Empoli v Vicenza Virtus

18th0–219th

18:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Empoli		Vicenza Virtus
13	Shots	19
5	Shots on target	3
4	Corners	4
12	Fouls	23
1	Yellow cards	2
1	Red cards	0
4	Offsides	0
378	Passes	350
51%	Possession %	49%
0.57	xG	2.01

Over 1.5: 79%
Over 2.5: 56%
Over 3.5: 33%
Both score: 58%

Model pick: Empoli 50%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.73 – 1.18

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Total goals	Over 2.5	55.6%	1.80	1.91 Betano	52.4%	+3.3
Total goals	Under 2.5	44.4%	2.25	1.98 Betano	50.5%	-6.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	42.4%	2.36	2.30 Betfair	43.5%	-1.1
Match result	Empoli	49.5%	2.02	2.60 Bet365	38.5%	+11.0
Match result	Draw	24.9%	4.02	3.40 Betfair	29.4%	-4.6
Match result	Vicenza Virtus	25.6%	3.90	2.80 Bet365	35.7%	-10.1
Total goals	Over 1.5	79.2%	1.26	1.29 Betano	77.5%	+1.7
Total goals	Under 1.5	20.8%	4.82	3.80 Betfair	26.3%	-5.6
Total goals	Over 3.5	33.2%	3.01	3.25 Bet365	30.8%	+2.5
Total goals	Under 3.5	66.8%	1.50	1.39 Betano	71.9%	-5.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	57.6%	1.74	1.67 Bet365	59.9%	-2.3

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Empoli favoured against Vicenza Virtus

Our model makes Empoli 49% to win this Serie B fixture, with the draw at 25% and Vicenza Virtus at 26%. The goal projection is 1.73 for Empoli against 1.18 for Vicenza Virtus — a substantial edge to Empoli on expected output. A combined 2.91 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 56% and both teams to score at 58%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 2-1 10%; 1-0 9%; 2-0 8%; 1-2 7%

This season

Season records for Empoli and Vicenza Virtus
Empoli		Vicenza Virtus
11	Played	10
2-3-6	W-D-L	1-3-6
0.82	Pts / game	0.60
1.09	Goals for / game	1.10
1.73	Goals against / game	2.20
55%	Over 2.5	80%
64%	BTTS	70%
18%	Clean sheets	10%
18%	Failed to score	20%
1-1-3	Home record	0-1-3
1-2-3	Away record	1-2-3
D2	Streak	L3

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Empoli · Vicenza Virtus

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.3	Shots	10.7
4.3	Shots on target	2.3
4.3	Corners	4.6
1.83	Cards	2.57
12.1	Fouls	15.3
44	Possession %	47
1.19	xG	1.08
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
19.1	Shots	16.9
5.7	Shots on target	6.1
5.4	Corners	4.4
2.14	Cards	1.74
14.0	Fouls	11.3
56	Possession %	53
1.97	xG	2.01
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Empoli	Metric	Vicenza Virtus
1.00	Goals scored	1.00
2.00	Goals conceded	2.00
0.85	Expected goals (xG)	0.90 (better)
	Big chances
2.40	Shots on target	2.50 (better)
9.40	Total shots	9.50 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
3.80	Corners	5.75 (better)
47.6 (better)	Possession %	45.3
428 (better)	Passes	350
	Tackles
13.80 (better)	Fouls	16.00
1.00 (better)	Offsides	2.00
	Throw-ins
2.40	Yellow cards	1.75 (better)
1.00	Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Empoli wins: 0
Draws: 0
Vicenza Virtus wins: 1
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

Empoli v Vicenza Virtus0–22026-10-23

Serie B table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Palermo	11	8	3	0	+12	27	Palermo won 3 of the last 5
2	Modena	11	7	2	2	+10	23	Modena won 3 of the last 5
3	Ascoli	11	5	5	1	+10	20	Ascoli won 2 of the last 5
4	Mantova	11	5	4	2	+4	19	Mantova won 1 of the last 5
5	Hellas Verona	11	4	4	3	+6	16	Hellas Verona won 2 of the last 5
6	Avellino	11	4	4	3	+5	16	Avellino won 1 of the last 5
7	Benevento	11	4	4	3	+4	16	Benevento won 1 of the last 5
8	Pisa	11	4	4	3	+3	16	Pisa won 1 of the last 5
9	Juve Stabia	11	4	4	3	+1	16	Juve Stabia won 3 of the last 5
10	Cremonese	11	4	3	4	+2	15	Cremonese won 3 of the last 5
11	Sudtirol	11	3	6	2	+1	15	Sudtirol won 0 of the last 5
12	Padova	11	4	3	4	-1	15	Padova won 2 of the last 5
13	Cesena	11	3	6	2	-2	15	Cesena won 2 of the last 5
14	Sampdoria	11	3	2	6	-7	11	Sampdoria won 2 of the last 5
15	Arezzo	11	3	2	6	-11	11	Arezzo won 1 of the last 5
16	Virtus Entella	11	2	4	5	-3	10	Virtus Entella won 1 of the last 5
17	Carrarese	11	3	1	7	-5	10	Carrarese won 2 of the last 5
18	Empoli	11	2	3	6	-7	9	Empoli won 0 of the last 5
19	Vicenza Virtus	10	1	3	6	-11	6	Vicenza Virtus won 1 of the last 5
20	Catanzaro	10	1	3	6	-11	6	Catanzaro won 0 of the last 5