Esteghlal FC v Al Shamal

5th1–017th

16:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Esteghlal FC		Al Shamal
12	Shots	12
6	Shots on target	3
2	Corners	5
9	Fouls	5
0	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	1
6	Offsides	1
361	Passes	467
46%	Possession %	54%
1.20	xG	0.57

Over 1.5: 73%
Over 2.5: 47%
Over 3.5: 26%
Both score: 52%

Model pick: Esteghlal FC 46%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.48 – 1.08

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Esteghlal FC	45.7%	2.19	2.37 Dafabet	42.2%	+3.5
Match result	Draw	27.2%	3.67	3.35 Dafabet	29.9%	-2.6
Match result	Al Shamal	27.0%	3.70	3.15 Dafabet	31.7%	-4.7
Total goals	Over 1.5	73.2%	1.37	1.34 BetVictor	74.6%	-1.5
Total goals	Under 1.5	26.8%	3.73	3.25 Bet365	30.8%	-3.9
Total goals	Over 2.5	47.2%	2.12	2.05 Bet365	48.8%	-1.5
Total goals	Under 2.5	52.8%	1.90	1.75 Bet365	57.1%	-4.4
Total goals	Over 3.5	25.6%	3.90	3.60 BetVictor	27.8%	-2.2
Total goals	Under 3.5	74.4%	1.34	1.29 Betano	77.5%	-3.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	51.7%	1.93	1.83 Bet365	54.6%	-2.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	48.3%	2.07	1.95 BetVictor	51.3%	-3.0

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Esteghlal FC favoured against Al Shamal

Our model makes Esteghlal FC 46% to win this AFC Champions League Elite fixture, with the draw at 27% and Al Shamal at 27%. The goal projection is 1.48 for Esteghlal FC against 1.08 for Al Shamal — a clear edge to Esteghlal FC on expected output. A combined 2.56 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 47% and both teams to score at 52%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 1-0 11%; 2-1 9%; 2-0 8%; 0-0 8%

This season

Season records for Esteghlal FC and Al Shamal
Esteghlal FC		Al Shamal
4	Played	4
3-0-1	W-D-L	1-2-1
2.25	Pts / game	1.25
1.50	Goals for / game	1.00
0.75	Goals against / game	0.75
50%	Over 2.5	25%
25%	BTTS	50%
50%	Clean sheets	25%
25%	Failed to score	50%
2-0-0	Home record	1-1-0
1-0-1	Away record	0-1-1
W1	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Esteghlal FC · Al Shamal

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
10.3	Shots	11.7
3.3	Shots on target	3.7
2.7	Corners	4.3
1.67	Cards	3.00
13.3	Fouls	12.0
49	Possession %	50
0.82	xG	1.32
3 matches	sample	3 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
13.0	Shots	9.7
5.7	Shots on target	4.0
5.3	Corners	2.0
1.33	Cards	0.33
7.3	Fouls	7.7
51	Possession %	50
1.13	xG	1.38
3 matches	sample	3 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Esteghlal FC	Metric	Al Shamal
1.60 (better)	Goals scored	0.80
0.60 (better)	Goals conceded	1.60
0.67	Expected goals (xG)	1.12 (better)
	Big chances
5.00 (better)	Shots on target	3.75
9.50	Total shots	12.25 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
3.50	Corners	6.75 (better)
40.5	Possession %	60.3 (better)
350	Passes	520 (better)
	Tackles
11.50	Fouls	8.00 (better)
0.00 (better)	Offsides	1.25
	Throw-ins
3.00	Yellow cards	1.75 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Esteghlal FC wins: 1
Draws: 0
Al Shamal wins: 0
Goals / game: 1.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

Esteghlal FC v Al Shamal1–02026-11-03

AFC Champions League Elite table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Al Ain	4	4	0	0	+11	12	Al Ain won 4 of the last 4
2	Vissel Kobe	4	4	0	0	+5	12	Vissel Kobe won 4 of the last 4
3	Kashima	4	3	1	0	+10	10	Kashima won 3 of the last 4
4	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	4	3	0	1	+3	9	Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 3 of the last 4
5	Esteghlal FC	4	3	0	1	+3	9	Esteghlal FC won 3 of the last 4
6	Shabab Al Ahli Dubai	4	3	0	1	+2	9	Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won 3 of the last 4
7	Al-Qadisiyah FC	4	2	2	0	+6	8	Al-Qadisiyah FC won 2 of the last 4
8	Gamba Osaka	4	2	2	0	+5	8	Gamba Osaka won 2 of the last 4
9	Al-Ahli Jeddah	4	2	2	0	+3	8	Al-Ahli Jeddah won 2 of the last 4
10	Kashiwa Reysol	4	2	1	1	+5	7	Kashiwa Reysol won 2 of the last 4
11	SHANGHAI SIPG	4	2	1	1	+3	7	SHANGHAI SIPG won 2 of the last 4
12	Johor Darul Takzim FC	4	2	1	1	+3	7	Johor Darul Takzim FC won 2 of the last 4
13	Kyoto Sanga	4	2	1	1	+3	7	Kyoto Sanga won 2 of the last 4
14	Jeonbuk Motors	4	2	1	1	+1	7	Jeonbuk Motors won 2 of the last 4
15	Beijing Guoan	4	2	1	1	0	7	Beijing Guoan won 2 of the last 4
16	Al-Nassr	3	2	0	1	+2	6	Al-Nassr won 2 of the last 3
17	Al Shamal	4	1	2	1	+1	5	Al Shamal won 1 of the last 4
18	Neftchi	4	1	1	2	-2	4	Neftchi won 1 of the last 4
19	Daejeon Citizen	4	1	1	2	-2	4	Daejeon Citizen won 1 of the last 4
20	Al-Ittihad FC	4	1	1	2	-3	4	Al-Ittihad FC won 1 of the last 4
21	Công An Nhân Dân	4	1	1	2	-3	4	Công An Nhân Dân won 1 of the last 4
22	Buriram United	4	0	3	1	-1	3	Buriram United won 0 of the last 4
23	Al-Wasl FC	3	1	0	2	-2	3	Al-Wasl FC won 1 of the last 3
24	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	4	1	0	3	-4	3	Al Quwa Al Jawiya won 1 of the last 4
25	Port FC	4	1	0	3	-5	3	Port FC won 1 of the last 4
26	Tractor Sazi	4	0	2	2	-2	2	Tractor Sazi won 0 of the last 4
27	Pakhtakor	4	0	2	2	-5	2	Pakhtakor won 0 of the last 4
28	Al Sadd	4	0	2	2	-5	2	Al Sadd won 0 of the last 4
29	Ratchaburi	4	0	1	3	-4	1	Ratchaburi won 0 of the last 4
30	Pohang Steelers	4	0	1	3	-7	1	Pohang Steelers won 0 of the last 4
31	Al-Gharafa	4	0	0	4	-8	0	Al-Gharafa won 0 of the last 4
32	Newcastle Jets	4	0	0	4	-13	0	Newcastle Jets won 0 of the last 4