ES Tunis v Asswehly

1–0aet, 3–1 pens

16:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
ES Tunis		Asswehly
19	Shots	4
5	Shots on target	1
6	Corners	1
—	Fouls	—
3	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
—	Offsides	—
—	Passes	—
55%	Possession %	45%
—	xG	—

Over 1.5: 65%
Over 2.5: 38%
Over 3.5: 18%
Both score: 45%

Model pick: ES Tunis 42%
Likely score: 1-1 14%
Expected goals: 1.25 – 0.96

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	ES Tunis	42.3%	2.36	1.20 Bet365	83.3%	-41.0
Match result	Draw	30.0%	3.33	6.40 Dafabet	15.6%	+14.4
Match result	Asswehly	27.7%	3.61	17.00 Bet365	5.9%	+21.8
Total goals	Over 1.5	65.4%	1.53	1.17 Betfair	85.5%	-20.1
Total goals	Under 1.5	34.6%	2.89	5.00 Betfair	20.0%	+14.6
Total goals	Over 2.5	37.9%	2.64	1.57 Bet365	63.7%	-25.8
Total goals	Under 2.5	62.1%	1.61	2.35 Bet365	42.6%	+19.5
Total goals	Over 3.5	18.2%	5.49	2.55 Betfair	39.2%	-21.0
Total goals	Under 3.5	81.8%	1.22	1.50 Betfair	66.7%	+15.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	44.6%	2.24	2.38 Betfair	42.0%	+2.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	55.4%	1.81	1.60 William Hill	62.5%	-7.1

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

ES Tunis favoured against Asswehly

Our model makes ES Tunis 42% to win this CAF Champions League fixture, with the draw at 30% and Asswehly at 28%. The goal projection is 1.25 for ES Tunis against 0.96 for Asswehly — a clear edge to ES Tunis on expected output. A combined 2.21 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 38% and both teams to score at 45%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 14%; 1-0 13%; 0-0 12%; 0-1 10%; 2-0 9%

This season

Season records for ES Tunis and Asswehly
ES Tunis		Asswehly
3	Played	4
1-0-2	W-D-L	3-0-1
1.00	Pts / game	2.25
0.33	Goals for / game	1.25
1.67	Goals against / game	0.25
33%	Over 2.5	25%
0%	BTTS	0%
33%	Clean sheets	75%
67%	Failed to score	25%
0-0-1	Home record	2-0-0
1-0-1	Away record	1-0-1
L1	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. ES Tunis · Asswehly

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
11.0	Shots	7.5
2.5	Shots on target	2.5
4.5	Corners	1.5
3.00	Cards	2.00
—	Fouls	—
48	Possession %	52
—	xG	—
2 matches	sample	2 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
7.5	Shots	11.0
2.5	Shots on target	2.5
1.5	Corners	4.5
2.00	Cards	3.00
—	Fouls	—
52	Possession %	48
—	xG	—
2 matches	sample	2 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
ES Tunis	Metric	Asswehly
2.00 (better)	Goals scored	1.60
1.40	Goals conceded	0.20 (better)
	Expected goals (xG)
	Big chances
	Shots on target
	Total shots
	Touches in opp. box
	Corners
	Possession %
	Passes
	Tackles
	Fouls
	Offsides
	Throw-ins
	Yellow cards
	Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

ES Tunis wins: 1
Draws: 0
Asswehly wins: 1
Goals / game: 1.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

ES Tunis v Asswehly1–02026-10-24
Asswehly v ES Tunis1–02026-10-18