10.1% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 0.77, Racing Club 1.41.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	19.9%	5.02	4.60 BetVictor	21.7%	-1.8
Match result	Draw	28.9%	3.46	3.20 Betfair	31.3%	-2.4
Match result	Racing Club	51.2%	1.95	2.15 William Hill	46.5%	+4.7
Total goals	Over 1.5	64.8%	1.54	1.60 Betano	62.5%	+2.3
Total goals	Under 1.5	35.2%	2.84	2.55 Betfair	39.2%	-4.0
Total goals	Over 2.5	37.2%	2.69	2.88 Betfair	34.7%	+2.5
Total goals	Under 2.5	62.8%	1.59	1.48 Bet365	67.6%	-4.8
Total goals	Over 3.5	17.7%	5.65	6.00 Betfair	16.7%	+1.0
Total goals	Under 3.5	82.3%	1.22	1.17 Bet365	85.5%	-3.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	41.4%	2.41	2.38 Betfair	42.0%	-0.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	58.6%	1.71	1.65 Betfair	60.6%	-2.1

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Racing Club favoured against Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

Our model makes Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 20% to win this Liga Profesional Argentina fixture, with the draw at 29% and Racing Club at 51%. The goal projection is 0.77 for Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto against 1.41 for Racing Club — a substantial edge to Racing Club on expected output. A combined 2.18 goals points to a low-scoring, tight affair, which puts over 2.5 at 37% and both teams to score at 41%. The single most likely scoreline is 0-1 at 15%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 0-1 15%; 1-1 13%; 0-0 12%; 0-2 11%; 1-2 9%

This season

Season records for Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto and Racing Club
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto		Racing Club
32	Played	34
3-5-24	W-D-L	10-10-14
0.44	Pts / game	1.18
0.47	Goals for / game	1.03
1.47	Goals against / game	1.18
38%	Over 2.5	44%
34%	BTTS	59%
19%	Clean sheets	24%
59%	Failed to score	29%
3-3-10	Home record	5-5-6
0-2-14	Away record	5-5-8
L3	Streak	L1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto · Racing Club

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
10.6	Shots	11.0
2.6	Shots on target	3.8
4.6	Corners	5.3
2.86	Cards	2.83
14.3	Fouls	13.0
41	Possession %	56
0.95	xG	1.20
7 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.1	Shots	13.7
6.3	Shots on target	4.0
7.7	Corners	4.7
1.29	Cards	1.83
11.6	Fouls	10.3
59	Possession %	44
1.35	xG	1.69
7 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	Metric	Racing Club
0.60	Goals scored	1.60 (better)
1.40 (better)	Goals conceded	2.20
0.81 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.77
	Big chances
3.40	Shots on target	5.75 (better)
11.60	Total shots	15.25 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.80	Corners	5.00 (better)
48.0	Possession %	63.5 (better)
369	Passes	499 (better)
	Tackles
14.20	Fouls	9.25 (better)
1.25	Offsides	1.25
	Throw-ins
2.60	Yellow cards	2.00 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto wins: 0
Draws: 0
Racing Club wins: 2
Goals / game: 2.50
Over 2.5: 50%
Both score: 50%

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto v Racing Club1–22026-10-05
Racing Club v Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto2–02026-03-16

Liga Profesional Argentina table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Rosario Central	35	19	9	7	+19	66	Rosario Central won 5 of the last 5
2	Argentinos JRS	35	18	11	6	+12	65	Argentinos JRS won 3 of the last 5
3	Boca Juniors	33	17	13	3	+23	64	Boca Juniors won 4 of the last 5
4	River Plate	36	19	5	12	+19	62	River Plate won 3 of the last 5
5	Gimnasia L.P.	34	18	6	10	+4	60	Gimnasia L.P. won 4 of the last 5
6	Belgrano Cordoba	36	16	11	9	+10	59	Belgrano Cordoba won 1 of the last 5
7	Independ. Rivadavia	33	16	9	8	+10	57	Independ. Rivadavia won 1 of the last 5
8	Velez Sarsfield	33	14	14	5	+13	56	Velez Sarsfield won 2 of the last 5
9	Instituto Cordoba	32	16	7	9	+11	55	Instituto Cordoba won 2 of the last 5
10	Lanus	33	13	11	9	+8	50	Lanus won 2 of the last 5
11	Estudiantes L.P.	33	13	8	12	+10	47	Estudiantes L.P. won 0 of the last 5
12	Barracas Central	32	12	11	9	+4	47	Barracas Central won 3 of the last 5
13	Defensa Y Justicia	32	12	11	9	+3	47	Defensa Y Justicia won 2 of the last 5
14	Independiente	33	12	11	10	+1	47	Independiente won 1 of the last 5
15	Huracan	34	11	13	10	+2	46	Huracan won 1 of the last 5
16	Union Santa Fe	34	12	9	13	+3	45	Union Santa Fe won 2 of the last 5
17	San Lorenzo	33	10	12	11	-7	42	San Lorenzo won 2 of the last 5
18	Gimnasia M.	32	11	8	13	-7	41	Gimnasia M. won 1 of the last 5
19	Racing Club	34	10	10	14	-5	40	Racing Club won 1 of the last 5
20	Sarmiento Junin	32	12	4	16	-8	40	Sarmiento Junin won 0 of the last 5
21	Tigre	32	9	12	11	+3	39	Tigre won 2 of the last 5
22	Talleres Cordoba	33	10	9	14	-3	39	Talleres Cordoba won 1 of the last 5
23	Newells Old Boys	32	8	14	10	-9	38	Newells Old Boys won 1 of the last 5
24	Platense	32	8	12	12	-7	36	Platense won 3 of the last 5
25	Banfield	32	8	9	15	-9	33	Banfield won 1 of the last 5
26	Atletico Tucuman	32	7	11	14	-6	32	Atletico Tucuman won 1 of the last 5
27	Central Cordoba de Santiago	32	6	9	17	-24	27	Central Cordoba de Santiago won 0 of the last 5
28	Deportivo Riestra	32	3	14	15	-15	23	Deportivo Riestra won 0 of the last 5
29	Aldosivi	32	3	10	19	-23	19	Aldosivi won 1 of the last 5
30	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	32	3	5	24	-32	14	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto won 1 of the last 5